The A-League Analyst: Week 15 Preview

Posted: January 15, 2016

a-league analyst

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC

Saturday January 16, 7:30pm

Match Odds

 

Western Sydney Wanderers controversially lost 3-2 to Melbourne City last week in what was a fantastic match. In a match where they gave as good as they got they dominated most attacking statistics other than the final score. Therefore losing their 10 match unbeaten streak certainly is no cause for concern.

Sydney FC eased to a 2-0 win over the lowly Newcastle Jets in a match marked by the scoring return of Ali Abbas after being cut down by Iacopa La Rocca at Wanderland back in November 2014. There is no doubt Sydney and Ali himself will be carrying extra motivation for this match albeit the culprit has since moved on.

Sydney Derby history is an interesting one with this seasons match a very tight affair with a combined 16 attempts on goal and three shots on target shared in a match Sydney won 1-0 against the run of play. The total history has Sydney with five wins, two draws and Wanderers with three wins with 27 goals shared, three over 2.5 goals and seven under 2.5 goals (four of which have been two goals exactly). Last year of course we were treated to five and seven goal thrillers.

Digging into the form of both teams this seasons we find that they are ranked at the top of the charts defensively.

 

Factor Western Sydney Sydney FC
Goals Conceded (Rank) 13 (3) 12 (1)
Shots Faced 40 (2) 29 (1)
Clean Sheets 6 (2) 7 (1)

 

Overall from an attacking perspective the Wanderers are slightly superior to Sydney but again not much in it.

If we look at the teams raw results though I think we can find a small edge.

Sydney have won six matches this season but have been afforded the luxury of playing and beating Newcastle three times and Central Coast twice. Their record outside of these matches is one win, six Draws and two losses, the win coming as mentioned in the first derby of the season. Conversely, the Wanderers have managed wins against fellow contenders Victory, City and Brisbane.

Despite last years events I think we will see a very tight match. The Betfair markets were expanded last week to include some half time options.  A combined 20 of these teams 28 matches have been level at half time with 14 of those 0-0. Again, recent history of the Derby suggests they can be enterprising opening halves with all 3 matches last season seeing goals in the first half although it took 88 minutes for the deadlock to be broken this year.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – The draw at half time for 0.5 units at 2.0+

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals for 1.5 units at 1.75+

 

Perth Glory v Melbourne City

Saturday January 16, 9:40pm

Match Odds

 

Perth Glory have been a bit of an enigma this season with their form proving hard to follow but generally they have been tough to beat thanks to a stubborn defensive rear guard. Their 23 goals conceded, two clean sheets and 76 shots faced actually lines up pretty well against City’s 24 goals conceded, one clean sheet and 90 shots faced (note the 90 shots faced is an A-League low).

Perth have a league low concession of shots from inside the box at 54% despite a season average of just 38% possession highlighting their game plan of sitting very deep and attacking on the break.

Melbourne City on the other hand have become very gung-ho with their 3-5-2 reminiscent of the great Kevin Keegan Newcastle United philosophy of “we will score more than you”. This has resulted in them having 12 of 14 matches go over 2.5 goals and an incredible 10 of 14 over 3.5 goals.

Matches in Perth are traditionally high scoring with 18 of the last 21 over 2.5 and 10/21 over 3.5.

Going backwards City’s conversion rates of shots on goal to goals have been 42%, 50, 17 (lost to Brisbane) 50, 67, 55, 45. I suspect this will be unsustainable in the long run given the league average of 23% but it is a testament to the quality of chances they have created and the attacking arsenal they possess.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 goals for 1.5 units at 2.3+

I’m keen to stick with the stats and back over 3.5 goals for 1.5 units at 2.3+, my only caveat being that the prospective high temperatures which can sometimes affect the scoring rates. In the four hottest temperature matches this season there have been just five goals scored and one over 2.5 so keep an eye on the weather and temper your bet to 0.75 units if it is still 30° pre match. If so, have another crack at over 1.5 goals on the second half for the other 0.75 units.