Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets
Saturday January 9, 5:15pm
Sydney FC have produced a good couple of attacking displays lately scoring six goals in two games with an improved rate of shots on goal of seven per match against a season average of 4.5 previously. There conversion rate is obviously up also however we have to consider that they have been against the teams ranked last and second last for shots faced and goals against conceding 2.2 goals (Mariners) and 1.7 (City).
They come up against the eight ranked team in terms of shots faced in Newcastle but the Jets are a much more solid defensive unit and have managed to concede on average 1.15 goals per match.
Sydney have the equal second best goals conceded at 12 and equal highest number of clean sheets at six. They have also only conceded more than one goal on three occasions to Victory, City and Adelaide (in the 93rd minute).
Newcastle regain the services or Leanardo and David Carney for this match which certainly improves their attacking output. Their season has been one of immense frustration in front of goal just 25 shots on goal at a rate of 1.9 per match. The ninth ranked team is at 3.8 shots on per match, so it is clear to see that they will struggle to create or score goals.
All these factors probably equate to the Sydney price trading around 1.45.
Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar
Sunday January 10, 5pm
Wellington suffered a 3-1 defeat to Central Coast last week and whilst they were in the match for large parts they were showing the signs of the strain of a lengthening injury toll, compounded this week by the loss of Manny Muscat (suspended). They have conceded three goals for two weeks running now from 16 shots on target against a previous season average of 1.45 goals per match from 4.4 shots on goal. With the likelihood of another debutant defender this week it is hard to see that they don’t concede at least one goal.
12 of the last 15 matches at Wellington have been over 2.5 goals and whilst Wellington have been struggling in front of goal, there is nothing to suggest that these stats can’t hold true given the defensive concerns.
Top of the table Brisbane Roar are travelling along nicely but would be bemoaning the loss of their three starting Olyroos players. Jamie Maclaren, Brandon Borello and James Donachie. Maclaren and Borello have scored 12 of the 22 Roar goals this season and therefore will present Coach John Aloisi with a few attacking problems however they have one of the deepest squads in the competition and with the “Slippery Fish”, Henrique to lead the attack I can’t see too many issues.
Brisbane rank in the top couple of teams for both attack and defence second for goals conceded, fourth for clean sheets, second for open play goals scored, shots on and fourth for shots on conversion.
It is very difficult to see Brisbane losing this match, but at no better than 2.00 I would prefer to back the over 2.5 goals at 1.75+ for 2 units.