The A-League Analyst: Week 1 Finals Preview

Posted: April 15, 2016 at 10:31 am

brisbane roar

Brisbane v Melbourne Victory

Friday April 15, 7:35pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Brisbane finished the regular season in third position but will be kicking themselves for not beating the Victory in Melbourne last week in a match that would have earned them the premiers plate. A weary Victory rested most of their first team last week so will be fresh for this match.

Key Statistics

Brisbane Roar

  • Brisbane were the number one ranked home team in the regular season W11 D2 L1
  • Brisbane ranked first for passing accuracy (81.5%) and completed passes (424 per match)
  • Brisbane ranked second for shots on target (5 per match) and fourth for conversion of those shots (31%)
  • Brisbane ranked sixth for shots faced (4.4 per match), equal third for clean sheets (8) and fifth for goals conceded (40)
  • In six elimination finals where third has hosted sixth, the home team has won four with two draws

Melbourne Victory

  • Victory won just four away matches, all against teams from outside the top-six losing four from five against the other top-six. (Note I have excluded the ‘away’ matches to Melbourne City)
  • Victory ranked sixth for shots on target (4.4 per match) and conversion of those shots (28%)
  • Victory ranked fourth on shots faced (4 per match), equal third for clean sheets (8) and equal second for goals conceded (33)

 

Betting Strategy

Melbourne Victory will be confident of causing an upset and have firmed in the betting since Besart Berisha won his appeal against suspension, however I can’t escape the strength of Brisbane’s home form contrasted by Melbourne’s poor away form.

Back on Betfair BACK – Brisbane for 2 units at 2.0 or better.

 

 

Aaron Mooy

Melbourne City v Perth Glory

Sunday April 17, 5pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Both these teams were very disappointing in the final round with plenty to play for. A win for City would have temporarily put them on top of the table last Friday but they lost 0-2 to eventual Premiers Adelaide. Perth only needed to beat Sydney to ensure their first home final in years but were thumped 4-0. Admittedly Perth missed Diego Castro and Chris Harold both of whom are expected to be fit for this match.

Key Statistics

Melbourne City

  • Melbourne City had a good home record W9 D2 L3. Against fellow top-six teams they won three and lost two from five. One was the aforementioned loss last week the other to Western Sydney without Aaron Mooy
  • City scored a regular season record of 63 goals with the number one rank for Shots on Target (5.8 per match) and conversion rate (36%).
  • City were ranked a lowly eighth for goals conceded (44), seventh for clean sheets (4) and seventh for shots faced (5.4 per match)
  • In six elimination finals when fourth has hosted fifth, the home team has won three and lost 2 with one draw (home team won on penalties)

Perth Glory

  • Perth’s away record W5 D1 L8 was OK however they failed to beat any of the other top-six teams losing six of seven with just one draw.
  • Perth ranked third for shots on target (5 per match) but ninth for conversion of those shots (26%)
  • Perth ranked seventh for goals conceded (42), sixth for clean sheets (5) and fifth for shots faced (4.1 per match). Their last seven matches saw them ranked first for shots faced 2.6 per match.

Betting Strategy

It is hard to ignore the fact that Perth played City of the park just two weeks ago. However, that was when City were on a five-day back-up and Aaron Mooy having just played two big matches for the national team was very jaded. This time it is Perth on the five day back up and worse still they have had to travel home from Sydney and back to Melbourne.

The match centres heavily on the Perth line up but even with Castro and Harold back I think it is tough for Perth.

Back on Betfair BACK – Melbourne City at 2.0+ for 1 unit