The A-League Analyst: Week 20 Preview

a-league analyst

Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday February 20, 9:40pm 

Match Odds

 

Perth are obviously on a roll winning four on the trot and playing good football as well. Last week they were far too good for an admittedly very poor Sydney FC. They are now just three points behind last weeks vanquished opponent in seventh position and on current form I certainly can see them making the Top Six at the expense of Sydney or even the Victory given both teams have Asian Champions League commitments.

If you are willing to forgive the one point gained from a possible nine through rounds 14-16 whilst they missed their Olyroos players, Brisbane are themselves travelling well winning four prior to that period and two of three since. They went back to the top of the table last week despite being held to a 2-2 draw at home to Newcastle.

Perth with their new look squad have found their shooting boots. In their last five matches they have scored 11 (excluding one penalty and an own goal) from 33 shots on target or 33%. Their first 14 matches yielded just 13 open play goals from 61 attempts at 21%. So you can see they have improved in both their conversion rate and chance creation.

Perth have also improved in defence restricting their opposition to just 12 shots on target in those five matches (avg 2.4) against an average of 4.67 shots faced in their first 18 matches.

If we again ignore Brisbane’s performances without their Olyroos we can see that they too have increased their attacking output against their average. They have had 90 (18 per match) total shots and 35 (7 per match) shots on goal in their last 5 matches. This against an average of 13 and 4.5 for the season overall. Their conversion rate of 40% of shots on goal is also tracking higher than their season average.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.7+ for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Perth at 2.6+ for 1 unit
Take note Jamie Maclaren is in some doubt. If he doesn’t play I will likely flip my staking sizes, investing more on Perth to win and less on the over.

 

bruno fornaroli

Melbourne City v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday February 21, 5pm

Match Odds

 

Melbourne City are coming off the back of an epic derby game when once again their Achilles Heal of not being able to hold onto leads came back to haunt them after twice going in front only to share the points. Midfielder Anthony Caceres was again sent off and misses this match along with Harry Novillo who has been stood down due to off field matters.

Central Coast did readers a huge favour last week giving up the half time lead in losing to Adelaide. Their second half goal difference now stands at -17 against just -3 in the first halves. At least they have been finding the net regularly scoring in 16 in 19 matches and eight from their nine away from home.

Collectively matches when either or both of these two have played this season have resulted in 141 goals from 36 matches or an average of 3.9 per match. To put that into context in the other 59 matches this season there has been 149 goals at an average of 2.5 per match.

In City’s 19 matches this season 16 have produced four goals or over and five, including five of their last six, while 11 of 19 Central Coast matches have seen 4+ goals including six of their last seven.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 1.7+ for 1.5 units