Te Rapa, Saturday 13th February 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 12, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: Out 4m

Weather Forecast: www.metservice.com

Friday 12th – Max 28°C. Sunny.

Saturday 13th – Max 27°C. Sunny.

 

R4 Sir Tristram Fillies Classic G2 2000m

Speed Map

R4 Sir Tristram Fillies Classic G2 2000m

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners had previous run in Royal Stakes
  • 4 of past 5 winners were having sixth run of their campaign
  • 5 of past 5 winners SP <$6.40

Previous Winner & Lead Up Result

2015 

1st Vavasour – SP$3.30 56.5kg BR6 – 6th up, 5 weeks, 2nd Group 2 Royal Stakes 2000m Ellerslie

 

2014

1st Hera – SP$6.40 56.5kg BR9 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Karaka 3Y0 Mile 1600m Ellerslie

 

2013

1st Fix – SP$2.70 56.5kg BR2 – 7th up, 5 weeks, 1st Group 2 Royal Stakes 2000m Ellerslie

 

2012

1st Zurella – SP$4.80 56.5kg BR7 – 6th up, 5 weeks, 5th Group 2 Royal Stakes 2000m Ellerslie

 

2011

1st King’s Rose – SP$2.30 56.5kg BR8 – 6th up, 5 weeks, 1st Group 2 Royal Stakes 2000m Ellerslie

 

Major Players 

1. Capella: Brilliant winner of the Group 2 Eight Carat (1600m) last start at Ellerslie. Lightly raced filly who possesses a strong finish, suggesting the step up to 2000m for the first time would be ideal. She has won three of five starts and had excuses on the other two occasions. Definitely a winning hope.

2. Duchess Kate: Stuck on quite well to win the Group 3 Desert Gold last start at Trentham, defeating Bella Court and Strada Cavallo. Yet to race beyond 1600m but pedigree being by Savabeel and out of a Prized mare suggests the rise to 2000m shouldn’t be a problem. Must be considered a leading contender.

5. Coldplay: This filly looks to be crying out for the extended distance of 2000m after two fast finishing performances at a mile. She bungled the start when beaten three lengths by Capella in the Eight Carat and then was again charging through the line behind Duchess Kate last start in the Desert Gold at Trentham. Lisa Allpress returns to the saddle for the first time in three starts and she managed to win the Group 3 Eulogy Stakes (1600m) on this filly.

6. Megawatt: The profile says this filly can run extremely well at huge odds. She placed third in the Group 2 Royal Stakes last start at Ellerslie, a race that has produced four of the past five winners of this event. Her benefit is that she has already had the run at 2000m and stuck on well to be beaten under two lengths by Sofia Rosa.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Megawatt – 1 unit at $21

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – Megawatt – 4 units at $5

 

 

R6 Herbie Dykes Stakes G1 2000m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 5 winners won their previous start
  • 3 of past 5 winners were female
  • 4 of past 5 winners had previous run in Thorndon Mile
  • 5 of past 5 winners had previous run at 1600m

 

Previous Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015

1st Soriano – SP$2.50 57kg BR3 – 10th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Group 1 Thordon Mile 1600m Trentham

 

2014

1st Costume – SP$9.60 57kg BR9 – 9th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Group 1 Thordon Mile 1600m Trentham

 

2013

1st Sangster – SP$6 59kg BR8 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 2nd Listed Winter Racing Carnival Anniversary 1600m Trentham

 

2012

1st Shez Sinsational – SP$2.50 57kg BR5 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 11th Group 1 Thorndon Mile 1600m Trentham

 

2011

1st Red Ruler – SP$5.90 59kg BR1 – 13th up, 2 week, 15th Group 1 Thorndon Mile 1600m Trentham

 

 

Major Players 

1. Kawi: Dominant weight-for-age horse in New Zealand and deserves to be favourite here. Won the Thordon Mile last start, beating main rivals Stolen Dance and Soriano. That was under set weights and penalties conditions so better suited in this race. Early price of $2 seems fair considering he has consistently beaten those in this field.

5. Soriano: Didn’t exactly have a clear passage last start when fifth behind Kawi in the Thordon Mile but this mare just seems to find bad luck. Her racing pattern forces her back in the field and then she needs tempo to suit to finish strongly late.

6. Stolen Dance: She got within a long neck of Kawi last start in the Thorndon Mile and was also second at 2000m in the Zabeel Classic at weight-for-age prior to that. She is such an honest mare and may be able to settle a little closer to the speed this weekend if she can jump cleanly from barrier two. She needs to be in front of Kawi at the 200m mark to beat him.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Kawai – 5 units

 

R8 NRM Sprint G1 1400m

Speed Map

R8 NRM Sprint G1 1400m

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners was SP favourite
  • 2 of past 5 winners were mares
  • 2 of past 5 winners had previous run in Zabeel Classic
  • 3 of past 5 winners won the Telegraph at previous run

 

Previous Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015

1st Sacred Star – SP$2.20 59kg BR10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Group 1 Telegraph 1200m Trentham

2014

1st Viadana – SP$11.80 57kg BR7 – 5th up, 6 weeks, 4th Group 1 Zabeel Classic 2000m Ellerslie

2013

1st Final Touch – SP$4.80 57kg BR2 – 10th up, 3 weeks, 1st Group 1 Telegraph 1200m Trentham

2012

1st Veyron – SP$5.70 59kg BR3 – 5th up, 6 weeks, 2nd Group 1 Zabeel Classic 2000m Ellerslie

2011

1st Mufhasa – SP$6.50 59kg BR9 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st Group 1 Telegraph 1200m Ellerslie

 

Major Players 

1. Volkstok’n’barrell: Returns home for first run in New Zealand since close second in New Zealand Derby in February last year. Prepared for this with tidy second in barrier trial behind Turn Me Loose at Avondale. He was beaten less than two lengths first-up in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) behind Boban last campaign so don’t be surprised if he sprints well here.

3. Sacred Star: Last start was a complete forgive on the shifting track at Trentham. He won this race last year and was narrowly beaten by Viadana the year prior. Perfectly suited to these conditions and drawn to get a cosy run just behind the pace. Finally gets to a weight-for-age race after being competitive in handicaps giving away weight this campaign.

4. Vespa: Battled on OK in the Telegraph and there were many with excuses on that day. He tends to improve second up and is also better suited at 1400m should peak for this event. He had no luck when a close fifth to Kawi two starts ago in 1400m Group 1 at weight-for-age in the Makfi Challenge.

5. Xtravagant: Pressured up front and folded as an extremely short price favourite last start in the Levin Classic. Connections pointed the finger at the shifting track as the major reason for his below par performance so a return to a firm surface is positive. His win in the 2000 Guineas was exceptional and there is an ambition to send him across for the Group 1 Australian Guineas if he performs well here. You have to go back to 1994 (Western Red) to find the last three-year-old winner of this race. The scratching of Mabeel should allow him to control the speed as he likes.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Volkstok’n’barrel – 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – Volkstok’n’barrel – 4 units

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider