Te Rapa – December 12: The Betfair Insider

Posted: December 11, 2015

Betfair Insider

Te Rapa Saturday 12 December 2015

Track – Dead 4

Rail – true

Weather forecast – www.metservice.com

Friday 11th – Max 23, chance of showers

Saturday 12th – Max 24, cloud clearing

 

R7 Waikato Cup Group 3 2400m

Speed Map

R7 Waikato Cup Group 3 Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried < 55.5kg
  • 1 of past 5 winners had won at their previous start
  • 1 of past 5 winners were SP favourite
  • 2 of past 5 winners had lead up in Group 2 Counties Cup

Previous Race Winners and Lead Up Result

2014 – Surpass – SP $9.60 55.5KG BR8 – 10th up, 3 weeks, 4th Set Weights 2400m Randwick

2013 – More Than Sacred – SP $2.20 53kg BR6 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 1st Rating 85 2400m Pukekohe

2012 – Annie Higgins – SP $7 53kg BR12 – 6th up, 3 weeks, 4th Group 2 Counties Cup 2100m Pukekohe

2011 – Dawn Ghost – SP $6.30 54.5kg BR1 – 6th up, 3 weeks, 12th Group 2 Counties Cup 2100m Pukekohe

2010 – Bruce Almighty – SP $29.10 54kg BR4 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 7th Listed Wanganui Cup 2040m Wanganui

 

Major Players

#2 VavasourSurged late last start to defeat Farm Boy and Authentic Paddy in Group 3 Counties Cup 2100m, giving every indication a rise in distance to 2400m would be beneficial. She is unbeaten at this track in two previous starts but one big negative is the rise in weight from 53kg to 59kg here. It is not ideal for a mare to be giving weight to male rivals in a handicap staying event and recent history suggests those at the top of the weight scale can struggle in this contest. Keen to take her on at $2.50.

#4 Saint Emilion His last five starts have resulted in four wins, including an arrogant display last start in a rating 85 at Otaki over 2300m. More Than Sacred showed in 2013 that a progressive stayer can rise from benchmark grade to win this race. There looks little pressure in the early stages so one can expect he is likely to enjoy a comfortable lead. If that occurs, I don’t think they will catch him.

#6 Delago’s Secret Should have finished closer to Vavasour last start as had his momentum halted approaching the home turn and then was checked out of a run by the eventual winner. I liked the way he managed to regather and be beaten only three lengths. He is a winner of the Group 3 City Of Auckland Cup at 2400m so the rise in distance should be of benefit and he meets Vavasour 2kg better at the weights.

#8 Mister Impatience Australian punters might be quite familiar with this enigmatic horse. He won a race by seven lengths at Ballarat back in May before being beaten further as a heavily backed favourite at Randwick his next start. He is a UK import that can go quite keen and failed to stay the 3200m of the New Zealand Cup last start. Mike Moroney has given him a month to freshen up and it would not surprise to see him bounce back to form if he puts his best foot forward.

 

Betting Strategy

LAY – WIN – Vavasour Have rated closer to $4. $2.50 in early markets is rock bottom.

BACK – WIN – Saint Emilion Progressive stayer. Rated $3.00 favourite.

 

R8 Cal Isuzu Stakes Group 2 1600m

Speed Map

R8 Cal Isuzu Stakes Group 2 Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of 5 past winners had at least three weeks since previous run
  • 1 of past 5 winners SP favourite
  • 3 of past 5 winners had won their previous start

Previous Race Winners and Lead Up Result

2014 – Sports Illustrated – SP $7.70 57kg BR1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM75 1400m Ellerslie

2013 – Diademe – SP $5.70 57kg BR6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 6th Group 2 Auckland Breeders’ Stks 1400m Pukekohe

2012 – Shez Sinsational – SP $2.60 57kg BR12 – 6th up, 5 weeks, 1st Group 3 Lindauer Stakes 2000m Ellerslie

2011 – Lady Kipling – SP $7.60 57kg BR4 – 6th up, 3 weeks, 1st open handicap 1600m Pukekohe

2010 – November Rain – SP $6.50 57kg BR7 – 5th up, 4 wks, 9th Group 2 Coupland’s Mile 1600m Riccarton

 

Major Players

#3 Stolen DanceDominated from the front in a slowly run race last start when winning the Group 3 Eagle Technology Stakes 1600m at Ellerslie. Hard to fault her form as her last seven starts have produced five wins and two narrow seconds. Not likely to get the same comfort in front this week but deserves to be favourite given her brilliant record.

#4 Consensus –The last horse to defeat Stolen Dance and she did it carrying 1kg more in a 1400m race earlier this preparation. They meet on level terms here although one could argue that Stolen Dance was a touch unlucky given she was held up for a run in the home straight. Her last two performances have been solid in distance events (2000m and 2100m) and I quite like her coming back to the mile from a three week freshen. Maps perfectly from barrier two and is quite appealing on an each-way basis given she has been hugely competitive against males and now returns to her own sex.

#5 Rasa Lila Her racing pattern forced her to concede a big start to Stolen Dance last start and while she rallied gamely in the straight, she fell just short. Both meet again here on level terms but there does appear a touch more speed in this race which should be of benefit to Rasa Lila. Expect her to be charging on late and be right in the finish.

#12 Charmont Produced an uncharacteristic disappointing performance last start behind Soriano in the Group 2 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes at Avondale. Her form last preparation including a close third in the Group 1 NZ Oaks suggest she can definitely bounce back and should appreciate a rise in distance. Tends to race on speed and should be afforded a nice run from barrier four.

#13 Pipi Beel Lightly raced mare who has only been exposed to stakes racing on one previous occasion and she wasn’t disgraced when third to Savaria and Platinum Witness in the Group 3 Lowland Stakes 2100m last preparation. Just did enough in easier company when winning last start but appears open to sharp improvement and can definitely surprise at good each-way odds.

Betting Strategy

BACK – E/W – ConsensusRated $6.

LAY – E/W – KissesRated $21 so keen to Lay her based on the early market price.