Taking on Bookies’ Promotions: AFL Money Back Promos

Posted: March 23, 2016

The Promo Arber is back providing Betfair customers with details on how to maximise corporate bookmaker promotions.

BetSmart with the Promo Arber’s instructions below.

Sportsbet AFL H2H Money Back Promotion

www.sportsbet.com.au

2015 Estimated Results: + $398

Promo Mechanic: Place a H2H bet on any match in rounds 1-8 and if your team leads at any break but lose get your money back up to $50.

Max Profit Strategy: Back (with Sportsbet) and Lay (with Betfair) the team you think will lose.

The Edge: If your team leads at any break and goes on to lose, you’ll get your stake back with Sportsbet and win your Lay bet with Betfair.

Key Considerations: Staking is very important here – you need to stake the correct amount on your Lay bet to optimise your advantage. Identifying teams that are likely to lead at a break and go onto lose can also help maximise your profitability.

Melbourne v Richmond. Sunday 24th April, 7:10pm EST

A)   Place a $50 bet on Melbourne at $2.05 with Sportsbet

B)   Place a $45.96 Lay bet on Melbourne at $2.28 with Betfair


If Melbourne lead at any break but lose the match:

A)   $0 position ($50 stake refunded due to result)

B)   $43.66 profit (45.96 Lay profit minus $2.30 with 5% exchange commission)

Result: $43.36 profit


If Melbourne fail to lead at any break and lose the match:

A)   $50 loss

B)  $43.66 profit (45.96 Lay profit minus $2.30 with 5% exchange commission)

Result: -$6.34


If Melbourne win the match:

A)   $52.50 profit

B)   $58.83 Lay loss

Result: -$6.33

(Back Stake + Winnings) / (Lay Odds – Commission)

Back Stake = The amount you Back bet with the Corporate Bookmaker
Winnings = The amount you can win from your Back Bet. (Stake x Odds) – Stake
Lay Odds = Current Lay Odds available on Betfair for the same team
Commission = Percentage Commission expressed as a decimal. 5% = 0.05

Calculating Lay Amount on Melbourne Example

Corporate Bookmaker Back Odds: 2.05
Betfair Lay Odds: 2.28
= ($50 + [($50 x $2.05) – $50)] / ($2.28 – 0.05)
= $102.5 / $2.23
= $45.96

Results if applied to 2015 Rounds 1-8

  • Total matches: 72
  • Lead change games at breaks: 23
  • That’s a total of 32% of matches from rounds 1-8 we can capitalise on

How we could have profited using some assumptions:

  • Average profit where your selected team leads at a break & loses: $45.00
  • Average loss when your team wins or failed to lead at a break and loses: $-4.00
  • Total number of the 23 games that we successfully chose the right team:  14

Successful Cash Backs: 14 x $45.00 = + $630

Unsuccessful Cash Backs: 58 x $4.00 = – $232

Total Profit: $398

Data Scientists’ AFL Predictive Model

The Data Scientists’ predictive AFL Model has arrived for the 2016 season. Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, their AFL Prediction Model takes a purely mathematical approach to predicting the outcomes of weekly matches.

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