SATURDAY SPECIALS: HORSE RACING TIPS

Saturday racing tips can be found in one place: Saturday Specials! Get Saturday racing tips across premier metro racing in Australia from the Betfair Hub’s expert team of form analysts. Includes betting strategy, form comment and market odds for every tip.

The Saturday Specials, Saturday Racing Tips are provided by form analysts who specialise in pro punting within their preferred metro state. The expert team includes Chris Camilleri, Linton Chataway, Terry Leighton, Shane Ciurleo and Lachlan Mosley of Winning Edge Investments.

Head to the Betfair exchange for all horse racing markets.


SATURDAY SPECIALS: HORSE RACING TIPS | JULY 2 2022

FLEMINGTON – SATURDAY RACING TIPS FROM CHRIS CAMILLERI

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: RACE 8 | #12 Tuvalu

Consistent gelding that continues to produce ratings required to be winning here. Has the early speed to sit outside of the leader and be given every chance.

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5 | #4 Rock Up at < $3.00 

Rock bottom odds on the Exchange as favourite in an even race. Tough ask going 2000m to 2500m against gallopers that have produced superior career ratings to date.


 

 

 

RANDWICK – SATURDAY RACING TIPS FROM LINTON CHATAWAY

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 5 | #5 Shades Of Rose for 5 units

Her peak figure came at the end of last prep on a Heavy 9 surface. She trialled up brilliantly for her return and Tim Clark sticks with this horse after riding her at her last race start and at the trials. From barrier one I expect her to control the race from the front and  be hard to get past in the Rosehill straight.

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4 | #5 Black Queen to win 1 unit 

Has performed on heavy tracks in the past however, I am happy to be against the current favourite as jockey Kerrin McEvoy is very much out of form having not ridden a winner in his last 50 rides. I plan to lay the horse early in the day if there is money to be matched as I expect the market to take this horse on closer to jump based on the jockey’s current form.


BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 6 | #1 Karacasu for 3 units

KARACASU was excellent down the Flemington straight when 2L 3rd to a potential superstar in Passive Aggressive. Really hit the line well late. Draws well and is well weighted.

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2 | #2 Alleboom for 1.5 units

ALLEBOOM’S best would beat these but he’s been a touch disappointing in both runs back. Should be thereabouts but thought he had every chance last start and only whacked away.


BELMONT – SATURDAY RACING TIPS FROM TERRY LEIGHTON

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 9 | #12 Secret Plan

Senior hoop goes on for the apprentice after a flashing-lights run last time out. Bob Peters’ up and comers on the minimum weight, from good draws, are a constant recipe for success. Think he’ll finish over them.


CORAL-ECLIPSE STAKES (SANDOWN UK) – SATURDAY RACING TIPS FROM RORY FLANAGAN

BACK: Race 4 (Sunday 00:35 AEST) | #5 Native Trail for 3.5 units

There were some knockers of the manner in which he won the Irish 2,000 Guineas, but I’m happy to attribute this to the conditions being softer than preferred. There should be ideal Summer ground for him here to showcase his best. In receipt of the 3yo allowance, I can make a strong case to say he should be winning this.


Saturday Specials

View the Saturday Specials racing tips and click through the odds to find markets on the Betfair Exchange. Plus we have links to full meeting previews for horse racing in all major metro cities. You’ll Saturday Racing tips, betting advice and analysis for every race by our pro analyst team.

You can also find major previews for every Group 1 race in Australia thanks to our leading analysts Dean Evans, John McLeod, Lachlan Mosley and Terry Leighton. They offer key runner analysis, speed map guide and betting strategy across all the elite races in the calendar year.

Do you fancy betting against the favourites? Why not visit our Faves to Lay page? The twice-weekly Faves to Lay highlights our pro analysts’ best Lay bets for all major metro meetings on Wednesday and Saturday. Get the inside word on which market picks are under the odds according to Betfair’s pros.

All this and plenty more can be found on the Betfair Hub. Get started with your latest selection of Saturday Specials best bets below. Play Your Way at Betfair: Australia’s Largest Betting Exchange.

 

EXPERT RACING TIPS: GEELONG

HUB VIC Racing

Expert Victorian racing tips and betting strategies for Victorian racing are online now. Key runners, racing tips & betting strategy for the Victorian racing meeting at Moe are provided by Betfair analyst Chris Camilleri. Victorian racing tips and analysis of each race and betting strategy are online now! Only on the Betfair Hub.


GEELONG | VICTORIAN RACING TIPS | FRIDAY 1 JULY 2022

Rail: +9m 1700m – 800m, +11 Remainder | Track Condition: Heavy8

Expecting an advantage to horses that will settle of the rails in run and in lanes 3+ in the straight.

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 3 | #10 Soho Queen 

Very keen on the Waterhouse & Bott-trained filly at second career start. Goes straight to the front from barrier 1 and will prove very tough to run down out to 1447m.


Race 1 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

1. Cheval Saint
13. Atmosphere
10. Thesecondatportsea
9. Princess Tosen

Betting Strategy

Low confidence race with a majority of the field on debut over the 1347m. Will prove to be a strong form race moving forward.


Race 2 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

9. Thalursian
5. Kikuyu
6. Permutation
2. Arohaboy

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Thalursian $2+

Very strong debut performance, sitting outside of the speed and only getting run down late. Would have taken plenty of improvement off that performance.


Race 3 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

10. Soho Queen
7. Nerrina Lolita
8. Pontificate
9. Snow Business

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Soho Queen 

Very keen on the Waterhouse & Bott trained filly at second career start. Goes straight to the front from barrier 1 and will prove very tough to run down out to 1447m.


Race 4 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert

4. Lord Pierro
3. Logan Court
11. Xylina Warrior
6. Star Stock

Betting Strategy

Low confidence race with nothing splitting the top half of the market and giving us an edge. Other races appeal as betting propositions


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Race 5 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

3. Lorenzetti
8. Northern Bliss
2. Bold Bourbon
7. Colombe Dor


Race 6 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

2. Morean
7. Butter Blonde
11. Luna Solar
12. What A Sham

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Morean 

Hit the in strongly in a high rating race over 1000m last start. Would have taken a heap of improvement off that performance and will be the one flashing home.


Race 7 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

3. Bellman
9. Swear By Her
2. National Choice
8. Indented Heart

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Bellman 

Resumed well when heavily backed over 1350m last start. Strips fitter now and with the early speed will lead and be able to dictate the speed to suit with the inform Jarrod Fry on board.


Race 8 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

1. Mister Me
2. No Surrender
10. Vagrant
5. Nothing Silly


Race 9 | VIC Racing Tips | Key Runners

8. Telecaster
2. Azoustic
16. Aspen Colorado
4. Sachem

Betting Strategy

Low confidence race to finish off the meeting with a big field and many having the required form to be in the finish, other races appeal as betting propositions.


EXPERT RACING TIPS: SATURDAY

HUB VIC Racing

Find a range of betting tips and expert advice available on Victorian thoroughbred racing from Betfair analyst Chris Camilleri. Racing tips are online now…

BETFAIR RATINGS: THOROUGHBRED RACING TIPS

 

Betfair’s own Data Scientists have created a prediction model which produces ratings that you can use as Horse Racing Tips for nearly every thoroughbred meeting in Australia. The Model is built using Punting Form data. This includes Sectional Time data, benchmark ratings, jockey strike rates and dozens of other features to deliver horse racing tips for punters.

You can use these outputs to find value in the Betfair Exchange. Backing or laying selections that stand out in these horse racing tips.



MORE RACING TIPS AROUND AUSTRALIA

The Betfair Hub is the home to some of Australia’s best horse racing content. This gives punters access to tips, while offering betting advice on horse racing across Australia. Tips are provided for Australia’s major races, including regular previews for metropolitan meetings across the country. Look no further than the Betfair Hub as your number one horse racing resource.

Victorian Horse Racing Tips: Expert Form Analyst, Chris Camilleri 

Check out Chris Camilleri’s mid-week selections, analysis and betting strategy.

Check out Chris Camilleri’s Saturday selections, analysis and betting strategy.

Victorian Racing: Trial and Form Expert, Glenn Ingram

Check out Glenn Ingram’s Late Mail and Watch List selections, analysis and betting strategy.

NSW Horse Racing Tips: Expert Form Analyst, Linton Chataway

Check out Linton Chataway’s mid-week selections, analysis and betting strategy.

Check out Linton Chataway’s Saturday selections, analysis and betting strategy.

South Australian Horse Racing Tips: Expert Form Analyst, Lachlan Mosley

Check out Lachlan Mosley’s selections, analysis and betting strategy.

Western Australian Horse Racing Tips: Expert Form Analyst, Terry Leighton

Check out Terry Leighton’s SA selections, analysis and betting strategy.

Queensland Horse Racing Tips: Expert Form Analyst, Mat Smith

Check out Mat Smith’s QLD selections, analysis and betting strategy.

Tasmania Horse Racing Tips: Expert Form Analyst, Matt Reid

Check out Matt Reid’s Tasmanian selections, analysis and betting strategy.

New Zealand: Expert Form Analyst, Jason Tan

Check out Jason Tan’s New Zealand selections, analysis, and betting strategy.

International: Expert Form Analysts

We have a range of Betfair Analysts offering their selections, analysis and betting strategies on major European and Dubai horse racing, including Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and the Derby and Oaks meetings at Epsom.

Click here to see all of Dean Evans’ Feature Race Previews for Group 1 races in Victoria and New South Wales. 

BetSmart Ratings with Daniel O’Sullivan

BetSmart provides ratings, prices and form commentary for all Moonee Valley night meetings exclusive to the Hub. They are helmed by Daniel O’Sullivan of The Rating Bureau, Australia’s leading supplier of horse racing data, software and analysis. The Rating Bureau’s WFA Performance Ratings are an industry-leading assessment of horse quality. 

The Rating Bureau has also provided a series of articles to improve your understanding of betting and form. You’ll find articles on everything from racing essentials to what you must consider when doing the form.

Check out Dan O’Sullivan’s BetSmart Ratings. 

Learn to be a smarter punter with the BetSmart Education series.

What is the ratings model?

The Ratings Model provides rated prices for every runner at selected thoroughbred meetings across Australia, offering an alternative from standard horse racing tips.

Using Punting Form data, the model is able to calculate its prediction of each runner’s percentage chance of winning that race, before then converting it to what it believes that runner’s true odds should be, a.k.a. that runner’s rated price.

Using these rated prices, Betfair customers can then compare the model’s price to that of the price on offer on the Exchange as a unique format of horse racing tips.

The model can help you identify value, outlining the value percentage of each runner in the race where applicable.

How do I read the ratings?

Ratings are numerical measures that are an expected rating for each horse for the upcoming meeting. Prices are formulated by multiple factors including past performance, upcoming race conditions, trainer and jockey statistics and a range of other variables considered by our Data Scientists.

NB: The Data Scientists’ best-profiled runner is highlighted in grey. The ‘Value’ % is calculated looking at the difference in win probability based on the Analysts rated price v current Exchange market price.

Ie. 20% win rated chance vs 12.5% win chance in the market is a 7.5% difference in winning chance. This is calculated by: (1 / model odds) – (1 / price).

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: PERTH CUP

HUB WA Racing
HUB WA Racing

Betfair’s WA Racing Expert Terry Leighton takes a deeper look at the Perth Cup from Ascot.

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: BERNBOROUGH PLATE

Get tips and expert advice available on Queensland thoroughbred racing from John McLeod at MacBet.

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: ATA STAKES

Betfair’s WA Racing Expert Terry Leighton takes a deeper look at the A.T.A. Stakes from Ascot.


ASCOT 18/12/2021

Rail Position: 13+m Entire | Expected Track Condition: Good 4


Summary

While Platoon took the points from the penultimate lead up to the Perth Cup (Kingston Town), the ATA has been an extremely strong form reference for the Group 2 Feature in a week and a bit.

The combination of the rail out at the 13m pad and south westerlies forecast for the afternoon should mean we see a fair, if not off pace day, but I reckon I’m more chance of winning lotto than predicting a track pattern successfully.


A.T.A Stakes – Race 7

Speed Map

Our lead-and-breeze horses from the Towton Cup haven’t progressed to the ATA, so we will have a less defined speed map.

Utgard Loki (barrier 1) is a big chance to kick up and lead, while roughie Decoy Noxious (9) lands in the breeze. Black Shadow (8) will look to use Decoy Noxious as a bit of cover, coming across underneath him, to park in a very similar spot to his last couple of wins. I’m expecting more aggression from the old boy Taxagano (6). Settling rearward for a horse who really only has one gear isn’t his go.

Stafford’s Lad (10) simply cannot buy a gate and will be back last, giving most of the other fancies a little head start. Smaller field does negate that, however.

Some weaker leaders engaged here, which means Jason Brown may have to pull the trigger on Black Shadow earlier than he’d like. That, along with the extra few kg’s (reckon I’ll have a sharp rise in weight post-Christmas too) could leave him susceptible late. Most likely looking for one off-speed.


Final Field

1. Black Shadow

What price a month ago that Black Shadow would be TOPWEIGHT in a black type event? Wild stuff.

Arguably will start a shorter price in the $400,000 Perth Cup, than in this $125,000 event, with the weight scale of the former far more in his favour (drops to 53kg’s with Trap For Fools lumping the top weight). While the weight conditions look well and truly against him, you could argue he’s been winning with a degree of comfortability which still sees him go very close. Winning form.

2. Paddy’s Shadow

Had a minor setback after the Ascot Gold Cup, but Racquel Williams looks to have that behind him after a highly encouraging effort in the Towton.

Looks to be going just as well as when she won the Bunbury Cup earlier this year. A big beneficiary of the barrier draw, look for Shaun O’Donnell to smoke the pipe 3 back the fence and look for gaps on straightening. Will have the most economical run.

3. Midnight Blue

The early Perth Cup favourite has had some well-documented soundness issues as we see the dreaded bar plates lobbed on.

No matter how well you can train, missing work and being a month between runs (especially as a one-batting stayer) makes life awfully difficult. I’ll be taking him on here but won’t put a line through him for the Cup.

4. Taxagano

Look for a more aggressive ride on Taxagano and while we’ve learnt the hard way to pen this bloke (2020 Northerly Stakes anyone?), he just doesn’t look to be going well enough to impact.

5. Dom To Shoot

For those who think Dom To Shoot will run out a strong 2200m, he probably backs himself here.

While I am not in that camp, he is the most intriguing point-of-difference runner in this race. His only go past the mile was in last year’s Kingston Town Classic, when running third to Truly Great & Inspirational Girl.  His last couple have shown he’s regaining some of his old touch and you’d be forgiven for a little speculatory each-way investment if you think he’ll run the trip.

6. Decoy Noxious

Barely been competitive in 60+’s and attacks a black type staying event. Did Summer nom the wrong horse? (Bella’s Idol.)

7. Pure Devotion

Really disappointed with the last effort of Pure Devotion. I was super keen she’d run a big race under the conditions of the event and while Black Shadow was far too good – she had the right run to run a clear second. The weights are now really getting tipped in her favour (4kg on Black Shadow from the Towton & 7kg for beating him home two starts ago) and the shades go on. Now or never for Pure Devotion.

8. Stafford’s Lad

Connections have clearly upset someone at RWWA.  Barrier 13 of 13 in the Towton, 8 of 10 in the Tatts, 13 of 13 in the Gold Cup, 11 of 11 in the Boulder Cup, 13 of 14 in the Broome Cup & 9 of 9 in the Kimberley Cup.  And now 10 of 10 here.  Stiff.  Clearly saving pole position for the Perth Cup.

It’s impossible to knock what he’s done, making sustained runs and never shirking the issue.  The smaller field, questionable speed up top and weight swing on Black Shadow make this clearly his best chance of getting back in the winner’s circle.

9. Truly Reliable

Wouldn’t surprise me if this Ray Vincent-trained stayer will eventually make the grade as an all ages, black type stayer, but I think it may be one season too soon.

10. Utgard Loki

The blowout runner.  Around the $30-50 mark at the time of writing (not many markets up, so this likely irrelevant), he’s now coming to start number five for Adam Durrant, and it’s his first go past the 2000.

With clear air he may well have knocked off Bella’s Idol 2 starts ago and then was on a cold inside pad at his most recent.

Throughout his career has lacked a killer blow, but going back through his form of the last 12 months (2nd to Neufbosc in this race in 2020, 3rd to Trap For Fools in the ATA, unlucky 4th in the Bunbury Cup), with a little bit of track bias to suit (looks unlikely), he can be in front for longer than his price would suggest.


Terry Leighton’s Selections

1st – 7. Pure Devotion

2nd – 1. Black Shadow

3rd – 8. Stafford’s Lad

4th – 2. Paddy’s Shadow

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) — Midnight Blue at < $5.00

Could have had any of five runners on top, but Midnight Blue is about a quarter of the price I’ve marked him. If Grant & Alana get him to win off the setback, with the bars on – then that’s just too good for me.


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