EXPERT RACING TIPS: SUNSHINE COAST

HUB QLD Racing

Find a range of Queensland racing tips and betting advice available on Gold Coast thoroughbred racing with Betfair’s Queensland form analyst Shane Ciurleo. Queensland tips are offered from several racetracks around the state and include top selections, best bets and analysis. Queensland racing tips are online now.


SUNSHINE COAST | QUEENSLAND RACING TIPS | 2 JULY 2022

Rail Position: True entire Course | Track Condition: HEAVY 8, possible downgrade.

Expect they get wider and wider in the straight as the day goes on.

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 7 | #2 Battleton

Class runner, best Trainer / Jockey combo. Wet track the biggest danger.

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5 | #14 Catwalk Criminal

Under the odds coming out of a low Beaudesert maiden and has drawn the worst part of track.


Race 1 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

9. Badoosh
5. Fast Talking
8. Jakama
7. Hostage Of War

Betting Strategy

Happy to watch and learn in the first.


Race 2 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

11. Red Rubi
7. Maximum Output
2. Edit
1. Baanone

Betting Strategy

No clear opinion, not a lot between them.


Race 3 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

5. Kingston’s Here
8. Goldsborough
7. Mort Doyle
4. The Tenor

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Kingstons Here


Race 4 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

15. The Rockwell Scale
12. Lime Soda
4. Princess Bojack
7. Muschialli

Betting Strategy

No bet. Not a lot between them.


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Race 5 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

2. Northern Express
18. Billionaire Baby
8. Spooky Spirit
14. Catwalk Criminal

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Catwalk Criminal 


Race 6 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

8. Sweet Thomas
2. Le Don De Vie
5. Bartholomeu Dias
9. Alakahan

Betting Strategy

Anticipate this will be a slug fest by this time of day so I’m happy to leave them.


Race 7 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

2. Battleton
6. Majestic Colour
10. Indiscreetly
1. Subterranean

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Battleton


Race 8 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

3. Holyfield
1. Buffalo River
9. Salateen
16. Majestic Shot

Betting Strategy

Will be determining bets based on track pattern throughout the day. Salateen looks a potential each-way play if the track gets wetter.

BACK (EACH-WAY) – Salateen


Race 9 | Queensland Racing Tips | Shane Ciurleo’s Selections

2. Morethannumberone
13. Glitter Strip
14. Love Sensation
17. Wilmot Pass

Betting Strategy

Hard to be split these, track pattern and weather will determine any bets. I think Morethannumberone and Glitter Strip are the best horses in this race. 

EXPERT RACING TIPS: MURRAY BRIDGE

You’ll find SA racing tips right here on the Betfair Hub. Selections, form comments and betting tips on SA Racing are brought to you by SA Racing’s Betfair analyst Lachlan Mosley, of Winning Edge Investments. Who is our expert betting on this week? SA racing tips for the next meeting are online now.

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MURRAY BRIDGE | SA RACING TIPS | SATURDAY 2 JULY 2022

Rail: True | Track Condition: Soft 6 | Weather: Overcast, 15

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 6 | #1 Karacasu for 3 units

KARACASU was excellent down the Flemington straight when 2L 3rd to a potential superstar in Passive Aggressive. Really hit the line well late. Draws well and is well weighted.

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2 | #2 Alleboom for 1.5 units

ALLEBOOM’S best would beat these but he’s been a touch disappointing in both runs back. Should be thereabouts but thought he had every chance last start and only whacked away.


Race 1 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections

7. KLABEL
5. ATTRITION
1. TEST THE LAW
12. PRANCE N DANCE

Betting Strategy

No bet race. Market moves late might be best guide.

KLABEL is an expensive purchase who looked the best at the trials recently. Deserves the favourite quote.

The same could be side about ATTRITION who had a soft trial. Gets the services of Jason Holder and draws for an easy time of it.

TEST THE LAW was a fraction disappointing as hot favourite last start but has race experience on his side.

PRANCE N DANCE draws for a good run and was closing well last start.


Race 2 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections 

1. SHAMINO
5. LITCHFIELD COUNTY
2. ALLEBOOM
4. AADELAD

Betting Strategy

Been a while between drinks for SHAMINO but I think he can bounce back to the winners stalls from what we saw last start at Sandown. Draws well and is a 2x winner from 3 starts at the track. Nice claim offset for Neindorf.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY was scratched last weekend in preference for this. Goes well first up and gets in light with the 2kg claim for Price.

ALLEBOOM’S best would beat these but has been a touch disappointing in both runs back. Should be thereabouts while AADELAD should be doing his best work late first up from a break. A must for the multiples.

BACK (WIN) – SHAMINO for 1.5 units

LAY (WIN) –ALLEBOOM for 1.5 units


Race 3 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections 

2. SCOTTISH DANCER
1. PRINCE OF HELENA
3. BEA TEMPTED
4. LAKES FOLLY

Betting Strategy

SCOTTISH DANCER comes across from a luckless effort in a strong Swan Hill Cup. Trainer has bought him over here before and was a comfortable winner at this track.

PRINCE OF HELENA comes off an impressive win at Albury last start. Drawn well, nice claim and likes soft tracks.

BEA TEMPTED ran excellent first up from a break. Races well here and has great 2nd up stats.

LAKE’S FOLLY is always hard to leave out of the multiples and must go in.

BACK (WIN) – SCOTTISH DANCER for 1.5 units

BACK (WIN) – BEA TEMPTED for 1.5 units


Race 4SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections

9. SUNNY GREEN
7. CANIDAE
1. SO SAY ANGEL
11. HEADPHONES

Betting Strategy

Tricky race.

SUNNY GREEN has been getting back and running on of late. Gets to a more suitable bigger track here and draws out. Will be steaming home at a price. Good value!

CANIDAE will do the same. Expect pace on here and he’ll be flying home right over the top.

SO SAY ANGEL has been racing well this prep. Can be forgiven the past two starts and deserves to be right in the money.

HEADPHONES is racing well at odds this prep. Ran well behind the talented BIG SUE for 2nd last start and no reason why he can’t go one better here.

BACK (WIN) – SUNNY GREEN for 1 unit

BACK (WIN) – CANIDAE for 1 unit


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Race 5 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections 

3. SOWETO HAZE
11. WHSIKEY N WOMEN
1. YURI ROYALE
2. HASSLEFREE

Betting Strategy

No bet race.

SOWETO HAZE didn’t have a great deal of luck at Donald last start. Forgive that effort. Trainer doesn’t bring them here that often, so the placement must be respected.

WHISKEY N WOMEN needed the hit out first up but was solid through the line for 8th. Should strip fitter and draws for a cosy run.

YURI ROYALE resumes from a break. Ran some great races last prep and first up form is solid.

HASSLEFREE is racing well. Drawn well and gets the services of Baren Vorster. Deserves to be favourite.


Race 6 | SA Racing | Key Runners 

1. KARACASU
4. QUEMAN
5. JAAZEB
14. TOTALLY DISCREET

Betting Strategy

KARACASU was excellent down the Flemington straight when 2L 3rd to a potential superstar in Passive Aggressive. Really hit the line well late. Draws well and is well weighted.

QUEMAN looks the real deal and boasts a 2nd behind KARACASU albeit 4.5L away. Trialed nicely.

JAAZEB caught the eye first up from a break. 2nd up form reads well, drawn soft, nice claim and goes well here.

TOTALLY DISCREET was probably in the wrong part of the track last start and can be forgiven.

BACK (WIN) – KARACASU for 3 units


Race 7 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections 

9. PIMMS PARTY
6. MR MARATHON MAN
10. ZOULAH
12. PERFECT COMMAND

Betting Strategy

Pretty hard watch if you were on PIMMS PARTY last start. Was dead-set bolting for a run and just never got out. Has been knocking on the door of late and the wide barrier and bigger track will suit. Looks ready to win.

MR MARATHON MAN trailed well then ran a much improved 2nd at odds last start. No reason why he can’t hold that form.

ZOULAH was an eye-catcher first up from a break and the same could be said about PERFECT COMMAND.

BACK (WIN) – PIMMS PARTY for 2 units


Race 8 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections 

1. LORD BOUZERON
12. PERFECT ILLUSION
14. BEAR ARMS
11. AZZUREOUS

Betting Strategy

Hard to knock the form of LORD BOUZERON of late. Drawn for a cosy run and meets SMILING ASSASIN 4.5kg better at the weights. Should give a bold sight up-front.

PERFECT ILLUSION has been building up towards a win. Ran a big race at odds last start. Stable rider takes over the reigns and has drawn well. Ready to win 5th up.

BEAR ARMS has been racing well of late down the south East. Probably wants it a genuine heavy but if the track is chopping up late in the day, it should be in the finish.

AZZUREOUS is another that gets in well at the weights. Races well here and Todd Pannell sticking is a good sign.

BACK (WIN) – LORD BOUZERON for 1.5 units 

BACK (WIN) – PERFECT ILLUSION for 1.5 units


Race 9 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections

6. NEXT DIMENSION
7. UNLACED
1. TONGSAI BOSS
9. BIG SUE

Betting Strategy

NEXT DIMENSION has been completely luckless the past two starts. Was backed $17 into $5.5 favourite last start and had zero luck behind BIG SUE. Think he can turn the tables here and a senior rider looks the key.

UNLACED was a good winner last start. Has to go up a level here but has always shown good ability. Is 1/1 track/distance.

TONGSAI BOSS draws wide but gets back anyway and will be flooding home late while it’s hard to knock BIG SUE’S form.

BACK (EACH-WAY) – NEXT DIMENSION for 1 unit win, 2 units place


Race 10 | SA Racing | Lachlan Mosley’s Selections

7. SITTING BULL
4. DAUNTING MAGIC
13. GLOVED
2. WOTUWANT

Betting Strategy

No bet race. Tricky one to end the day.

SITTING BULL comes from a lowly Strathalbyn BM54 but won with authority and can go on with things here.

DAUNTING MAGIC did best work late first up. Will strip fitter and retains the services of Kayla Crowther.

GLOVED was a good winner here 3 starts back. Did a bit too much up-front and knocked up last start. Can be forgiven and ridden with a sit today, while WOTUWANT caught the eye late last start.


WEDNESDAY SPECIALS: BEST BETS

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WEDNESDAY SPECIALS: HORSE RACING TIPS | JUNE 22

CRANBOURNE – WEDNESDAY RACING TIPS FROM CHRIS CAMILLERI

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: RACE 7 | #5 SACRED COMMAND

Very keen on the Chris Waller-trained gelding that resumed strongly over 1419m at Sale last start. Would have taken plenty of improvement off that performance and maps to get a soft run behind the leading group from barrier 6. 

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: RACE 5 | #5 FOR REAL LIFE AT <$3.70

Got the run of the race last start and was able to sprint best off a moderate tempo, this race is much tougher and drawn awkwardly in barrier 7.


CANTERBURY- WEDNESDAY RACING TIPS FROM LINTON CHATAWAY

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: RACE 2 | #6 MARITIMA FOR 3 UNITS WIN

 I expect from the gate Nash will aim to have her closer in the run this time, and if she replicates the last start closing sectionals she will just win this.

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: RACE 1 | #8 NEVER FAILS FOR 1 UNIT WIN

Enters this race third up and at peak fitness however I felt he was a bit plain in the straight last start, and the closing sectionals reflect that. He is taking up too much market percentage so I am happy to risk at the price.


GAWLER- WEDNESDAY RACING TIPS FROM LACHLAN MOSLEY

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: RACE 4 | #7 EXOPIPI FOR 3 UNITS

EXOPIPI caught the eye on debut at Mildura when stormed home from well back to grab 3rd on the line. The extra furlong will only benefit here and gets the services of Jason Holder. Trainer usually places them very well.

BEST LAY (WIN) OF THE DAY: RACE 6 | #1 BETTA EDDIE FOR 1 UNIT

BETTA EDDIE is always around the mark but lacks that killer blow in races and has lost as favourite the past two. Consistent but just doesn’t win!


DOOMBEN- WEDNESDAY RACING TIPS FROM SHANE CIURLEO

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: RACE 5 | #3 ENTERPRISE MIA

She looks a real “box ticker” with this set up today. Map favors today, settling the extra 1L closer will be the difference. She was nice run in harder grade last time, form franked with winner just missing in listed grade on Saturday. 

BEST LAY OF THE DAY: RACE 8 | #4 MAGNUS BELLAGIO AT <$5.00

Had all the favors in winning last start. Will find this harder, and the map looks a trickier today. Happy to lay at sub $5.

FAVES TO LAY: SATURDAY MARCH 19

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EXPERT NZ RACING TIPS: TRENTHAM

New Zealand Racing Tips on the Betfair Hub below

Find Trentham (NZ) racing tips, analysis and key runners as part of the Betfair Hub’s specialty New Zealand thoroughbred racing content, from one of NZ’s leading form analysts Jason Tan. Trentham NZ racing tips with full in-depth preview and analysis of each race and betting strategy are online now!

Click here to check out the markets at Trentham for New Zealand Oaks Day.


TRENTHAM (NZ) RACING TIPS | 19 MARCH 2022

Rail: True | Track Condition: Dead 5

Track Conditions: The weather leading into Saturday is likely to contain some rain. The track is also being watered, which means the turf will likely be a DEAD 5 and possibly a DEAD 4 at the start of the race meeting. Bottom line is, it’s unlikely to be GOOD.

Trentham is a spacious left-handed turf track that unfortunately has been blighted by unpredictable bias that has been seemingly caused by poor weather and arguably how the track has been managed.

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 6 | #8 IMPERATRIZ WIN (4 units)

The horse to beat is IMPERATRIZ and her best form level should have her being too classy for some well-performed geldings. IMPERATRIZ is drawn to sit just behind the main speed and her turn-of-foot is the best in the race.

BEST LAY (WIN) OF THE DAY: Race 7 | #7 CAN I GET AN AMEN (to lose 4 units)

There’s not much between TOP BRASS, BURGUNDY ROSE, OKAY PAL and CAVALLO VELOCE in a race I’m going to take on CAN I GET AN AMEN.


Race 1 | NZ | Key Runners & Expert Tips

4. SLIPPER ISLAND (Rated Price $2.75)
9. PERFECTLY SUITED (RP $3.50)
8. DISS IS DRAMATIC (RP $6.00)
3. TRAV (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

This race for two-year-old horses brings together a couple of interesting formlines. SLIPPER ISLAND debuted well at Ellerslie, showing good speed before being narrowly beaten by subsequent G1 Sistema Stakes winner Lickety Split. That pair drew more than 5-lengths clear of their opposition and the event rated okay.

PERFECTLY SUITED was an excellent debut winner at Whanganui and that performance suggested she’s one of the horses to beat in this. DISS IS DRAMATIC returns from a Karaka Million failure, but her debut was very good. If she can deliver that rating back left-handed then she can win.

Not much advantage and always a question with where juveniles are at, so will stay out. I wouldn’t mind specking Perfectly Suited and Diss Is Dramatic at right prices.

NO OUTLAY

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Race 2 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

11. SACRED PEARL (RP $3.25)
6. SHARPIE (RP $4.50)
5. LEBANESE TRADER (RP $8.50)
4. MOCHATINI (RP $11.00)

Betting Strategy

I have been suitably impressed with the recent performances of SACRED PEARL and she is the horse to beat in this Special Conditions Maiden (MAAT). Whilst she lacks some early speed, she’s drawn to get an economical run, not too far off the leaders and the big track will suit her powerful finish.

SHARPIE presents at some value off his best efforts and he backs-up after looking a little lost around Trentham last weekend. He is an improver out of that, given a let-up following a Stakes 4th-placing.

LEBANESE TRADER and MOCHATINI are the other chances, although I can’t find that latter as short as some markets.

BACK (WIN) – SACRED PEARL WIN (1.25 units)

BACK (WIN) – SHARPIE WIN (0.75 unit)

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Race 3 NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

8. SERGIO (RP $5.00)
5. KELLY COE (RP $5.00)
11. BARNEY RUBBLE (RP $8.00)
3. CHASE (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

This isn’t a high confidence race, but the best of SERGIO would take him close to winning this and he’s one of the main horses to beat alongside KELLY COE. SERGIO has been freshened, but has trialed and can potentially lead without a huge amount of pressure. BARNEY RUBBLE and CHASE can run well. Either horse would be worth a smaller outlay at the right price.

BACK (WIN) – SERGIO (0.75 unit) 7th

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Race 4 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners& Expert Tips

12. FAMILY TIME (RP $5.00)
2. BEAUDZ WELL(rp – $5.00)
3. RANGITATA (RP $6.00)
13. DARLINGTON COUNTY (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

Pretty comfortable that the leading chances are FAMILY TIME, BEAUDZ WELL and RANGITATA. They are well very well-handicapped under the race conditions with only BEAUDZ WELL “appearing” to be out of form. I don’t think he’s been running that badly, but in events that haven’t suited his get-back pattern. At Trentham, over this distance, he can be a factor. Not a race I’m too keen on betting into unless we get some decent overs.

NO OUTLAY

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Race 5 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

4. MAI TAI (RP $4.50)
8. SAMIAM SEUSSIE (RP $5.00)
3 SINARAHMA (RP $5.50)
11. ISLA JAY (RP $11.00)
5. ZOLA EXPRESS (RP $11.00)
7. LES CRAYERES (RP $11.00)

Betting Strategy

This is a competitive race for mares and the horses that I don’t mind backing are two that should be well suited by the map and a speed that might not be more than a sit and sprint. MAI TAI brings an excellent form level and should receive an ideal run tracking the leaders. I like that she has been freshened-up after being fair at Group 1 level on this track in January, and her recent trial was okay.

ISLA JAY can run a very cheeky race if she’s allowed to lead. She might be a query at the mile, but having not tried it yet, I’m happy to speck her at a bigger price. SINARAHMA is a leading chance, but I can’t imagine her getting to a price I’d be happy to back her at given her racing pattern.

BACK (WIN) – MAI TAI WIN (1 unit)

BACK (WIN) – ISLA JAY WIN (0.5 unit)

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Race 6 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

8. IMPERATRIZ (RP $2.40)
1. ON THE BUBBLES (RP $6.00)
2. SHAMUS (RP $8.00)
3. I WISH I WIN (RP 10.00)

Betting Strategy

The Group 1 Levin Classic for three-year-old’s is run over 1600m and it’s fair to say that there are a few runners who are a touch weak over the distance. The horse to beat is IMPERATRIZ and her best form level should have her being too classy for some well-performed geldings.

IMPERATRIZ is drawn to sit just behind the main speed and her turn-of-foot is the best in the race. I don’t see the race being run faster than a good speed, which is a plus, as a hard run mile might find her out.

ON THE BUBBLES was given every favour when winning last time and it was a ‘workmanlike’ performance. He’s drawn to be pushed forward and he’s a leading chance. SHAMUS has been freshened and after a disappointing run over 2000m, drops back to a mile, which looks his trip. He hasn’t posted a big figure yet, but his winning record must be respected as some of the formlines tie in positively.

I WISH I WIN is a runner I could entertain backing at a bigger price and he wasn’t given a winning chance from his position and given how the race was run last time he met ON THE BUBBLES. He isn’t as well off against him at set-weights, but he looks ready to peak over the mile now. IMPERATRIZ is the main bet here.

BACK (WIN) – IMPERATRIZ WIN (4 units)

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Race 7 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

3. ROSE ‘N’ POWER (RP $5.00)
7. CAN I GET AN AMEN (RP $8.00)
4. TOP BRASS (RP $10.00)
5. BURGUNDY ROSE (RP $10.00)
6. OKAY PAL (RP $10.00)
2. CAVALLO VELOCE (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

This is a very hard race, with plenty of horses capable at their best, but it’s difficult knowing how close they might be to that. ROSE ‘N’ POWER is generally reliable and is the horse to beat by my assessment. She can find the lead and roll at an even speed. She fights hard in a finish and her top level is more than good enough.

CAN I GET AN AMEN will appeal to many given her last start run in the G1 Telegraph, with it being well-documented the subsequent deeds of ROCH ‘N’ HORSE, LEVANTE and MASCARPONE. That was clearly a career-best run and given she’s only the winner of three races and has a get-back, run-on pattern, I see her as a trappy bet at too short a price.

Can she replicate that and win? I’m likely to be against the market on this and she looks a good LAY. There’s not much between TOP BRASS, BURGUNDY ROSE, OKAY PAL and CAVALLO VELOCE in a race I’m going to take on CAN I GET AN AMEN.

LAY (WIN) – CAN I GET AN AMEN – WIN (to lose up to 4 units)

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Race 8 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners

1. SELF OBSESSION
4. BELLATRIX BLACK
5. GLORY BOUND
9. LE VILLI

Betting Strategy

The 2022 Group 1 New Zealand Oaks 2400m for three-year-fillies will see SELF OBSESSION go out a deserved favourite. She has been the standout filly in New Zealand over 2000m+ and the Oaks distance should ideally. Her tactical speed means she will likely race on or near the lead, and whilst that hasn’t been a common pattern of previous Oaks winners, most of those favoured to win haven’t had that pattern, with one that did, More Than Sacred, managing to sit outside of leader, controlling the tempo, before winning easily.

There are three horses that come out of a different formline, The Sunline Vase, that I see as the most capable of upsetting SELF OBSESSION. Namely, BELLATRIX BABE, GLORY BOUND and LE VILLI. BELLATRIX BLACK sprinted well from a good position to win that race and she has had a good prep for this. She doesn’t have the same mapping favours for the Oaks but has a better sprint than most. GLORY BOUND showed that at her best, she is close to the favourite. She should get an ideal run from barrier 7, and if she settles, she can be a factor.

LE VILLI doesn’t have a great racing pattern and will be giving most other start, but she has been very good this prep and was sectionally outstanding in the Vase. A strong staying test should suit her and she’s a runner that can swoop into the finish. I’m happy to back any or all those horses at the right price, but obviously SELF OBSESSION is the number one seed.

5 unit outlay

BACK (WIN) — SELF OBSESSION (2.75 units at $2.50+)

BACK (WIN) — BELLATRIX BLACK WIN (0.75 unit @ $9.00+)

BACK (WIN) — GLORY BOUND WIN (0.75 unit @ $9.00+)

BACK (WIN) — LE VILLI WIN (0.75 unit @ $9.00+)

LAY (WIN) — THE PERFECT PINK

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Race 9 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners

3. THE FEARLESS ONE (RP $3.50)
1. JUSTFIXIT WULDYA (RP $8.00)
2. SHOCKALLIA (RP $8.00)
6. HONG KONG (RP $8.00)

Betting Strategy

THE FEARLESS ONE is the horse that appeals as the hardest to beat, even though he’s building up a record a placegetter, rather than a winner. The fact remains that he’s been running well and horses that have beaten him recently, Family Time and Darlington County are leading chances in the higher-class St Leger.

One waiver is that is ‘run-on’ pattern is a punishing one, so it’s hard to be too bullish, but he’s the value and horse to beat. JUSTFIXIT WULDYA is worth a smaller outlay and should be well-suited by the increased distance of this race compared to the mile.

BACK (WIN) – THE FEARLESS ONE WIN (1.25 units)

BACK (WIN) – JUSTFIXIT WULDYA WIN (0.5 unit)

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FAVES TO LAY: WEDNESDAY

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FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING

Your feature race preview is online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, tips & betting strategy for the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments. Only on the Betfair Hub.

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: HERBIE DYKE STAKES

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KARAKA MILLION 2YO: FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Find betting tips, analysis and strategy on one of New Zealand’s richest races – the Karaka Million 2YO – headed by NZ form analyst Jason Tan. Racing tips are online now!


KARAKA MILLION 2YO 

Distance: 1200m Rail Position: True Position | Track Condition: Dead 4

The Karaka Million 2YO for the last 5 years has been dominated and won by horses from the Te Akau Racing Stables and trained by Jamie Richards, firstly in partnership (with Stephen Autridge), before being head-trainer for the most recent three editions.

Ellerslie is an undulating, right-handed track that generally races fairly, and the last-10 winners have all had experience running in races ‘that way around’ before the Karaka Million 2yo. All five of Jamie Richards’ recent winners have had a start between 8 and 15 days before the Karaka Million 2yo, with only Melody Belle (2017 – 8th) not winning that start.

Past winners over the last 10 years have been positioned on the lead at the 600m through to five and six-lengths from the leader at that point. Eight of the last 10 winners have come within lanes one to five in the straight from the 400m, with Ockham’s Razor (2012, barrier 12 of 14) coming 10-wide, and Probabeel (2019, barrier 14 of 14) entering the straight seven-wide before drifting progressively closer to the inside fence.

SPEED MAP

There is GOOD early speed in the 2022 Karaka Million 2yo, and it might end up being run faster than GOOD. MASCARINTO can lead, with GIBRALTER RISING and TIME RULER able to work forward from middle draws. DYNASTIC and FELLINI are drawn to potentially track behind the main speed and look the most likely to be advantaged by how the race is run. I expect horses like WOLVERINE and DISS IS DRAMATIC to work across to the rail and sit in the back quarter of the field for the first-400m of the race.


FINAL FIELD             

1. Fellini (6) (Rated Price $5.50)

He has progressed well in three starts and developed into a professional racehorse. His preparation best fits the profile of Richards’ five previous winners of the race and most importantly he showed at his last start that he’s at as good a form level as anything else, winning well and sprinting a 34.12 last-600m. Fellini is drawn to get the right run with the only knock being Bosson hasn’t chosen to ride him! Back.

2. Mascarinto (4) (RP $31.00)

Has shown a lot of early speed and has the side-winkers added to sharpen him further for the big race. Got out-sprinted last start and I expect that they’ll ride him more aggressively this time to make others behind work harder. Would need to find a couple of lengths but might with that gear addition.

3. Sacred Satono (1) (RP $26.00)

Drawn to track the lead and so will get his opportunity if the race is run truly. He has been given every chance to win in three starts to date but has come up short each time. Will be advantaged in the unlikely event that the track plays towards the inside. Need to find more overall though.

4. Time Ruler (9) (RP $11.00)

His last start win rated as one of the single best performances of any horse in this race. The blinkers were applied, and he lived up to an early trial and high stable opinion (albeit low-key). He had a few niggles earlier in his preparation and looks right now. His early price looks well worth taking on the assumption he can at least repeat the level of his win.

5. Lord Cosmos (14) (RP $31.00)

To the eye his win at New Plymouth was good, although he has a bit to find overall. Johnathan Parkes rode On The Bubbles to win this race last year from barrier 14, but there looks too much speed underneath him this year for him to win without a fair bit of luck.

6. Dynastic (5) (RP $5.50)

This colt has the blinkers and tongue-tie added to his gear and has been anointed by Richards and Bosson as the stable’s ‘number one seed’. He certainly looked like he could’ve won his debut race, but for a wide run and conservative tactics. Pricing him is terribly hard as his profile is against what has recently worked, and one must ‘bonus him’ well beyond his only run. My approach is to lean against him at his price without potting him heavily.

7. Alabama Gold (15) (RP $46.00)

He looks genuine but is likely to have to work too hard to get the right run to win this race. Horses that have overcome a draw like this were a class above their year (Probabeel and On The Bubbles). This maiden certainly hasn’t shown that to be the case in his performances.

8. Gibraltar Rising (10) (RP $91.00)

He hasn’t shown he’s up to the level required so far having had few excuses in three runs to date.

9. Wolverine (13) (RP $5.50)

One of the favourites and she appeared to cope well with her first run right-handed last time when promoted to victory after being beaten a nose on the line. That race was only a sprint home, so she did have more to offer and showed at Te Rapa she can sustain a longer run off a stronger speed. She’ll settle in the back quarter of the field and will need to be clearly superior in order to win, and even though she’s unbeaten, I’m not convinced that she’s that far ahead of them over 1200m right now. I’m happy to lay her at her current quote.

10. Pacific Dragon (12) (RP $11.00)

Demoted last time after beating Wolverine, and her overall performances have been consistent without being outstanding. She is unlikely to get the same run as last time, but with luck she could slot into a position from where she could be competitive. Needs to find a length though.

11. Grace ‘n’ Grey (3) SCRATCHED

12. Gwen Stephani (8) (RP $251.00)

Had no excuses when beaten by Time Ruler last time. She was simply out-gassed and needs to find lengths in order to be competitive.

13. Diss Is Dramatic (11) (rp – $15.00)

She was impressive winning her debut and it rated very well, even though the horse she beat (Knickerless) was ordinary at her next start. Only having one start and not having run right-handed hasn’t been a successful formula for winning the Karaka Million 2yo over the last 10 years, however. That said, one could entertain a small speculative outlay on her if she bounced-back out in price.

14. Timeless (2) (RP $501.00)

Hasn’t run to the necessary level to suggest that she’ll be remotely competitive here.

15. Time Flies EM (7) (RP $15.00)

Comes into the race with the scratching of Grace ‘n’ Grey. He hasn’t lived up to his starting prices of $1.20 and $1.30 in two starts so far, but those are big indicators of his ability. The blinkers are being applied and that looks a very positive factor for him. He hasn’t been beaten far by Fellini and Pacific Dragon, so it’s conceivable that he could win with improved resolve. Another worth a small speculative outlay if he makes the price.

SELECTIONS

1st – #1 – Fellini

2nd – #6 – Dynastic

3rd – #9 – Wolverine

4th – #4 – Time Ruler


SUMMARY

The 2022 Karaka Million 2yo shapes as a far more competitive race on paper than the last five years. The two market elects (DYNASTIC and WOLVERINE) have enough question-marks to say their prices are too short to back right now. I’m happiest to lay WOLVERINE. That leaves FELLINI, as the runner that presents as the right top-pick at the right price. TIME RULER found sharp improvement when winning his lead-up race and he’s worth a smaller outlay in the hope he repeats that on the 8-day back-up (Cool Aza Beel won of that in 2020). DISS IS DRAMATIC and TIME FLIES can both run well, but both haven’t had ideal preparations leading in.


BETTING STRATEGY (5 Units Outlay)

Check out full market for the Karaka Million 2YO on the Betfair Exchange.

BACK (WIN) — Fellini WIN (0.75 unit @ $5.50+)

BACK (WIN) — Time Ruler WIN (0.25 unit @ $11.00+)

LAY (WIN) — Wolverine (4 units)

Check out full market for the Karaka Million 2YO on the Betfair Exchange.


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