Meeting Overview
Rail Position: +1.5m 900m-400m; True remainder | Track Condition: Good 4
Generally the crown of the track is the best ground so expect jockeys aiming to get to these lanes in the straight.
BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 3 | #1 Parry Sound (WIN) for 5 units
The Subzero race each year at the carnival is very much always a race about timing and the horse entering this race in the best form right now is Parry Sound. Won at a big price last time but the win was good, and this race is easier on paper. Stable is bullish on the horse’s chances and expect James McDonald to give this horse every possible chance to win again.
BEST LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4 | #8 Brookspire (WIN) to win 1 unit
Blinkers go on for the first time here however she is now deeper into her preparation and the stable is dropping her back in distance from the mile. She is good but I just think there are other horses here that have had better setups heading into this, so I am happy to risk at the current price.
Race 1 | KEY RUNNERS
9. Warmth
2. Chart Buster
5. Heir Apparent
11. Carartie
Betting Strategy
At the current prices there is no edge so happy to sit out and identify any potential track bias in the first.
Race 2 | KEY RUNNERS
2. Wheelhouse
6. Dzsenifer
5. Bigboyroy
1. Reloaded
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) — Wheelhouse for 2 units
Really won well last Saturday at the same track and trip and it is difficult to see anything turning the tables on him here. He is a horse hitting this race at the right time in the right form and hard to beat again here.
BACK (EACH-WAY) — Dzsenifer for 0.5 units WIN & PLACE
Gave Wheelhouse a race last time and expect that these two will be the ones fighting out the finish again. If Wheelhouse isn’t winning the race I would expect Dzesnifer to be winning.
Race 3 | KEY RUNNERS
1. Parry Sound
2. Wapiti
3. Fun Fact
5. Outlandos
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) — Parry Sound for 5 units
The Subzero race each year at the carnival is very much always a race about timing and the horse entering this race in the best form right now is Parry Sound. Won at a big price last time but the win was good, and this race is easier on paper. Stable is bullish on the horse’s chances and expect James McDonald to give this horse every possible chance to win again.
Race 4 | KEY RUNNERS
7. Snapdancer
3. Kiku
10. Lady Of Luxury
5. Salateen
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) — Snapdancer for 4 units
This has been the target race for some time, she ran well in this race last year when a good third. Stable has identified that she goes best when a bit fresher so she enters this race 2nd up where she has had 3 starts 2nd up for two wins and a second.
BACK (WIN) — Kiku for 1 units
Ran super last time in a strong race, the concern is going from a heavy track to a good track but her form throughout her career is super consistent and cannot be ignored in a race like this.
LAY (WIN) — Brookspire for 1 unit
Blinkers go on for the first time here however she is now deeper into her preparation and the stable is dropping her back in distance from the mile. She is good but I just think there are other horses here that have had better setups heading into this, so I am happy to risk at the current price.
Race 5 | KEY RUNNERS
6. Away Game
14. Isotope
4. Totally Charmed
7. Fituese
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) — Away Game for 5 units
Returned with a super first up run and a career PB behind a horse who looks a future group 1 winner. She is a fitter horse than some of her main rivals going into this. From barrier 1 expect James McDonald to have her parked just in behind the pace and if she gets the splits in the straight hard she will be hard to beat.
Race 6 | KEY RUNNERS
4. Eleven Eleven
3. Beau Rossa
2. Apache Chase
1. Kementari
Betting Strategy
No bets – the Magic Millions Cup is an open race this year with many chances, so happy to stay out.
Race 7 | KEY RUNNERS
9. Coolangatta
11. Russian Conquest
10. Soaring Ambition
7. Thelwell
Betting Strategy
No bets – unfortunately there is no edge at the current prices, the market has found its order so happy to stay out.
Race 8 | KEY RUNNERS
3. King Of Sparta
2. Jamaea
6. Starman
11. Me Me Lagarde
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) — King Of Sparta for 4 units
Returned well first up, looping the field and running on well to suggest the 1400m will be suitable 2nd up at this point in the horse’s career. Nash is a powerful jockey so expect the horse to settle underneath him during the run and this horse has the turn of foot to win this race in the last 100m.
Race 9 | KEY RUNNERS
4. Miami Fleiss
3. Wisdom Of Water
7. Ef Troop
8. Dr Why Not
Betting Strategy
BACK (EACH-WAY) — Wisdom Of Water for 1 unit to WIN & PLACE
Somewhat back to his better form last start and stable has had this race picked out since the last win. He can be competitive in what is a weak race to finish the card.
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