GLORIOUS GOODWOOD DAY 5 | OVERVIEW
Rail: True
Stalls: centre straight course
Track Conditions: Good to Soft. Clear forecast, possible minor shower late on..
Expected advantage: Far side. On-speed in 1400m+ races. .
1000m-1200m races have stalls centrel, low numbers beneficial with fresh ground near true rail
The cutaway is removed now and it’s all hell breaking loose along the fence as fresh ground is revealed. You don’t want to be too far away from that fast lane when turning into the straight or it is curtains for you.
Best Bets
BEST BACK OF THE DAY
BACK: Race 3 | #1 Free Wind (WIN) for 6 units at $4.00+
FREE WIND is miles clear of this field on ratings and ability. She’s rated 4kg higher than them but only has to give away 1kg. This should be a steering job for Frankie as she bounces back from her blip in the Hardwicke Stakes. It was the first time she’d missed the top two (11121115) on turf and I’ve forgiven her as she’ll enjoy a slower galop and ease in the ground.
TIME LOCK travels powerfully and might loom up, but she’s not found all that much at the end of her races.
Selections
3. ZAMAN JEMIL
13. MAMILLIUS
2. TEMPLE BRUER
8. MONSIEUR KODI
Rory Flanagan’s Analysis
leaving this one up to the jockeys to decide where they’re running today. They abandoned the fast lane on the nearside fence and haven’t returned after the cutaway was removed. Not betting.
Betting Strategy
No bet
Selections
7. SWEET WILLIAM
4. POST IMPRESSIONIST
1. HMS PRESIDENT
6. ADJUVANT
Rory Flanagan’s Analysis
SWEET WILLIAM is an improving staying star and I think he will continue the upward curve here with a strong win and head to the Ebor full of steam. Only query is the soft track but it should keep drying out.
POST IMPRESSIONIST can be totally forgiven for the turgid passage in the Northumberland Plate. Drawn 19 of 19, his race was over the minute the gates were drawn. He can bounce back here with more luck and fitness under his belt and bolted in on soft at York to close out last season.
HMS PRESIDENT a tough ask to carry the weight but so honest and consistent, burns anyone who leaves him out of exotics.
ADJUVANT gets the booking of Dettori but is a shade overbet as a result. Career best form this prep but don’t feel like this is the ideal race having been beaten by most of these.
Betting Strategy
4.5u Sweet William
1.5u Post Impressionist
Selections
1. FREE WIND
5. TIME LOCK
4. RIVER OF STARS
2. LUISA CASATI
Rory Flanagan’s Analysis
FREE WIND is miles clear of this field on ratings and ability. She’s rated 4kg higher than them but only has to give away 1kg. This should be a steering job for Frankie as she bounces back from her blip in the Hardwicke Stakes. It was the first time she’d missed the top two (11121115) on turf and I’ve forgiven her as she’ll enjoy a slower galop and ease in the ground.
TIME LOCK travels powerfully and might loom up, but she’s not found all that much at the end of her races.
Betting Strategy
BACK: FREE WIND 6u
Selections
20. SPANISH STAR
8. APOLLO ONE
5. ORAZIO
11. TACTICAL
Rory Flanagan’s Analysis
SPANISH STAR has 5 wins from 7 over this course and distance and is in fine form this prep. I expect another bold showing despite the rise in class.
APOLLO ONE keeps knocking on the door, placing in three big-field handicaps this season. If the rail is the place to be he might finally break through for a deserved success.
ORAZIO has been crunched everywhere as people cotton onto the most likely soft ground sprinter who still has ample upside. He finished behind a few of these at Ascot but back onto soft ground on which he is 2/2. Definitive favourite but a field of 25 means potential traffic issues.
TACTICAL a shot in the dark but always puts in his best runs fresh after a spell. 3 months off might do him the world of good coming into this as he slides down the weights.
Betting Strategy
SPANISH STAR 0.5u
APOLLO ONE 0.5u
ORAZIO 2u
Selections
1. URBAN SPRAWL
5. SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT
4. ALPHA CAPTURE
3. CHARTWELL HOUSE
Rory Flanagan’s Analysis
Wanted to be on URBAN SPRAWL the other day when the track was leaderish and they scratched to wait for better ground. Could be the key today if it isn’t too soft.
SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT just bumped into one better after working hard to the lead the other day. The quick backup has been working this week at both Goodwood and Galway so no reason why she can’t run well again if fully sound.
ALPHA CAPTURE needs everything to go right but could improve back on soft ground for the first time in a while.
Betting Strategy
URBAN SPRAWL 2u
SOPHIA’s STARLIGHT 2u
Selections
No bets
Betting Strategy
Not playing
Selections
No selections
Betting Strategy
A massive pack of non-winners, and the few winner types with good attitudes don’t show up on turf. Genuine lottery.