FEATURE PREVIEWS: GOLDEN SLIPPER

Racing tips and betting strategies for the Group 1 Golden Slipper in 2024 are available now! Preview, speed map, race analysis, Golden Slipper tips and betting strategies from Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments.

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Dean Evans

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GOLDEN SLIPPER

The world’s richest 2yo race won by the likes of Shinzo, Capitalist, Vancouver, Pierro, Sepoy, Sebring, Miss Finland, Stratum & Dance Hero.

Historical Profiling

Barriers:

From 67 Golden Slippers the most prolific winning barrier is Barrier 1 with 10 wins.
• Barriers 1 to 4 have won 26 times
• 5-8 have won 16 times
• 9-12 have won 16 times
• 13-16 have won 9 times

Position In Running

There is an incredible piece of insight gleaned when you watch the replays of the past 20 Golden Slippers (wet tracks in red):
• 2004: Dance Hero from gate two led all the way on the rail
• 2005: Stratum from gate six led all the way on the rail
• 2006: Miss Finland from gate seven was at the back: well back and hugged the rail
• 2007: Forensics went from gate one: stayed on the rail
• 2008: Sebring from gate five settled well back and hugged the rail
• 2009: Phelan Ready from gate fifteen: dropped right back to last but hugged the rail
• 2010: Crystal Lily from gate one was on the rail
• 2011: Sepoy from gate eight was 3rd on the rail
• 2012: Pierro from gate one hugged the rail
• 2013: Overreach from gate one was third on the rail
• 2014: Mossfun missed the start from gate 11 and hugged the rail the whole way to win
• 2015: Vancouver sat 3 wide with cover and won
• 2016: Capitalist sat 3 back on the rails and came out in the straight to win
• 2017: She Will Reign made a beeline for the rails after a slow getaway and wins
• 2018: Estijaab led all the way on the rails
• 2019: Kiamichi led all the way on the rails, coming out in the straight
• 2020: Farnan led on the rails, coming out in the straight, placegetters both on the rails
• 2021: Stay inside sat in the 1×1 and won comfortably. Anamoe was last on the fence and ran 2nd
• 2022: Fireburn settled back from gate 1 and hugged the rails to the turn to win
• 2023: Shinzo settled midfield on the fence and hugged the rails to win

18 of the past 20 Golden Slipper winners were on the rails before the turn.
All 9 wet track Slippers were won by horses who stayed on the fence.
This is a remarkable insight for jockeys, jockey managers, trainers & owners to be aware of when forming their race day plans. For punters the challenge is finding those horses, given a lot comes down to luck in running and the intent, intelligence and/or instructions of the jockeys on board.
You can see a remarkably clear pattern there of recent Slipper winners over the last 20 years. You want to be on the fence. I have made this point for many years, and yet Fireburn got out to 300/1 in running in 2022 on Betfair despite being one of only 5 horses on the fence in the race and a $12 chance.

Last 12 Years:

1. 8 winners had last start 14 days before the Slipper. 1 was 21 days because the races were pushed back 1 week.
2. 7 winners had never run worse than 2nd in their life. 5 had only run out of the quinella once in their career.
3. 11 winners had either 3 or 4 starts prior to the Golden Slipper (one had 5 runs prior to the Golden Slipper).

Barriers 1-3 (6/36), Barriers 4-10 (0/84), Barriers 11-16 (6/70)
Days since last start 7 (2/29), 14 (8/69), 21 (2/48), Other (0/44)
Gear Changes (0/49)
Career Starts 1-2 (0/27), 3-4 (11/133), 5+ (1/30)
Career Wins 0-1 (1/76), 2 (4/76), 3 (6/27), 4+ (1/11)
1st up (0/8), 2nd up (2/28), 3rd up (6/71), 4th up (4/57), 5th up+ (0/26)
Last Start 1200m (12/174), Last Start Under 1200m (0/16)
2nd last start 1100m (9/90), 1200m (3/72), Other (0/26)
Colts (6/93), Fillies (6/93), Geldings (0/4)
Same Jockey As Last Start Y (9/95), N (3/93)
Trainer Waterhouse/Bott (4), Portelli (2), Hawkes (2)
Won at Rosehill Y (8/65), N (4/125)
Won at 1200 Y (9/94), N (3/96)
Last Start Finishing Position 1 (8/83), 2 (3/83), 3+ (1/69)
2nd Last Start Finishing Position 1 (9/89), 2 (2/45), 3+ (1/54)
Last start class G1 (0/33), G2/3 (12/144), Other (0/14)
2nd Last Start class G1 (0/14), G2 (7/46), G3/LR/OPN/SC (4/104), Other (0/24)
Last start track Randwick/Rosehill (12/130), Other (0/60)
Trained at Randwick/Rosehill/Warwick Farm (12/127), Other (0/61)

SPEED MAP

Plenty of speed here with Fully Lit, Storm Boy, Lady Of Camelot and Straight Charge all pushing forward.

Shangri La Express, Holmes A Court & Dublin Down to settle forward of midfield.

Coleman & Switzerland settle midfield with good runs from inside gates.

Eneeza, Prost & Espionage settle worse than midfield.

Manaal, Hayasugi, Rue De Royale, Bodyguard & Traffic Warden out the back.

GOLDEN SLIPPER | KEY RUNNERS

1. Storm Boy – Has won 4 from 4 including the Magic Millions by 2.6L in quick time. Was solid leading all the way to win the Skyline last start.

6. Straight Charge – Won Kensington 845m 18 Sep trial by a length +5.3. Quickest last 600m +3.5 under riding. Was clearly the quickest trial of the day. Ran 2nd beaten a nose in the Breeder’s Plate on debut to Espionage. Since won two Randwick 740m trials by 2.7L +6.7 and 1.3L +5.2, then led all the way to win at Randwick by 3.9L on 23 Dec. Won Warwick Farm 816m trial by 2.4L +7.7 last 600m +5.1 the 2nd quickest of 124 triallers on the day. Beat Espionage in the Silver Slipper then 2nd to Switzerland in the Todman Stakes. Rates highly.

7. Switzerland – Very professional colt who has won 3 from 3. Was strong winning the Todman Stakes last start and maps well.

8. Bodyguard – Ran 2nd beaten a nose in Randwick 18 September trial to Espionage who won the Breeders Plate. Won the Maribyrnong Stakes comfortably on debut. Was strong in Canterbury 900m Jan 9 trial when 2nd to Fearless under no pressure with strong late sectionals +2.7 last 400m then again when 2nd in Randwick 1045m trial beaten a neck under no pressure. Won the Blue Diamond Prelude in good style. Then had a setback, missed the Blue Diamond Stakes, and ran home well for 4th in the Todman Stakes. Can surprise.

14. Lady Of Camelot – Won Kensington 850m 18 Sep trial by 4L +1.5 (2nd quickest), last 600m +1.3 (6th quickest). Ran a close 4th on debut in the Gimcrack. Won Canterbury 900m trial by 8.4L +9.3 quickest of 19 trials on the day +10.6 last 600m quickest of 113 triallers on the day. Won Randwick 741m 22 Jan trial by 2.8L +3.6 3rd quickest of 20 trials on the day. Won the Widden Stakes by 2.8L in good time first up. Then 2nd beaten a head in the Blue Diamond. Sat off the pace and finished well to win Hawkesbury 800m 11 Mar trial by 3L +3.6. Speedy filly.

17. Espionage – Won Kensington 845m 18 Sep trial by a nose -4 last 600m +1.4 (5th quickest). Won the Breeder’s Plate impressively on debut at double figure odds. Led all the way to win Rosehill 900m 5 February trial by 0.8L +3.5 last 600m +2.7 under no pressure, quickest of 8 900m trials on the day. Ran 2nd to Straight Charge in the Silver Slipper, then no luck when 5th in the Todman Stakes. Can win at odds.

DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS

1. 7 – Switzerland
2. 6 – Straight Charge
3. 14 – Lady of Camelot
4. 17 – Espionage
5. 8 – Bodyguard

GOLDEN SLIPPER | SUMMARY

Must bet around Storm Boy at the price, who has chinks in his armour if he steps away slowly from the inside gate. Wet track may suit others more also.

Straight Charge profiles very nicely and the wet track will suit.

Switzerland comes into this with stronger form than Shinzo who won for the same trainer/jockey/owner combo last year.

Lady Of Camelot is very speed with strong figures. Runners coming straight off a Blue Diamond run however do have a poor record in this race.

Espionage & Bodyguard are two highly talented colts and they are capable of winning at odds.