EXPERT RACING TIPS: FLEMINGTON
Best Bets
Jackson Oldham
Betting Strategy
LAY: 7. What You Need (WIN) for 5 unit(s) (Rated at: $11)
I have What You Need double figures in my market so I must be accordingly. He returns off 371-days and tie back surgery. His jumpouts were underwhelming versus Katsu, who bolted away from him. Ben Melham has ridden him in all three career starts along with his latest jumpout and now he doesn’t get down to 54.5kg to ride. Alarm bells galore.
Jackson Oldham
Betting Strategy
BACK: 5. Glentaneous (WIN) for 3 unit(s) (Rated at: $2.9)
A head scratcher for me, as I’m no where near parts of the market here. I can’t get the Mankayan/Gear Up race anywhere near the strength of the Pakenham Cup, where Ashrun comes from and will start single figures in the Tancred. Glentaneous had some traffic issues in that Pakenham Cup between the 600m-400m but once clear, closed off in the fastest sectionals of the race. He’ll have to round them up from the tail but 4.6 is more than a fair price to get involved.
FLEMINGTON PREVIEW | SATURDAY THE 30TH MARCH
RAIL: True | TRACK: Good 4
Perfect conditions for racing, the rail in the true lends itself to be able to swoop more than other rail positions.
RACE 1 | SELECTIONS
4. Rich Fortune
3. Megamea
2. Lempicka
9. Lady Di Di
Betting Strategy
NO BET.
You can excuse away plenty of Rich Fortune’s recent defeats but at some point she has to put her hand up and win again, with D.Lane on board, she gets the perfect opportunity to do so. Lempicka is flying and I’d back her every day of the week at Caulfield, she has failed in all three runs, albeit some in harder grade than this down the straight.
RACE 2 | SELECTIONS
3. Midtown Boss
12. Little Miss Kubi
6. Talbragar
19. Redoute’s Night
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3. Midtown Boss (WIN) for 3 unit(s) (Rated at: $2.4)
Midtown Boss is a box ticking horse for this race and $3 appears too big. He beat all bar Johnny Rocker at The Valley last start and posted a number in doing so that made it clear that he isn’t showing any signs of regression.
He returns to the scene of his best career run to date, 1100m at Flemington where he smashed up on Mornington Glory on New Year’s Day. He is drawn perfectly, keeps M.Zahra and should be winning this only slightly less often than losing this race.
RACE 3 | SELECTIONS
1. Forgot You
5. Frankie Pinot
4. Brayden Star
7. Arran Bay
Betting Strategy
NO BET.
Forgot You should have plenty of residual fitness off only 112-days and I imagine the stable will want him forward for a good showing after a failed trip across the Nullarbor. The recent Cranbourne jumpout was sensational.
RACE 4 | SELECTIONS
4. Ameena
3. Tobeornottobe
8. Yes Lulu
2. Flattered
Betting Strategy
NO BET.
Ameena has won with a decent amount of authority at both her career starts and has produced very solid ratings to boot on both occasions too. She can go right on with here but I’d need 2.7-2.8 to have enough edge to bet.
RACE 5 | SELECTIONS
6. Katsu
9. Sans Doute
4. Najem Suhail
2. Recommendation
Betting Strategy
LAY: 7. What You Need (WIN) for 5 unit(s) (Rated at: $11)
I have What You Need double figures in my market so I must be accordingly. He returns off 371-days and tie back surgery. His jumpouts were underwhelming versus Katsu, who bolted away from him. Ben Melham has ridden him in all three career starts along with his latest jumpout and now he doesn’t get down to 54.5kg to ride. Alarm bells galore.
RACE 6 | SELECTIONS
12. Sea What I See
1. Lauding
6. Sir Atlas
7. Aristonous
Betting Strategy
NO BET.
I have bet right up on Sea What I See at his past two starts but as much of an opinion as I do have on him, I can’t find tremendous value at the early quote of 2.20 versus talented horses such as Lauding and Sir Atlas. Having said that, he did run a very strong figure at The Heath last start and him winning this and winning well, wouldn’t surprise in the slighest.
RACE 7 | SELECTIONS
13. Estriella
3. Stretan Angel
6. Hedged
2. I Am Unstoppable
Betting Strategy
BACK: 13.Estriella (WIN) for 2 unit(s) (Rated at: $2.6)
Backing Estriella, who has gone to a new level this preparation, winning very impressively first-up Caulfield, albeit in the right part of the track then she did it down the straight and was exposed up the front a long way out. I still 1200m back to 1100m a positive and she’s drawn to be in the right spot.
RACE 8 | SELECTIONS
8. Atishu
1. Mr Brightside
2. Cascadian
7. Pride Of Jenni
Betting Strategy
LAY: 7. Pride Of Jenni (WIN) for 3 unit(s) (Rated at: $4.8)
Looking forward to this cracking contest. Pride Of Jenni has been making me along with others foolish for doubting her but at the price she is an auto lay for me Flemington rail true 2000m. I don’t think her first and only run at 2000m holds much relevance here but what does is, her two wins here at Flemington over Cup week she was heavily advantaged but the wind being up setting the speed.
In the Empire Rose last year, Atishu showed she could run on strongly, off the brutal early tempo and that gives me a lot of confidence to make her top pick in this terrific race. No knocks Mr Brightside, I think the inside draw is a big advantage for him, I’ve priced up 2.9 favourite.
RACE 9 | SELECTIONS
5. Glentaneous
13. Mark Twain
3. Dunkel
6. Daqiansweet Junior
Betting Strategy
BACK: 5. Glentaneous (WIN) for 3 unit(s) (Rated at: $2.9)
A head scratcher for me, as I’m no where near parts of the market here. I can’t get the Mankayan/Gear Up race anywhere near the strength of the Pakenham Cup, where Ashrun comes from and will start single figures in the Tancred. Glentaneous had some traffic issues in that Pakenham Cup between the 600m-400m but once clear, closed off in the fastest sectionals of the race. He’ll have to round them up from the tail but 4.6 is more than a fair price to get involved.
RACE 10 | SELECTIONS
2. Rhienberg
3. Dashing
1. Tijuana
9. Golden Path
Betting Strategy
NO BET.
Rheinberg was good first-up in the inferior ground, the map is good and he is always a horse I have had plenty of time for. Golden Path is a talent and looks to have returned well but will be spotting talented horses a start from the back.
I’m doing this preview assuming Gringotts is going to Sydney so I won’t mention him. Two horses at prices that can run races, Dashing who ties in with Rheinberg last preparation and Tijauana, who ran a sneaky good race first-up and gets B.Melham.
Shane Oxlade on Sghirippa in the Newmarket
FLEMINGTON RACECOURSE
SUMMARY
As the home of ‘the race that stops a nation’, the Melbourne Cup, Flemington is Australia’s most famous racecourse. The $8 million two-mile handicap, which is held on the first Tuesday in November each year and attracts leading staying horses from around the world, is one of 14 Group 1 races held at Flemington and is the pinnacle of the four-day Melbourne Cup Carnival. For Flemington tips across the world-famous Melbourne Cup Carnival and every meeting throughout the year, the Betfair Hub has you covered.
FAST FACTS
- The biggest ever attendance at Flemington came on Victoria Derby Day in 2006, when 129,069 spectators witnessed Efficient claim the Derby.
KEY EVENTS
While the Melbourne Cup, which was first run in 1861, is Australia’s most famous race, Victoria Derby Day – held the Saturday before the Cup – traditionally attracts the biggest crowd of the carnival. As well as the Derby, a 2500m contest for three-year-olds, the raceday features three more Group 1 contests in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, Cantala Stakes and Empire Rose Stakes. Two days after the Melbourne Cup, the Group 1 VRC Oaks headlines Ladies’ Day with Stakes Day, featuring the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes, bringing the curtain down on the Melbourne Cup Carnival. Betfair brings you Flemington best bets, with our team of experts giving punters the inside track on every meeting.
TRACK PROFILE
Known for its wide expanses and ability to cope in any weather conditions, Flemington is renowned by punters as one of Australia’s fairest tracks. The racecourse is pear-shaped, with a six-furlong (1200m) straight known as the ‘straight six’. The track has a circumference of 2312m and a home straight of 450m. Whether it’s sprint or staying races, our resident team of experts do the form to deliver their Flemington tips on the Betfair Hub.
HISTORY
The Flemington Racecourse site comprises 1.27 square kilometres of crown land. The course was originally leased to the Victoria Turf Club in 1848, which merged with the Victoria Jockey Club in 1864 to form the Victoria Racing Club. The first running of the Melbourne Cup was held in 1861 and 10 years later the Victoria Racing Club Act was passed, which gave the VRC legal control of Flemington Racecourse.
