Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.

UEFA Champions League Expert Tips 2019/20

Betfair Soccer Experts TPSS are back to give their Champions League Tips for the 2019/20 tournament. They will preview major games in each stage of the tournament and give their expert tips along the way.

HUB 101: Where Do I Start?

Betfair’s Hub exists to make you smarter. Really. Betfair isn’t a corporate bookmaker that bans you for winning on promos or closes your account because you’re too smart at horse racing.

We reward you by inviting you to our events, introducing you to other smart punters and delivering you data sources that could help your punting P+L.

It’s not a short journey to becoming a full time professional punter, but whatever stage you’re at, The Hub can help you improve.

How To Use The Punters Toolbox From Neds

Neds have been using the usual corporate bookmaker playbook since they opened in 2017. Promotional marketing. They’re offering large sign up offers and they’ve increased the opportunities by creating the Neds Punters Toolbox.

As one of the leading matched betting services in Australia (Bonus Money), we’re going to show you how to take advantage of these offers. In fact, we’re going to show you the step by step strategy we recommend for all four of Neds’ tools.

When you’re ready to take advantage of the Neds Toolbox, you’ll need an account at a low margin betting exchange.

The Neds Punter’s Toolbox consists of four products. They are:

  • Price Boost
  • Back Up
  • Jump Off
  • Fluc Up

We’ve been using these promotions for months and even have a free Facebook group that discusses the offers here.

1. Neds Price Boost

The first tool in the Toolbox is the Neds Price Boost. This familiar promotion is used at all of Neds’ competitors. In fact, the Betfair Promo Arber has addressed the Ladbrokes Odds Boost and Sportsbet PowerPlay opportunities before.

At Neds, you can boost a fixed odds for a max bet of $1000.

This can be worth around $80 of expected profit with each boost if you select the right horse.

Your Six Step Process To Price Boosts

Step 1 – Find a race where you can use your Price Boosts.

Step 2 – Find a horse whose odds closely matches with the lay odds at Betfair. The simplest way to do this can be using Matcha which quickly identifies horses that have odds close between the bookmaker and Betfair.

Step 3 – Apply Bet Boost. Ensure the Price Boost odds are higher than the Betfair lay odds.

Step 4 – Back the horse with Neds.

Step 5 – Lay the same horse on Betfair. To calculate how much to lay to achieve a profit use a matched betting calculator.

Step 6 – If done correctly, regardless of where your horse finishes, you’ll have made money thanks to creating an arbitrage opportunity.

An Example

On Sunday 14th of October 2018 Pearl Girl could be backed at $1.60 and layed on Betfair at $1.64.

Using the Price Boost at Neds you could get odds of $1.85.

Using a matched betting calculator, you can see that by laying $1185.90 there is a profit of $91.03 no matter whether Pearl Girl wins or not. This calculation takes into account the 8% commission paid on WA races.

You can view the full matched bet calculation here.

how to best take advantage of Price Boost

  • Maximum bet size is $1000 and to take full advantage you may want to back that amount.
  • Often you will get the best boost for making money on favourites. Anything under $2.50 at Neds.
  • To make the most profit you need to find odds as close as possible between Neds and Betfair. Matcha can help with that.
  • To gain an equal profit use a matched betting calculator.
  • A quick method of how much to lay is to just lay your stake amount.

2. Neds Back Up

If your Back Up finishes 1st and your bet places 2nd, Neds refund your stake up to $500.

This can be worth around $100 of expected profit with each boost if you select the right horse and races but these opportunities only appear a couple of times per day.

Your Five Step Process To Low Risk Profit

Step 1 – Find a horse, greyhound or harness race with two clear favourites. Both the favourite and second favourite want to have odds of under $3.00 on Betfair.

Step 2 – Aim to find a race where the clear second favourites odds at Neds closely matches the lay odds at Betfair using Matcha.

Step 3 – Back your selection at Neds having selected your Back Up selection.

Step 4 – Lay your horse on Betfair (just the horse you backed at Neds. You do NOT lay the Back Up horse).

Step 5 – If your selection comes second, you can profit.

An Example

Finding a suitable race for this offer can be tricky. There really needs to be two close favourites.

In this example we are able to find a horse to back at $5.50 and lay at $6.00.

We first want to check the numbers in the calculator to make sure this is a profitable bet so we enter the back and lay odds and the lay odds of the favourite in to the calculator.

We then place the bet at Neds.

And the lay bet at Betfair.

Now if Red Devil comes first and Devillain comes 2nd we make a profit of $439.08 thanks to the refund offered by Neds.

You can see the full calculation here.

This bet has an Expected Value (the average amount you would expect to make if you repeatedly made this bet) of $105 and is worth your attention.

how to best take advantage of Back Up

  • This offer can quickly turn in to negative value if not played on the right selections.
  • When you have found a suitable race then enter the back and lay odds as well as the lay odds into the Neds Back Up calculator This is to ensure you are getting value
  • The number of Back Ups you receive is account dependent.
  • The lower the odds of both the horse you back and the Back Up horse the greater the Expected Value (EV). The EV you should be aiming for is around $75 and up.
  • This offer suits a race with two clear favourites.
  • The highest expected value can be achieved by betting on the second favourite with the favourite as the Back Up.
  • To achieve greater EV, you want the back and lay odds of the horse you are backing to be as close as possible. Use Matcha to help identify these horses.
  • The back odds of the Back Up horse don’t matter but the lay odds of this horse do. The lower the odds are the greater EV.
  • The fewer horses in the race the better only because there is likely to be lower priced horses.
  • Greyhound and Harness races can provide great opportunities but the small liquidity can make it tough to get matched.

3. Neds Jump Off

Jump Off allows you to cancel your bet with Neds within a designated time frame after the race has commenced. The maximum refund is $500.

There are traders on the Betfair exchange who make money by correctly predicting more often than not the price movements of horses on Betfair. This highly skilled technique can take some time to acquire. The Jump Off from Neds gives you a relatively low risk way to practice this.

Your Seven Step Process

Step 1 – Find a race where you can use your Jump Off. Neds displays this for you.

Step 2 – Find a horse whose odds closely matches with the lay odds at Betfair. The simplest way to do this can be using Matcha which quickly identifies horses that have odds close between the bookmaker and Betfair.

Step 3 – Back the horse with the Neds Price Boost.

Step 4 – Lay the same horse on Betfair at a lower price.

Step 5 – If your lay price is matched then you have a risk free shot at profit if your horse wins.

Step 6 – If your lay bet does not get matched then cancel your lay bet at Betfair

Step 7 – Use the Jump Off before the timer runs out at Neds.

An Example

Both Big Duke and Yucatan had odds closely matching the lay odds on Betfair.

Odds correct on at 10am 13/10/18.

Two lay bets were placed on Betfair to try and get matched:
1. Big Duke $500 at odds of $10.00.
2. Yucatan $500 at odds of $6.00.

During the race the jump off timer counts down and if your bets aren’t matched you can Jump Off.

Both bets got fully matched on Betfair.

Yucatan went on to win spectacularly and this Bonus Money member profited $500.

how to best take advantage of Jump Off

  • This method is most easily done on races with lots of liquidity in Betfair so Saturday afternoons are best.
  • The bigger the discrepancy between your back and lay odds the less likely you are to get matched.
  • The lower the odds of your horse the less likely the price moves about as much but also the greater the chance of your horse winning.
  • The earlier you get on a suitable match the longer time you have for odds to move around and get your lay matched.
  • Longer races have longer jump off periods so more opportunity to get your bet matched.
  • When the race commences, a countdown timer will appear, you must cancel your bet within the designated time frame. Once the timer runs out you will no longer have the option to jump off.
  • There are two stages to Jump Off You first select it and then have to confirm. If you are planning on jumping off then you can click it once, so that at the right time you only need to click confirm.

4. Neds Fluc Up

You can lock in a price rise with Fluc Up. The maximum stake is $500.

There is only a small amount of value in the Fluc Up and it is only really useful if you are happening to be betting at Neds regardless of playing an offer.

The Fluc Up is the least useful of the tools as there is only a five minute window between placing your bet and clicking Fluc Up.  The likelihood of the odds moving greatly in that time are usually small.


When a bookmaker brings out new features there can be a chance for a smart bettor using matched betting techniques to profit from them. Three of the four tools offered by Neds can provide healthy profits if played in the right way.

Consistently using these tools to profit may see you receive a promotional ban from Neds. If you are worried about receiving a ban, then check out this guide on the best ways to prevent this happening.

The Punters Toolbox from Neds is one of many match betting opportunities in Australia. For more opportunities, check out the Match Betting Mini-Hub.

Take advantage of the Neds Toolbox by match betting their promotions on Betfair.

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