The Survivor

In 1988, at the age of 20, Stewart Davidson obtained a bookies licence and commenced operating in the cauldron that was the Sydney betting ring. It goes without saying that he is still gambling some 30 years later. It ran in the family, Stewart’s father – Alan – was (and still is) a Sydney bookie and this apple never fell far from the tree.

2018 Brownlow Medal Predictor

Betfair presents the 2018 Brownlow Predictor. Our Analysts have assigned votes to every single game and will have the Brownlow leaderboard up to date by Tuesday lunchtime every week.

Given that no ruckmen, power forward or key defender has won the award for 25 years, Betfair’s Brownlow predictor votes are skewed towards high possession midfielders. You can read more about the voting allocations underneath the leaderboard as well as stay on top of the Brownlow odds by checking the Betfair Exchange.

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It’s not a short journey to becoming a full time professional punter, but whatever stage you’re at, The Hub can help you improve.

Harness Racing Ratings

Identify value bets with The Analysts’ Harness Racing Ratings.

Your Golf Prediction Model

Betfair’s Golf Prediction Model shares golf tips for weekly PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You can look at all of the rated prices below, in comparison with the odds on the Betfair Exchange. From there you’ll identify the best value betting opportunities. Both to lay and to back.

The Euro heads to Gottenburg, Sweden with the big names taking a week off after the two big events over the last fortnight. With neither of the top Swedes picking up the sticks the market’s gone for the next best thing – a Dane.

The model agrees that Olesen is a rightful favourite but with the Euro being the crapshoot it is, there’s rarely any value at the top of the board and this week is no exception. With not a lot known about this course, we’ll be leaning heavily on modelled prices.

Over the odds

Bradley Dredge

The Welsh veteran has arrested a form slump that saw him drop out of the model’s top players. He posted an excellent 36-hole performance at the European Open before fading. With very few big names to dominate the board, another two good rounds should bank us a solid profit.

Justin Walters

After his ripping finish to the BMW, the South African has gone off the boil somewhat but the model is showing a longer term trend in improvement so we’ll stick with the big fella with the potential to go low.

Jason Scrivener

The model has given his rating an absolute beating over the last few months and while we’d usually write him off due to trending in the wrong direction, the overlay on offer here is just too big to ignore. The Aussie has some excellent golf in him and given he’s still young so we’re willing to write off his current slump as temporary.

The PGA regular season draws to a close this week with a weakened field lining up at Greensboro to tackle a very traditional course where length off the tee isn’t of huge benefit. With some of the easiest holes on Tour scores should be low this week so we won’t be targeting the grinders!

The model sees last year’s winner Stenson and Hideki as fairly priced while Simpson is well unders. Let’s see if we can dig up a few shorter hitters who’ve been flying under the radar on a Tour that usually favours length.

Over the odds

Steve Stricker

Come on, if you’ve been following this column even in passing you must have known Strick was going to pop up. The market just has no love for the old fella despite his continued solid form.  His poor off the tee performance won’t hold him back here so we’re getting on board once again.

Chris Kirk

We’ve been waiting for a good overlay to jump on the round one wonder – Kirk leads the Tour for increase in win expectancy after the first round. Another who’s performance is hurt by his poor driving distance, he should be well suited this week. If he blasts a low round first up, definitely be looking to lay off some if not all of your exposure, as he’s not known for keeping it up!

John Huh

Rounding out our list of short hitters is John Huh. The man with a name straight out of an Abbott and Costello sketch has an awful off the tee game and to be honest he’s not particularly great anywhere else. He’s had a 3rd place earlier in the year and placed 7th last month so he’s got the game to get to the top of the board. A big overlay combined with a course that removes his biggest weakness from the equation should certainly tips the odds in our favour.





Previous Tournaments

The 100th edition of the PGA Championship takes place at Bellerive Country Club this week. A much shorter, waterlogged version of the course was last seen on Tour back in 2008. This year will be the final time the PGA Championship rounds out the year’s Majors as it moves to May in 2019. With greens averaging roughly the size of two IMAX screens, the course takes accurate approach shots or a long-range layups with the flat stick. GIR is crucial as there won’t be there won’t be many one-putts this week.

With course history completely irrelevant here the market has latched onto the past tournament winner angle, one that really bakes the noodle considering this tournament moves every year. Regardless, the market’s overvaluation of the likes of Rory and Day has presented great value further down the board.


Over the odds

Francesco Molinari

The hottest man in golf cooled off last week and who could blame him after the run he’s had. Ranks number three on Tour for strokes gained tee to green, which he’ll need to lean on with the spacious greens not offering easy putting opportunities. Only a modest overlay on offer but who wouldn’t want to ride Frankie’s hot streak?

Ryan Moore

Following the same theme, Moore is top 20 in both of the above stats. His 12th place at the Open Championships a few weeks back shows he has what it takes for these big tournaments and the model is showing a very nice overlay.

Emiliano Grillo

The model’s opinion of the young Argentine continues to diverge from the market’s and although his form lately has been weak, were going to load up on him again at a huge price. Grillo is the top ranked sniper, holing 25 foot or greater putts at a rate higher than anyone else on Tour. This should help him pinch enough shots to get him up the leaderboard this week.

Andrew Putman

Coming in on the back of a top 10 in the Canadian Open and a win last week, albeit against a severely depleted field, we’re a bit shocked at the price on offer. Despite his name he’s pretty average with the flat stick but with an overlay this big we simply have to jump on.

Stewart Cink

Rounding out the picks this week is another long shot, the veteran Cink. His masterful approach game sees him rank 20th in proximity to the pin which should allow him to make up for his lack of length of the tee by avoiding three and hopefully two-putting the monster greens.

The third instalment of the World Golf Championships takes place this week, with an abbreviated field tackling Firestone CC. Dusty walked it in last week but he’ll be up against a much more talented field and on a course that doesn’t lend itself to par-5 scoring he isn’t the best option. We’ll be targeting accurate drivers and bogey avoiders on a course that isn’t easy to score on.

Over the odds

Henrik Stenson

The big Swede is a great fit for the course as one of the most accurate drivers on Tour. He’s been in great form this season and with the big names being hugely overrated by the market this week we can snag a very tasty price.

Paul Casey

The Englishman bombed out in the final round over in Germany last week but was right amongst it through 56 holes. A massive overlay on the modelled price means we will ignore any possible jetlag.

Pat Perez

We back the big unit most weeks as the market keeps coming to the party with huge prices. This week is no exception and we think our man is good for another couple of low rounds to trade down below $100 for a tidy profit.

Porsche European Open 2018

A few of the top PGA players have stuck around this week for a spin around the appropriately named Green Eagle course in Germany. This course is long, very long, playing up to 7,830 yards with 5 par 5s for the big hitters to attack. The market is heavily favouring the Americans and past solid performers at the course so we’ll need to plumb a little deeper to find some value.

Over The Odds

Bradley Dredge

The Welsh veteran isn’t exactly suited to the course, but his model overlay is just too good to refuse in a field that other than the top few is really quite weak.

Nick Cullen

The Aussie isn’t the biggest hitter going around but he does have solid par-5 scoring potential, likely due to his excellent accuracy. His form has been trending very nicely over the past year and the market doesn’t seem aware of his potential. Great price at around $290.

Jeff Winther

Another unheralded player with form sneakily trending in the right direction, the Dane ranks very highly on par-5 scoring, helped by his 18th rank on Tour for eagles per round. A good price and seemingly good course fit looks like a good play.

RBC Canadian Open

The Open last week had everything, Tiger at outright leader in the final round, another Speith meltdown and the first Italian to win a major! Five of our hopes finished inside the top 20, with Perez right up the top at the halfway point so some excellent trading opportunities were on offer.

This week sees the Tour head north of the border to the very first course Jack Nicklaus designed. With decent sized fairways and generous rough, distance off the tee is a big benefit here which the market seems to have realised as the Dustman heads the board even after his stinker last week. With not much value to be had, DJ wouldn’t be the worst pick but we’ll try to do a little better.

Over The Odds

Steve Stricker

We’re definitely not big fans from a course fit perspective, but in a dry week the value on offer for Strick is just too much to resist. Hopefully his solid GIR can make up for his lack of length.

Chez Reavie

Reavie keeps popping up as great value and his opening round at the Open last week showed us what he is capable of – both from a golfing and trading perspective (he traded near $1000 prematch!). Yes, he’s missed 5 of the last 6 cuts but if you always followed recent form you’d rarely find any value!

Shane Lowry

The big Irish unit doesn’t have any particularly exciting aspects of his game but sometimes all you need is a solid price compared to the model and we’ve got that this week.

 

Had our first real wipe out last week, with a dominant Michael Kim ruining any hope of trading out in the PGA and our Euro hopes way off the pace. So it’s great timing for a Major this week, where mug money flows strong and value abounds!

We’re looking at another tough course this week as Carnoustie, sometimes referred to as Car-Nasty, hosts the 147th instalment of golf’s oldest Major. We’ll be hunting for blokes who can handle a sand wedge as the course is dead set crawling with bunkers – more than 100 of them line the fairways and protect greens. Scotland has enjoyed a ripping summer with very little rain so the course is playing very fast, meaning accurate, rather than long drives will be key.

We’ll be playing a bit of a weather angle this week, targeting overpriced stick men who tee off early on Thursday when conditions will be the most favourable of the entire week.

Over The Odds

Jason Day

Before we get in to the longer chances, Jason Day has actually popped up as solid value at his current $42. Not helped by his tee time, he does possess elite around the green skills and has a history of excellent performances in the big tournaments.

Patrick Cantlay

We’re back on the Californian this week as the market seems to have forgotten the fact the man can really play. He is a bit of a fair weather sailor but a great tee time and huge overlay on his modelled price is too hard to ignore.

Emiliano Grillo

He let us down in the tricky conditions of the US Open but we’re sticking with him here. Grillo tees off near the front of the pack on Thursday when winds will be very mild. A very accurate driver, solid sand player and elite putter the Argentine has been threatening to break out for a while and we feel this could be his week.

Webb Simpson

Currently sitting third on tour for scrambling and another with an early tee time, we like Simpson to recapture his form from a few weeks back when he blitzed the field at the Players’ Championship, with TPC Sawgrass a reasonably similar course in terms of hazards.

Ryan Moore

While Moore tees off at perhaps the worst possible time, which will see him cop the worst of the wind on both days – there’s just too much to like about him. He’s top three in driving accuracy, top ten in scrambling, performs better on tough courses, hits the ball incredibly low – these are all traits that will serve him well this week.

Pat Perez

The mulleted one is a regular in this column as he always seems to be paying frankly ridiculous amounts. His form has been erratic but he’s had 5 top five finishes, including a victory this year so he knows where the hole is. An early tee time on Thursday doesn’t hurt either!

With the big names taking time to prepare for the British Open next week, a very weak field lines up for a likely shoot out at Deere Run. With soft greens and not a lot of wind, expect a lot of birdies to be made at the very easy par-71. Accurate driving and wedge play is the order of the day here, with the shorter hitters not at any disadvantage. Our man Frankie Molinari is a fairly priced favourite this week so we’ll be looking to some of the lesser lights for value.

Over the odds

Steve Stricker

While we don’t subscribe to course history, it’s hard not to get excited at Stricker’s incredible past performances here – he notched up three straight victories earlier in the decade. Usually these sort of stats mean there’s no value to be had, but the model has Stricker second favourite at 16s. This is a great opportunity to sneak a victory in the twilight of his career.

Chez Reavie

Looks like a case of the market overreacting to his recent missed cuts here as Reavie has had a very solid season. Possessing an excellent approach game and elite driving accuracy, the course should suit him and the model is rating him a much better chance than the current market price.

Vaughn Taylor

We were on the veteran last week and we’re coming back for more. Another very accurate driver, which should set him up to throw some darts at the soft greens. Some money going through at 250s which is a hefty overlay to his model price.

Over the odds

Jorge Campillo

On a Tour where the bigger names are perpetually overvalued, Campillo’s price has a scratching our heads. He posted an incredible final round last week which nearly saw him join Knox and Fox in the Irish Open playoff. Conditions this week should be very similar so we’re loving the Spaniard!

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

The Frenchman with the Spanish name has been steadily improving his game and although he’s been missing a few cuts lately – it’s last week’s that likely has the market spooked – he’s been mixing in some very solid performances. Huge overlay on offer for a bloke playing the best golf of his long career.

Jason Scrivener, Matthias Schwab, Justin Walters

On a Tour as unpredictable as the Euro, it’s worth having a chop at a few real long shots. These guys are all paying $1000 (!) and are rated much better chances by the model. While they certainly won’t be winning, they might make it up near the top of the leaderboard at some stage and that’s all we need to profit.

The column nailed its first winner last week as Frankie Molinari blitzed the field. We’ll look to keep up that solid form as the Tour moves to Old White TPC in the mountains of West Virginia for the newly renamed A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. The high altitude course offers a lot more leniency than the punishing setups of the last few weeks, with wide fairways and forgiving rough. A fair bit of rain in the forecast this week so keep that in mind when looking for trading opportunities. If rain softens up the course we could be looking at some very low scores.

A course that doesn’t punish bad shots brings some of the longies into the mix and with the top of the board looking fairly priced this week, that’s where we’ll be looking.

Over the odds

Ryan Moore

Before we get to the long shots, we start with Ryan Moore. A top 30 player in all strokes gained categories except putting, Moore has a very solid all round game. We feel the market has read too much into his missed cut last week and in a very weak field by PGA standards, Moore is in with a great chance with the model rating him fourth favourite.

 BACK – Ryan Moore

Jason Kokrak

Krak has been having a tough year, culminating in three straight missed cuts. When you look a little deeper, you’ll see his first rounds aren’t the issue – it’s the three after where he stinks it up! The beauty of trading on Betfair is you only need one good round to create a solid profit, so we’ll have a crack (sorry) at the one-round wonder.

 BACK – Jason Kokrak

Vaughn Taylor

Taylor has been plodding around the Tour since the early 2000s and there’s not much to say about him other than there is a solid overlay on offer against his modelled price of $130. Another who likes to post a quality first round then fade out he’ll hopefully present a nice little trading opportunity.

 BACK – Vaughn Taylor

The big names of Europe line up this week for a true links test on a seaside course on the Northwest tip of Ireland. What could’ve been a brutal test is looking a little easier, with winds forecast to be relatively calm. That said, keep an eye out for any changes that could present trading opportunities.  Mcilroy and Rahm dominate the board this week and we don’t see any value up top, but we’ve dug up some huge value long shots a big deeper in the pack.

Over the odds

Thomas Detry

The Euro model is a little more aggressive in incorporating recent form than the PGA model and is liking what it see with the young Belgian. Hidden in his Belgian Open score were two incredible stroke play rounds where he dominated the field.

 BACK – Thomas Detry

David Lipsky

After a solid 2017 campaign, Lipsky has cooled off somewhat this year. Following our theme of the week, Lipsky has a habit of going low opening rounds then fading out. At his current $300+ price, we think he can shorten significantly if he manages a quality opening 18.

 BACK – David Lipsky

Justin Walters

He doesn’t do too well when the going gets tough, but if the wind stays down the ultra-aggressive South African should have a chance at capturing his scintillating BMW Open form from two weeks ago, where he was just one shot off the pace after 36 holes. Crazy price on offer for a man with his birdie making potential.

 BACK – Justin Walters

 

The Tour heads to Maryland this week, for an invite only event hosted by Tiger’s charity organisation. Looking short on paper, the course actually plays a little longer in practice with some lengthy par 4s. We’ll be looking for accurate drivers to navigate the skinny fairways lined by tricky rough.

Over the odds

Francesco Molinari

One of the leading off the tee players on Tour, we’re loving the Italian this week. His form has been solid this season and in a fairly weak field the model has him rated as second favourite.

 BACK – Francesco Molinari

Ted Potter Jnr.

A fairly unremarkable player, we like one aspect of Potter’s game – his ability to go low. Has posted some ripping rounds this season and if he can manage one early we should trade lower than his current 200s.

 BACK – Ted Potter Jnr

John Huh

Not a lot of value up the top of the board this week so we’re forced to dig up players like Huh. Not much to say about him other than point out there is an absolute monster of an overlay available!

 BACK – John Huh

 

A Ryder Cup preview is on offer this week takes place at the stadium-style Le Golf National just outside of Paris. Justin Thomas makes a rare appearance on the Euro Tour as he susses out the links-style course that will reward solid iron play.

Over the odds

Justin Thomas

The model has the American streets ahead of the field here and while there isn’t a huge overlay on offer, he’s the only one of the top few offering any sort of value and really is a class above the rest of the contenders.

 BACK – Justin Thomas

Richie Ramsay

The Scot should feel at home on the mostly featureless and quite exposed course. Had some good scrambling practice at the US Open recently and although he missed the cut, we think he’s a much better chance than the 250s currently on offer.

 BACK – Richie Ramsay

Matthias Schwab

We were on Schwab last week and he was right amongst it until the incredibly low scoring final round. He’s been quietly posting some very solid results and we’ll keep backing him at these big prices.

 BACK – Matthias Schwab

A rare sight in Europe, the Jack Nicklaus designed course at Gut Larchenhof hosts this week’s BMW Championship. With a minimal amount of trees the wind can have a big impact, so target those heading out early as forecasts show wind increasing from mid-morning on Thursday. Fleetwood backs up from his superb US Open performance and is a deserved favourite here so we’ll need to look further down the board for some value.

Over the odds

Jorge Campillo

Looks like the market is reading a little too much into Jorge’s last two performances as he was absolutely lighting it up prior to those. We’re not big proponents of course form so aren’t too bothered by his history here either. At time of writing, $75 is an amazing price for a bloke who’s had 5 top 5s in the last 4 months.

 BACK – Jorge Campillo

Matthias Schwab

The Austrian has spent most of his career on the Challenge Tour but has stepped up to the big leagues this year and made quite and impression. While the model may be overrating his second-league form somewhat, we think he’s poised for a breakout and love the look of the 130s on offer for him.

 BACK – Matthias Schwab

What a US Open! Absolute carnage spread across the four days. Three of our picks made it up near the top of the leaderboard at some stage during the tournament so there were some great trading opportunities.

This week sees a much more sedate trip to a very short Pete Dye course in Cromwell, Connecticut.  The weather forecast looks favourable so target the iron specialists and expect some low scoring! Looks like punters are still recovering from last week’s craziness as there hasn’t been much of a market formed but we’ll try to dig up some more value picks.

Over the odds

Patrick Cantlay

We went close on the big-eared Californian a few weeks back and while he was off the pace at the US Open, so were some of the world’s best – at least he made the cut! Has a great approach game and if he can get the putter firing we really like his chances.

 BACK – Patrick Cantlay

Pat Perez

Another who struggled but ended up on the right side of the cut line last week, Perez has been mixing mediocre performances with top 5s this year and we like the 130s on offer for him this week.

 BACK – Pat Perez

Robert Garrigus

The longy of the week is tour veteran Garrigus. While you may not be familiar with him, he sits 16th on tour for shots gained on approach shots this season. Unfortunately, he’s been absolutely rubbish with the flat stick which has seen him miss cuts in nearly half the tournaments he’s entered. If he can sort out the putter, his cracking approach game should hopefully see him knock out a low round or two.

 BACK – Robert Garrigus

Shinnecock Hills in upstate New York hosts the season’s second major this week. Since last hosting the event in 2004, the course has grown 444 yards and lost basically all trees, putting it firmly in links territory. With so little cover, weather could be a massive factor here. However given it’s proved near impossible find a consistent forecast this week, we’ve gone mostly on model prices for the tips, with a sprinkling of GIR and scrambling. We’ve dug right into the card and have come up with no less than six big value plays.

Over the odds

Henrik Stenson

Elite driving and top flight scrambling combined with loving the tough courses? Stenson absolutely jumps off the page even before considering the hefty overlay on offer.

BACK – Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

The Englishman’s form has up there with the best of them this season – OK maybe not quite DJ or JT standard… but he’s paying a solid $55 bucks (and has dropped $15 while I’ve been typing this up!)

BACK – Paul Casey

Steve Stricker

A favourite of this column, the Strick probably doesn’t have what it takes to win, but does have what it takes to trade below his current $210 price.

BACK – Steve Stricker

Emiliano Grillo

Another who loves a struggle, the Argentine has been in great form of late, with four top 10s in his last 10 starts. Has a very solid all round game, the only knock is his scrambling which may hurt him given the near 100 bunkers in play.

BACK – Emiliano Grillo

Ian Poulter

The Englishman loves the tough courses and this week is looking like anything below par might get the job done. Recovered nicely since a couple of missed cuts early in the season.

BACK – Ian Poulter

Charles Howell III

The man hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire but his four top 10 finishes this year show he can put four rounds together. Will only take on good one to trade below his lengthy current price.

BACK – Charles Howell III


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