Donald Trump: Is The Smart Money On The President?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Paul Krishnamurty, aka The Political Gambler, has been betting on elections for over a decade. A politics graduate from the University of Hull, he also works as the chief political analyst for Betfair UK.

As you’ll soon see, his pieces are researched and full of opinion.

The Trump Fascination

Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office is generating new markets that would previously have been unthinkable.

I must declare a long-running interest. I’ve been completely absorbed by US politics since spending 2016 travelling the country. I predicted his relationship and position towards Russia would contribute to his defeat in September 2015, and duly lost big.

I watched the ‘fake news’ scam that forms a central part of the Mueller investigation in real-time, and have never doubted the conclusions of the Western intelligence community regarding Russian interference. From the outset of that investigation, I’ve been adamant that collusion and criminality would be exposed by an unstoppable legal process.

The Road To Re-Election

There are numerous paths that could prevent the President from re-election in 2020, or ending his term early. They include impeachment, resignation and the 25th amendment, amongst other scenarios.

As provocative as impeachment sounds, the process is straight forward. Only one article needs to be passed in the House of Representatives. Then, two-thirds of the Senate would have to support it.

However, at the moment, there is no evidence whatsoever that a Republican congress would be prepared to impeach their own president, although the mood could plausibly change if they lose badly in November’s mid-term elections. They are the next key stage of the process.

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Mid-Term Form

Across a range of local and special elections since 2016, Republicans have been blown away by a ‘Blue Wave’, driven by a massive surge in engagement and turnout from opponents. They lost a Senate seat in Alabama, a safe House seat in rural Pennsylvania (Trump central) and needed a recount to hang on to another ultra-safe seat in Ohio.

If that surge is repeated in November’s mid-term elections, Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives. The Democrats are currently hovering around $1.53 for that market.

House Of Representatives Majority:

Despite an incredibly favourable map of Senate races up for re-election, they could lose control of that too. The Republicans are currently around $1.67 to retain their majority.

Senate Majority:

Predictions

Here’s my prediction. The Democrats will win the House comfortably and perhaps deny the GOP their Senate majority too. They will vote for first-stage impeachment, as the demand among supporters will be too strong to resist, and there are many more bombshells to emerge from the Mueller investigation.

The effect on the most active Republicans – elected officials, advisers, donors – will be profound. The post-mortem will rightly blame Trump, about whom all aspects of American political life are now a referendum. They will no longer see him as a winner.

I’m highly skeptical, however, that enough Senators will turn to create the majority required for impeachment. More likely, the ‘NeverTrump’ movement gains ground and a primary challenge for the 2020 Republican Nomination becomes inevitable.

Trump hit a low of $1.27 to repeat as the Republican nominee, however, he’s beyond $1.50 now. I expect that to continue drifting, particularly while Mueller fallout intensifies.

Trump's Family Ties

Already, Team Trump seems reduced to family. Former manager, Paul Manafort, and lawyer/fixer, Michael Cohen, have pleaded guilty and are co-operating. Allen Weisselberg, longstanding Chief Financial Officer of the Trump Organisation, has been subpoenaed to appear before the Grand Jury.  David Pecker, chief of the National Enquirer – the tabloid publication that has been spiking negative stories on his behalf for decades, and who were responsible for a slew of fake anti-Clinton stories in 2016 – has an immunity deal.

There is a high chance that Donald Trump Jnr and/or Jared Kushner will be charged. In addition, Trump is facing an anti-corruption lawsuit, on grounds that his establishments profit directly from gifts and spending by foreign governments. Plus Cohen has directly implicated his former boss in the cases relating to Stormy Daniels and Karen MacDougall.

Piece by piece, 2019 should see the true Trump story laid out for public consumption. It involves decades of ties to the mob, money laundering for Russian oligarchs, sex scandals galore. The looming trial of alleged spy Maria Butina will reveal the extent of Russian interference, potentially implicating several leading Republicans.

Conclusion

Right now, Trump is adamant he’ll run and win in 2020. Eventually, even if withstanding all the legal threats, he must come to realise the next election will be nothing like 2016. His brand will no longer be the self-financed outsider who wants to Make America Great Again. It will become sleaze and corruption. Performing in TV debates, running an election campaign, will be impossible against that backdrop. Just imagine the relentless ‘Lock Him Up’ chants.

Nobody is polling 2020 yet. When last polled head-to-head with a Democrat, Trump nearly always trailed even the irrevocably damaged Hillary Clinton. Earlier in that cycle, he was regularly beaten out of sight by Bernie Sanders or, even more so, Joe Biden. Democrat front-runners will soon declare and, in my view, be again shown double-digits ahead of Trump for 2020.

At some point next year, assuming Mueller hasn’t brought the administration down already, Trump will withdraw from the 2020 race. His final year in office will be spent doing a victory lap of his base, blaming the ‘Deep State’ for thwarting his MAGA plan.

Even though I have been spectacularly wrong about Trump before, I’m laying him with confidence. There are too many hurdles, at his current odds, to be on his side for the 2020 election. Despite the long lead up time, I can trade in and out of my position well before before the votes are counted.