NRL Season 2018: Round 18 Analysis

NRL Season 2018: Round 17 Analysis

Adelaide vs West Coast

Saturday 30th June, 4:35pm AEST Adelaide Oval


The Crows will regain a lot of firepower for this match with the return of Sloane, Laird and Brown. Their return couldn’t have come at a better time with their last win coming in Round 9 against the dogs with their performances since then looking sluggish and lazy. Although down on form, the Crows still have plenty of talent and will be facing an Eagles’ side with their own injury concerns. Sloane will take a bit of time to return to his best after being out for so long but will still be able to provide the precise ball movement inside 50 that the Crows have been sorely missing recently. The Crows at home will have all the motivation to get their season back on track with a win over one of the in-form teams of the competition.

West Coast

After a 10-game winning streak at the start of the season, the Eagles have dropped their last 2 games with a surprise loss to the Bombers last week at home. The absence of Darling and Kennedy in that game revealed just how important the two forwards are to the team and their lack of a tall threat inside 50 will again be a problem against the Crows. Adding to their woes will be the loss of Frenchy LeCras which will put a further dent in their scoring prospects this game. For the Eagles to win, the likes of Shuey and Yeo will need to threaten the sticks to supplement the gaping hole in their forward line.

Betting strategy

The model is predicting the Crows to break their losing drought at record a win against the high-flying Eagles at home with odds of $1.53 as value.

BACK – Crows to win at $1.53

Greater Western Sydney vs Hawthorn

Saturday 30th June, 7:25pm AEST Spotless Stadium

Greater Western Sydney

The prospects of the Giants reaching the finals took a severe hit this week with spearhead Jeremy Cameron copping a 5-match ban from the tribunal due to his sickening hit on Lions defender Harris Andrews. The loss of their leading goalkicker creates a big hole for the Giants with fellow star forward Toby Greene still a few weeks away from return. With the return of Lobb this week, Patton will be relieved of his co-ruck duties and will have big shoes to fill as he will be the Giant’s main tall target inside their 50. Despite their forward-line concerns, there is enough talent in their midfield that they should be able to control the centre and eke out the win.


The Hawks have had an up and down first half to the season but have managed to string a together a 3-game winning streak and will be eager to make that 4 this week with their first win at Spotless Stadium. The player that will be key in making this happen will be big man McEvoy who will hold a big advantage in the size and skill department over his Giants’ counterparts. He will play a key part in the quality of the inside-50 delivery and if they are able to get the ball to ground in there, their potent forward line should be able to find the sticks with the Giants defense proving to be shaky against the better teams in the competition.

Betting strategy

Despite their concerns in the forward-line, the model sees value in the Giants at home to win this game at odds of $1.77

BACK – GWS to win at $1.77

Related Articles

AFL Season 2018 – Round 14 Analysis

"Despite the Lions sitting on a single win for the season, the model shows this game being closer than ...

Read More

AFL Prediction Model

Betfair’s internal team of Data Scientists have created an AFL Prediction Model. Largely influenced by ELO ratings, the model ...

Read More

2018 FIFA World Cup – Golden Boot Preview

Football Formlabs give their in depth preview of the Golden Boot for the 2018 World Cup and make their ...

Read More