State of Origin: Game 3 Preview – New South Wales v Queensland

State-Of-Origin-2014-Paul-Gallen

Game 3

New South Wales v Queensland

Wednesday July 13, 8:00pm – ANZ Stadium

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Queensland won Game 2 to confirm another season victory and now go about completing the clean sweep for the fifth time in their history.

In team news the Blues selectors could no longer ignore the form nor public outcry to select Wests Tigers fullback James Tedesco, with Jack Bird replacing Adam Reynolds in the halves and Matt Moylan on the bench we will get a good look at the NSW of the future. Wade Graham also makes his debut and Josh Dugan returns in the centres.

Queensland lose bench players Josh Papali and Michael Morgan, replaced by Nate Myles and a much deserved debut for Gavin Cooper. There is no doubt though that they lose something from their recent game plan without Morgan.

Historical Match Statistics

(1980-82 excluded due to one-off matches and/or 3 point tries)

I’ve focused my study on Game 3 matches when the clean sweep was on the line, a perceived dead rubber if there is such a thing in Origin.

Game 3 matches when the clean sweep was on the line

  • Overall Attempts 16 Won 7 Lost 9. Since 2000 Attempts 6 Won 2 Lost 4. Qld Attempts 7 Won 4 lost 3
  • Overall Margin median 12 points. Since 2000 median 19 points
  • Overall Median Total points 38. Since 2000 Median 41.5 points
  • Margin result in 16 attempted sweeps. Since 2000 (in brackets)
    • Won 13+ – 3/16 (1/6)
    • Won 1-12 – 4/16 (1/6)
    • Lost 1-12 – 5/16 (1/6)
    • Lost 13+ – 4/16 (3/6)
  • Under/Over 37.5 points. Overall Under 8 Over 8. Since 2000 Under 1 Over 5

 

Betting Strategy

The overall trends when teams are attempting a clean sweep are very even. However, the recent trends, albeit on a small sample, point to a high-scoring open match and a NSW victory.

There will be plenty of emotion on either side with retiring players, but for NSW in what will surely be Paul Gallen’s last match they will have that small added incentive.

All of NSW has been waiting for the injection of Tedesco and with Moylan and Bird in the side and provided they aren’t overawed by the occasion I think the Blues can prevail.

Back on Betfair BACK NSW head to head at 1.80+ for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK NSW Over 12.5 points at 4.0+ for 0.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK over 37.5 at 1.9+ for 1.5 units

(Assuming 3 units to be a maximum bet)

 

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