Queensland v New South Wales
Wednesday June 22, 8:00pm – Suncorp Stadium
Game 1 was certainly a war of attrition with the Maroons edging the match 6-4. Once again we saw NSW try to bash and barge their way to victory, but with conditions ideal they still failed to get over the line.
In team news Jacob Lillyman comes in for Nate Myles, arguably a positive change given Myles form. NSW lose one of their best from Game One in second rower Boyd Cordner to be replaced by Tyson Frizzel. Josh Morris is also out replaced by Dylan Walker in his favoured centre position who is in turn replaced by the very exciting Jack Bird in the bench utility spot. For Bird’s sake I hope NSW don’t wait till the 72 minute to throw him in as they naively did with Walker in game 1.
The weather looks perfect so hopefully we get a more expansive game, though the recent stats suggest it may again be a tight low scoring match.
Historical Match Statistics
(1980-82 excluded due to 1 off matches and/or 3 point tries)
I’ve focused my study on three historical factors. All game 2 matches, all games at Lang Park and the most recent 10 matches irrespective of venue
Game 2 Played 33 NSW 19 Qld 14
- Median Margin 8 points
- Median Total points 29
- Margin Probability (28 matches excluding 5 matches at Neutral venues)
- Home 13+ – $4.67
- Home 1-12 – $1.87
- Away 1-12 – $5.60
- Away 13+ – $14
- Under/Over 35.5 points. Under 23 Over 10
In QLD Played 49 Qld 31 NSW 17 Draw 2
- Median Margin 10 points, however last 10 at Lang Park median 22
- Under/Over 35.5 points. Under 22 Over 28.
Last 10 matches (note that all matches are when Laurie Daley has been in charge of NSW)
- Qld won 6 NSW won 4
- Median points scored NSW 9, Qld 11.5
- Median Total points 21.5 and at 35.5 points Under 7 Over 3.
- Median margin 6 points with 7 of 10 less than or equal to 8 points
The historical trends point in conflicting directions in regard to the main markets. I was keen to side with Queensland 1-12 but the recent blow outs at Lang Park concern me, even if the most recent 10 matches and overall Game 2 trends suggest home 1-12 to be a good bet.
One stat not quoted above is that of 11 teams that have won Game 1 away from home, nine have gone on to clinch the series at home in Game 2.
BACK – Queensland head to head at 1.40+ for 2 units
BACK – Under 35.5 at 1.90+ for 1 unit
Assuming 3 units to be a maximum bet