HOUSTON (-3.5) Indianapolis (48.5)
Indianapolis survived at home over Chicago last week 29-23. They gave up 125 yards rushing at 6.6ypr, while rushing for 98 yards at 4.7ypr. Indy averaged 6.8yps but allowed Chicago to throw for 9.2yps and Indy was sacked five times as well. Overall, Indy was out gained 8.4yppl against 6.1yppl.
Houston fell behind 24-0 and never had a chance at Minnesota. They averaged just 3.4yps while allowing Minnesota to average 8.0yps. Overall, the Vikings out gained Houston 5.1yppl to 3.6yppl and it was only that close because Minnesota ran the ball 23 more times, while Houston threw the ball 12 more times. Minnesota controlled the clock by about 15 more minutes.
For the season, Indy has been average on offense gaining 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, they allow 4.6ypr against 3.7ypr, 7.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.6yppl against 5.3yppl.
Houston’s challenge will be to take advantage of the horrible Colts defense with their own anemic offense. They average just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.2yps against 6.7yps and 4.7yppl against 5.7yppl. On defense, Houston is allowing 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, just 5.8yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.666yppl overall.
For Indianapolis WR Donte Moncrief is out. CB Darius Butler is questionable. CB Patrick Robinson is also questionable. Both CB’s are very ‘iffy’ for this game.
Houston could be without three starters in their secondary as CB Kareem Jackson, Johnathan Joseph and SS Quintin Demps. Joseph may play and Jackson will probably be a game time decision. Demps has now been ruled out. RG Jeff Allen is likely to miss this game and RT Derek Newton is questionable.
I don’t have any situations on the side in this game but this game does qualify in an under situation, which is 287-199-2, including 68-33-2 since 2013. My numbers favor Houston by 5.5 points and project about 46 points.
Houston has managed 19-27 points in their three home games and should get to 23 or so in this game against a poor Indianapolis defense. The question becomes can they hold a pretty good Indianapolis offense to less than that. Indy has been sacked 20 times already this year and if Houston can’t get to Andrew Luck it will be a long game. Houston has lost three straight home games to Indy and four of the last five games. They have problems stepping up when needed, especially in prime time. The numbers say they finally step up and other than Andrew Luck there isn’t much to like on this Indy team. They have a good receiver in TY Hilton and a good CB in Vontae Davis. It gets pretty ugly after that.
HOUSTON 24 INDIANAPOLIS 20
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play