NFL Week 5: Sunday Night Football – New York Giants @ Green Bay

Posted: October 10, 2016

 

GREEN BAY -7.5 NY Giants  u/o 48pts

 

The schedule makers did the Giants no favors asking them to go to Minnesota last Monday night and turn around and now play GB on Sunday night again on the road, with GB coming off their bye week. NY lost 24-10 last week at Minnesota and played pretty well, considering the opponent, but they really never had a chance in the game. They out rushed Minnesota 4.3ypr to 3.2ypr but were out passed badly, 7.3yps to 5.8yps. While Minnesota failed to sack Eli he was clearly dumping the ball into the ground to avoid sacks and that saved negative yardage plays but also still impacted their downs. Overall, the Giants averaged 5.4yppl to 5.3yppl for Minnesota but Minnesota ran the ball 15 more times, while the Giants passed the ball nine more times. Minnesota controlled the clock for about 11 more minutes in the game.

GB comes off their bye week and a 34-27 victory over Detroit, in which they led 31-3 at halftime, before shutting it down. GB out rushed the Lions 5.1ypr to 2.2ypr but were out passed 8.4yps to 7.7yps as the Packers played with a depleted defense, as did Detroit as well. Overall, GB out gained 6.5yppl to 6.2yppl and those numbers were closer than they should have been but Detroit threw the ball 18 more times.

The Giants come in averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr but 7.3yps against 6.7yps. Overall, they average 6.0yppl against 5.8yppl. On defense, they allow just 3.2ypr against 3.7ypr and 6.4yps against 6.9yps. Overall, the Giants allow just 5.1yppl against 5.6yppl.

GB is about average on offense, gaining 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, their run defense has been outstanding, allowing just 1.8ypr against 3.3ypr. The pass defense, however, has been hurt by injuries and allowing 7.6yps against 6.4yps. Overall, they allow 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl.

For the Giants CB Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple are questionable but look like they will return. TE Larry Donnell is out as well as safeties Darian Thompson and Nat Behre and RT Marshall Newhouse.

For Green Bay they will be without TE Jared Cook and CB Sam Shields. CB Damarious Randall is listed as questionable with a groin injury.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers only favor GB by one point and project about 43 points. For what it’s worth Giants head coach Ben McAdoo comes back to GB. McAdoo should have a pretty comfortable idea of what GB likes to do but he is also running an offense similar to what GB runs as well. He may have a good idea on how to attack certain players on the Packers.

There is pretty good value on the Giants in this game and they have the better defense. With that said, both defenses are banged up in the secondary so it’s hard to say which defense is better at this point. In theory the Packers offense is probably better but the numbers don’t spell that out yet this year so we are getting a full touchdown with potentially the better offense and defense. That’s pretty good value and worth taking. While my numbers are suggesting a lower scoring game, this game has all the makings of a high scoring game. This game figures to have a lot of action in the air, with skill position wide receivers against banged up secondary’s.

Forecast

GREEN BAY 30 NY GIANTS 27

 

YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play