NFL Week 5: Monday Night Football – Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Posted: October 10, 2016

CAROLINA -4.5 Tampa Bay u/o 44.5

 

TB lost for the third straight week and second straight week at home, losing to Denver 27-7. They were out passed 6.2yps to 3.6yps and turned the ball over three times to the Broncos. Overall, they were out gained 4.6yppl to 3.3yppl.

Carolina was supposed to be focused coming off a home loss when they went to Atlanta last week but once again they struggled in Atlanta, in their 48-33 thrashing by Atlanta. They were out passed 12.0yps to 6.7yps. Overall, they were out gained 8.8yppl to 5.9yppl.

 

TB comes in averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.5yps against 5.7yps. Overall, they average just 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense has been good against the rush, allowing just 3.3ypr against 3.9ypr but 7.4yps against 7.1yps. Overall, on defense, TB allows 5.5yppl against 5.8yppl. Their biggest problem has been a negative nine in the turnover ratio.

Carolina has really struggled this year. While the passing offense has been above average, at 6.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl, the defense has let them down this year. What was once known as a great pass defense, has allowed 7.6yps against 7.4yps this year. Overall, they allow 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl on defense.

Tampa Bay has numerous injuries in this game. DT Gerald McCoy, DE Robert Ayers, DT Clinton McDonald, TE Luke Stocker and RB’s Doug Martin and Charlie Sims are all likely to miss this game. Back in week one TB lost DE Jacquies Smith and now McCoy. Those are big losses along that line for quarterback sacks and pressures. DT Clinton McDonald has filled the gap but he is now hurt as well.

For Carolina, they will be without QB Cam Newton as they go with Derek Anderson who is a capable back up. They cut CB Bene Benwikere after his horrible game against Atlanta and Julio Jones. Carolina let Josh Norman go in the off-season and they are now relying solely on rookie cornerbacks. Carolina will also be without LT Michael Oher, RB Jonathan Stewart, CB James Bradberry and DT Vernon Butler.

Carolina qualifies in a negative situation that plays against home favorites who are performing poorly on the season. That situation is 183-90-6 and plays against Carolina in this game as long as they are favored by more than six points. They also qualify in another negative similar situation if they become favorites of more than seven points, which is 284-173-9. TB comes off two straight home losses but that actually sets them up in a positive situation, which is 169-111-7. My numbers favor Carolina by 6 points and project about 49 points.

Both team’s defenses have performed poorly this year with TB allowing at least 24 points in every game and Carolina allowing at least 21 points in every game. Both team’s offenses have done well against below average offenses, scoring in the 30’s or higher when facing those teams. At the same time, when they have faced above average defenses, they have both scored 10 or fewer points. Both of these teams have underperforming and very poor secondary’s right now and both offenses have the skill set receivers to take advantage of that. Both sets of receivers are big receivers and Carolina also has some speed they can take advantage of the TB secondary. I’d look at TB if this line got back up to +7 or better but I think they have over adjusted the total on this game and it should be higher scoring than what they are projecting. 

 

Forecast

CAROLINA 27 TAMPA BAY 23

 

YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play