Green Bay -3 @ Detroit 49.5
Monday January 2, 12:30pm AEDT
Green Bay (9-6)
GB averages 4.5ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr and overall is gaining 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. The defence continues to struggle, especially against the pass, where they allow 7.0yps against teams averaging 6.5yps. Overall they give up 5.9yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl.
Detroit has been pretty average on offense this year gaining 5.5yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. The defence, which showed itself last week against one of the few good offenses they have faced this year, allows 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl.
OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play
- For GB RB James Starks is out.
- For Detroit C Travis Swanson is out as is RB Theo Riddick, which was expected but is a blow for the Lions. CB Darius Slay will give likely give it a go but it remains to be seen how long he can play if he does play. The Lions need him badly.
Detroit qualifies in an average situation, which plays on home dogs who allowed over 40 points last week, which is 47-18-2. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 287-199-2. My numbers favour GB by one point and project about 47 points. The Packers offense has changed dramatically since TE Jared Cook got healthy and was able to help stretch the field and force teams to defend the middle of the field. Ultimately, it has opened up the deeper passing game to guys like Jordy Nelson, etc. While Cook hasn’t had great numbers the Packers offense, as a whole, has opened up greatly since he came back.
They’ve scored 27 or more points in six of nine games Cook has played in this year and scored less than 27 points in five of six games he has missed this year. The three games they did not were against Minnesota in week two (very good defence), against Houston (very good defence) and against Washington (Packers suffered numerous injuries in that game but still scored 24 points). Since that time GB has averaged 30 points per game against teams allowing 21 points per game (compared to the 27 vs 22 for the whole season) and averaged 7.4yps against teams giving up 6.2yps. They have averaged 6.2yppl against teams giving up 5.4yppl.
The defence, however, as regressed defending the run and during that same time is allowing 4.9ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr. Detroit has struggled to run the ball this year but they may find success against a Packer run defence that is struggling. The pass defence has allowed 6.8yps against teams averaging 6.4yps and 6.1yppl against teams gaining 5.5yppl. When I rerun the numbers based on those games I get GB by 1.5 points and a projection of about 51 points instead of 47 points.
The Lions haven’t faced a lot of good offensive teams this year. They have faced Indianapolis (35 pts), Tennessee (16 pts), Green Bay (34 pts), Washington (17 pts), New Orleans (13 pts) and Dallas (42 pts). But, Washington only had eight drives, were able to score on three of them, turned it over on two other drives, missed a FG and punted on only two of eight drives, while averaging 6.0 yards per play.
Against the Saints, NO averaged 6.5yppl but turned it over three times. Tennessee averaged 6.1yppl and scored on three of eight drives, turned it over two times and punted three times. Detroit has played slow this year and limited their opponents drives the best they can. But, if the opponent isn’t turning the ball over and Detroit can’t slow play the game, their defence hasn’t been good enough to stop the opponents. Rodgers is 14/0 in touchdowns and interceptions the last six games so it’s not likely a Lions team that has generated only 14 turnovers all year will get much in that area this week.
Detroit has scored more than 28 points just once this year and GB is likely to get into the high 20’s in this game. During this run GB hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in a game. With all that said, GB has won only one game on the road this year by more than four points so this won’t necessarily be easy but GB is playing too well right now and Detroit typically finds a way to lose these types of games. Stafford doesn’t have a good history of beating teams that finish the season above .500. This year he is 1-4 SU in games against teams guaranteed to finish above .500. Detroit is coming off two losses against two good teams but both of those games were on the road.
Much of GB’s recent success was at home and they haven’t played as well on the road this year. GB is 0-4 ats as a road favourite this year. I’ll let the line dictate which way I lean. This is a tough call. GB should win this game but the line value is in favour of Detroit. I could see a high scoring game but I’m respectful of the terrific under situation in this game. I doubt we will get there but if this total gets to 53 I would look to go under as well.
GREEN BAY 27 DETROIT 24