New England -7.5 v Seattle 49
Monday November 14, 12:30pm AEDT
The Pats come off their bye week which saw them defeat Buffalo on the road 41-25 and out gained Buffalo 5.9yppl to 5.5yppl but were out gaining the Bills by about 6.4yppl to 4.7yppl before finally shutting it down some when they were way ahead of Buffalo.
Seattle struggled and maybe needed some helps from the refs to defeat Buffalo on Monday night 31-25. They were badly out rushed in the game 162 yards to 33 yards and 4.3ypr to 2.8ypr. They did manage to out pass Buffalo 8.2yps to 6.0yps and overall out gain the Bills 6.6yppl to 5.2yppl. Buffalo controlled the clock by about 20 more minutes than Seattle but couldn’t execute in the end to win the game.
Seattle averages 3.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.6yps and 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.9yps against 6.5yps and 4.9yppl against 5.6yppl.
New England averages 3.5ypr against 4.4ypr, 8.8yps against 7.2yps and 6.5yppl against 6.0yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.7ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl.
For Seattle RB Thomas Rawls will miss this game and LT Bradley Sowell is questionable. RB Christine Michael may also miss this game. DE Michael Bennett continues to be out after surgery a few weeks ago.
For New England WR Chris Hogan may miss this game. NE is relatively healthy otherwise.
I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favour New England by seven points and project about 42 points. Seattle is 8-4-1 ats since 2012 and has not been this large a dog since being 7.5 point dogs at SF in 2012 in a game they covered and lost by seven points. New England, however, is 8-2-3 ats as home favourites of seven or more points. This is a tough spot for Seattle coming off a Monday night game and now traveling across the country to Boston. Seattle’s defence the last three weeks has been on the field for 90, 72 and 82 plays. Tom Brady has yet to throw an interception since his return and the Pats have won all four games by at least 11 points and scored at least 27 in each of those games. Over the last six games the Pats defence has allowed more than 17 points just once and that was in their last game with Buffalo where the Bills scored in mop up duty once the game was well out of reach.
Seattle has played two offensive juggernauts like the Patriots and allowed 24 points to Atlanta and 25 points at New Orleans, holding both of those teams to well below their seasonal averages. They did allow the Bills 25 points on Monday night but Buffalo brings a completely different element to defend than what New England will show the Seahawks. Incidentally those three games where Seattle allowed 24, 25 and 25 points were all games without Kam Chancellor who returns this week. Prior to Chancellor getting hurt Seattle hadn’t allowed more than 18 points. The offenses they played after the injury were much more dynamic than before but Chancellor is a huge upgrade for Seattle.
Both these teams seem to perform well in their respective roles in this game so I’m not going against either team. But, I do like the under in this game. The Seahawks defence is very good and while NE will get their points I don’t expect them to score the 34 points they have been averaging since Brady returned. Let’s remember New England has faced Cleveland at 0.6 worse than average, Cincinnati at 0.2 worse than average, Pittsburgh at 0.4 worse than average and Buffalo at 0.2 worse than average. They now get Seattle whose defence is 0.7 better than average. At the same time, New England’s defence is pretty good and should limit a Seattle offense that struggles to run the ball. That will likely mean more throwing for Seattle but I don’t expect them to get much beyond 20 points in this game.
New England 23 Seattle 17
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play