NFL Week 10: Monday Night Football – Cincinnati @ NY Giants

Posted: November 14, 2016

 

Cincinnati -1 @ NY Giants 47

Tuesday November 15, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Cincinnati comes off their bye week and a 27-27 tie in London with Washington. They out rushed the Redskins 4.2ypr to 3.2ypr including rushing for 152 yards. They were out passed 7.8yps to 5.8yps and out gained overall 6.2yppl to 5.1yppl.

The Giants used two early Philadelphia turnovers to jump out to a 14-0 lead and held on by stopping the Eagles three times on fourth down, taking over at their own 28, 6 and 17 yard lines. They were out rushed 3.8ypr to 2.3ypr, out passed 7.1yps to 6.7yps and out gained 6.0yppl to 5.0yppl.

Cincinnati averages 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.0yps against 6.7yps and 5.9yppl against 5.7yppl.

The Giants average 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl.

For Cincinnati LB Rey Maualuga is out.

The Giants will be without LG Justin Pugh. LB Jonathan Casillas is listed as questionable and was a late addition to the injury report, which is hardly ever a good sign. WR Victor Cruz and S Andrew Adams are also listed as questionable.

The Giants qualify in a negative fundamental situation, which is 592-460-21 and plays against them here if they are a favourite. My numbers favour NY by 4.5 points before accounting for the negative situation against them and project about 47 points. Cincinnati has played a really tough schedule this year that has lightened up as of late. But, for Cincinnati, they have allowed at least 22 points in every game this year except their games against Miami (Thursday night travel for Miami with a decimated offensive line) and against Cleveland. Both of those games were at home. They are likely to allow something in the 20’s again this week. On the other side, since getting Tyler Eifert back at TE, they have scored at least 27 points in each of those games. Those games were against Cleveland and Washington so they will face a tougher defense in NY this week but the Giants have allowed at least 23 points in five of their last six games.

The Giants have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three home games and they figure to get into and allow in the 20’s in this game as well. The Bengals have the better offensive line in this game and should be able to move the ball enough to get into the 20’s. The Giants can’t run the ball, which always leaves this one dimensional and they have to hope they can throw the ball. They usually can do that and are at home so that helps them as well. I expect both teams to get into the 20’s but I like the team that’s not quite as reliant on just the passing game. If this line moves back to NY being favoured I will get on the Bengals in this game. If this total drops down under 47 points I would consider looking at the over.

 

Forecast

Cincinnati 27 NY Giants 23

 

YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play

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