Champion Bets NFL: Wild Card Weekend – Sunday January 8th 2017

Posted: January 7, 2017

Oakland 36.5 @ Houston -4

Sunday January 8, 8:35am AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Oakland (12-4)

Oakland failed miserably last week at Denver in their 24-6 thumping. They were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.4yppl but Denver rushed the ball 24 more times (each team averaged 3.6ypr) to dilute the final numbers. Matt McCloin was horrible, throwing for 21 yards on 6 for 11 passing. He was hurt and replaced by Connor Cook who averaged 6.8yps and potentially was better than McCloin but if anyone knows about replacements looking good one week and then not so good the following week it’s Houston.

This game features two teams who are both below average from the line of scrimmage. Oakland averages 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl but they allow 6.1yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl so they are plus 0.3yppl on offense but -0.6yppl on defense. Overall they are -0.3yppl.

Houston (9-7)

Houston’s Tom Savage replaced Brock Osweiler a few weeks ago against Jacksonville and led his team back for a victory but then looked below average the last two weeks. So, caution is the word for Connor Cook, who will get the start this week.

Houston rested many of their players last week in their 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The game was pretty evenly played but it was a meaningless game so not much can be gained from that game.

Houston is just the opposite, averaging 4.7yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl but allows only 5.1yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl. They are -0.8yppl on offense and 0.4yppl on defense. Overall they are -0.4yppl.

Key Stats

OaklandPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence26241204.42536.65.71184.52587.36.1
Defence23241104.22396.25.41094.12446.45.5

HoustonPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence17201164.11985.24.710042025.85.1
Deffence23231084.22426.35.51064.12466.55.5

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • For Oakland QB Derek Carr and LT Donald Penn are out.
  • For Houston LB John Simon and QB Tom Savage are out.

The Verdict

I don’t have any situations on this game. If I use all games this year I get Houston by 1.5 points and project about 42 points. There is a definite drop off with Connor Cook compared to Derek Carr. In some ways this game is a lot like last week’s game against Denver in that we have an anemic offence in Houston but a very strong defence with the Texans. I expect Oakland to be better than last week and the initial shock of not having Derek Carr is gone and they will game plan accordingly and run the ball more and better than they did last week.

But, I still expect issues for them. Their only saving grace is Houston is also not a very good team for a playoff team and time after time seems to come up short in big games. Houston dominated for three quarters but ultimately lost 27-20 to Oakland earlier in the year when these two met in Mexico. Houston is 7-1 SU at home this year. It’s tough to lay a lot of points with Houston and although I think Oakland will be better than they were last week if they can’t get their offence going, on the road, against a good Houston defence, the Texans will do enough to cover this game against a poor Oakland defence.

Oakland hasn’t scored more than 19 points in its last three road games and I find it difficult they will score more than 19 in this game. They allowed Houston 20 points in the first meeting and Houston should have had more points but there were some questionable calls in that game that really cost them. Houston is now at home as well. I think this is just too much for Oakland to overcome. Of course, Brock Osweiler is also at quarterback so the opponent is never really completely out of the game

Forecast

HOUSTON 23 OAKLAND 13

Detriot 44 @ Seattle -8

Sunday January 8, 12:15pm AEDT 

Moneyline

Detriot (9-7)

Detroit failed to execute when they needed to last week and ultimately it cost them the game. The game was pretty evenly played at the line of scrimmage as Detroit gained 6.4yppl and GB averaged 6.3yppl. GB rushed for 4.9ypr and allowed 3.6ypr while Detroit averaged 8.1yps and allowed GB 7.6yps. GB controlled the clock for about eight more minutes. The difference in the game came down to GB scoring on one more drive than Detroit and GB scoring four touchdowns and kicking one field goal and Detroit scoring three touchdowns (final score on a Hail Mary) and kicking one field goal.

Detroit also missed a field goal as well. Take away the Hail Mary, which doesn’t really count in the meat of the game and Detroit scored on only three drives to five drives for GB.

Detroit is a pretty average team, at best, as they average 5.5yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl but they allow 5.9yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl and are below average defending both the run and the pass.

Seattle (10-5-1)

Seattle fell behind 14-3 to SF but that’s nothing new as SF jumped out to a double digit lead at home in the early going for the fourth time this year and then proceeded to get shut down for the remaining three quarters and lose the game. In this case, they were out gained 366-99 over the final three quarters, which also saw Seattle pull their starters once they realised they had no legitimate shot at the number two seed.

Seattle is above average on both offence and defence, gaining 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl and allowing just 5.0yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl. Their offense does only average 22 points per game against teams allowing 24 points per game so they are below average scoring despite being above average from the line of scrimmage. Since Earl Thomas was put in IR the Seattle defence has declined and they now rate as just average in games without Earl Thomas.

Key Stats

DetriotPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence2222823.72576.55.51074.42486.95.9
Deffence23221044.12426.45.51054.12446.35.5

DetriotPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence2218993.92596.85.7933.42276.35
Deffence24231134.22436.45.51124.22336.25.4

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • For Detroit C Travis Swanson is questionable as is R Riley Reiff. Both missed last week’s game and Swanson has missed several weeks now.
  • For Seattle DT Tony McDaniels is out. That is a big loss for Seattle. RB C.J. Prosise is also out.

The Verdict

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favour Seattle by 8.5 points and project about 42 points. Detroit has overachieved all year and they are 0-5 SU & ATS against playoff teams this year. The closest they’ve come in any of those games is seven points twice against GB but in both of those games they were down big and scored meaningless touchdowns to get within seven so they haven’t been competitive at all against playoff teams. Detroit scored just 13 points at Houston and 6 points at the Giants when facing above average playoff defences. How good is Seattle’s defence? That’s a good question because since Earl Thomas was hurt their defence has been just average.

If Detroit faces just an average Seattle defence they can score close to 20 points but I have a feeling they will face a better than average defence on Saturday night. Seattle is back in their mode where you can pretty much write them down for at least 27 points at home. They’ve scored 24 or more points in their last seven home games and Detroit will give up at least 27 points in this game short of them winning the turnover battle. That has been the only way the Lions have shut down good offensive teams this year was because of turnovers. If this line were to go to -7 I would take Seattle.

Forecast

SEATTLE 27 DETROIT 16

Related Articles