Sandown Park, Thursday 19th May: The Form Hound – Harrison-Dawson & Sapphire Crown Final

Posted: May 19, 2016

Form Hound

R6 Sapphire Crown Final 515m Group 1

Track Record

Unlawful Entry 28.951 seconds (17/3/2016)

Recent Winners

2015 – Lamia Bale

2014 – Oakvale Destiny

2013 – Xylia Allen

2012 – Peggy May

2011 – Amakler Girl

Race Analysis

Cash In Motion really caught the eye in her heat run which was her first look at the track. She has an awkward draw here but I’m keen to stick with her. There is plenty of early speed and I expect her to miss the early charge and settle in a position along the rail into the first turn.

Folio Bale began sensationally last start as she can be risky away, can she repeat that effort? If so her close to even money quote is justified from the cherry. Nymeria can explode out of the boxes and pawed at the boxes at the wrong moment in her heat, she chased her heart out and looks a danger.

Shared Equity ran the quickest first split but the slowest overall winning time where she used plenty of track, even though she is well drawn I expect she will exert too much energy in the first two sections. The fact she has drawn eight may mean she is over bet on the exchange.

Narralee is back to her best form but there is so much pressure around her she may get shuffled back early. Mepunga Fame is the wildcard of the field, winning or running last would not surprise me and the Jeff Britton kennel always have a sense of great timing about their runners, I will be including if she drifts from the early market price.

Field and Stats

1. Folio Bale: Best 29.31, recorded this time in heat win, first split of 5.07. Three wins from seven starts Box 1. Two wins from five starts this trip. Has won five out of past six on city tracks.

2. Narralee: Best 29.42 (29/1/15). Won her heat in in 29.56 leading all the way, first split of 5.02. Seven of 16 career wins Boxes 1-4. Has led all the way in her past three starts.

3. Skate Thin Ice: No best time. Ran 29.76 when dead heating for second in heat, first split of 5.11. Has yet to win here in five attempts. Does her best racing this draw (4 wins).

4. Mepunga Fame: Best 29.51 (3/4/16). Won her heat in 29.53 with a first split of 5.04. Has won five of her past six starts. Has only had two starts from Boxes 3-5 (1 win).

5. Cash In Motion: No winning time. Ran 29.76 when dead heating for second in heat with a first split of 5.18 (first look at track). Five times in the money from seven starts this draw.

6. Nymeria: Best 29.35 (17/3/16). Runner up in heat in 29.43 with a first split of 5.12. Has a first split PB of 4.99. 2 from 2 from this draw.

7. Star Torana: Best 29.78 (6/12/15). Second in heat with a time of 29.67. Never worse than second this trip (2 starts). This has been her worst draw (1 win/1 placing).

8. Shared Equity: Best 29.22 (29/10/15). Won her heat in 29.64 with a first split of 4.97 (quickest). Slowest overall heat winner. Wide runner who uses plenty of track.

9. It’s All Talk: 1st emergency. Best 29.52 (13/12/15). Second in heat with a time of 29.77. First split of 5.08. Has won 13 of 16 starts. Two unplaced runs have been over this trip.

10. Moonlit Wings: 2nd emergency. Best 29.55 (8/5/16). Third in heat with a time of 29.76. First split of 5.21 (slowest). Seven placings from 12 starts over this trip.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cash In Motion (5) >$5.00 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mepunga Fame (4) > $14.00 for 1 unit

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Shared Equity (8) < $4.80 for 2 units

R8 Harrison Dawson Final 515m Group 1

Track Record

Unlawful Entry 28.951 seconds (17/3/2016)

Recent Winners

2015 – Fernando Bale

2014 – Awesome Project

2013 – Clone Your Own

2012 – General Destini

Race Analysis

Dalgetty was luckless in his heat run last week and was kept wide and pressured throughout the race. Even though he has lost his past five starts he is still racing with great heart. I’m confident he will show more acceleration than the dogs underneath him and land on the rail early.

Blazin’ Bomber has been brilliant since resuming from injury and if he can find the rail in the back straight he will be finishing powerfully. Dundee Osprey is hard to catch but on his night is a flying machine, his major concern are his poor box manners.

One For Me looks better drawn off the track and amazingly has never started from Box 1. I don’t think he will like being crowded early and I am laying him. Tiggerlong Await has a poor draw here with a place chance at best. Soda Man began impressively in his heat but will find it hard against these, his draw has added many degrees of difficulty to his chances.

Field and Stats

1. One For Me: Best 29.48 (15/11/15). Runner up in heat with a time of 29.32 and a first split of 5.11. Has never raced from Box 1. Only one win from four starts Box 2.

2. Dundee Osprey: Best 29.11 (18/2/16). Won his heat in 29.31 with a first split of 5.15. 3 wins from 6 starts over this trip. One win from two starts this draw.

3. Blazin’ Bomber: Best 29.09 (5/5/16). Recorded best time in winning the Speedstar series. Won heat start in 29.15 with a first split of 5.13. Has won five of six since resuming from injury.

4. Dalgetty: Best 29.09 (24.3/16). Ran second in heat with a time of 29.59 with a first split of 5.11. Has lost his past five starts. Great record this draw (4 wins).

5. Tiggerlong Await: Best 29.36. Runner up in heat with a time of 29.70 with a first split of 5.14. Runner up in Group 1 Perth Cup. Been placed in past six of eight

6. Soda Man: Best 29.38 (28/1/2016). Led all the way in heat running 29.45 with a first split of 5.03. Has been in the money six of nine starts over this trip.

7. Invictus Rapid: Best 29.20, recorded this time in heat win with a first split of 5.10. 7 of 12 career wins have come from Boxes 1-4. Six Top-3 finishes from seven starts this draw.

8. Aston Bolero: Best 29.59 (28/1/16). Runner up in heat with a time of 29.36, first split of 5.00 (quickest). Two wins from three starts this draw. Not worse than second in his past seven starts.

9. Zambora Brockie: 1st emergency. No winning time. Ran 29.43 when third in heat. First split of 5.14. Nine of 16 career wins from Boxes 1-4. Has won from every draw.

10. Both Sides Now: 2nd emergency. Best 29.37 (15/10/16), third in heat with a time of 29.45. First split of 5.22 (slowest). Has most experience and wins over this trip (19 starts/6 wins).

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dalgetty (4) > $3.60 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dundee Osprey (2) > $12.00 for 1 unit

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) One for Me (1) < $7.50 for 2 units