Sandown Backs and Lays: Thursday 7th December 2017

Race 1 – 515m – 1-4 wins

#1 Toss and Turn

He really caught my eye in winning a maiden recently in handy time at Shepparton. Normally, I would prefer them to have had a look at the circuit before I back them, but with trainer Brett Bravo taking him straight to town, and with the aid of Box 1, I am happy to take on trust here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Toss and Turn (2 units at > $3.20)

#2 Degani

He was a massive run over this trip last Sunday, he copped a huge check and had no right to finish as close as he did. He also mapped really well off the mat in that race and he doesn’t get those favours here. I prefer him from an outside draw as he tends to spear off on the turns and based on that last run he is likely to be over bet in this event.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Degani (2 units at < $2.70)

Race 2 – 515m – 2-4 wins

#4 Garick Olivander

This chaser has been putting in some great runs lately in some quality races on the provincial circuit. Even though he has yet to win here in 5 attempts, I believe this is the easiest city race he has come across, back to a restricted win race. He is versatile enough to be forward early or come from behind and this distance range suits.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Garick Olivander (2 units at > $5.50)

 

#7 Barwell Boy

In a tricky race where there are several chances and some out of form chasers, this fellow should get forward early, if not lead clearly and he should be able to hold on for a placing. His two most recent runs here suggest he is edging very close to a win so I am happy to take shorter odds and have the insurance of a placing.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE</> ) Barwell Boy (2 units at > $1.55)

Race 3 – 515m – 3-4 wins

#2 Helicopter Harry

He has been most unlucky in his two recent runs at The Meadows where he has been hammered on the first turn. He has had one run at Sandown Park winning in a slick 29.50 from the same box he draws tonight. He should represent great value on the exchange and could give us a solid bank for the rest of the night.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Helicopter Harry (3 units at > $7.00)

 

#5 Benali LAY

This chaser has only missed a placing twice in 11 career starts. This is even more impressive given that he has had a bunch of squeeze draws. He again has been hit by another middle draw. Even though he tends to mid track, you could make a case that the draw isn’t as bad as it seems, but I believe Hasten Slowly and Dr Mino may chop him off out of the boxes and he could find a stack of trouble so I am happy to lay.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Benali (1 unit at < $3.70)

Race 4 – 715m – Special Event

#1 Cadalora

He is racing like he needs every bit of 700 metres of late. He didn’t have much luck here last start over 595m where he was stuck behind a wall of dogs down the back straight and was only getting warm late. The smaller field should ensure less traffic problems and 4 wins from 6 starts from Box 1 is another tick. I am hoping he proves too classy.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cadalora (2 units at > $2.40)

 

#5 Moment to Jive

This lay bet may give Betfair Analyst followers heart palpations in the run. She does look the early leader on the map with Jaimandy Hatty and Mick’s Angel showing no early pace along with two empty boxes. She has been well travelled of late and I am banking on her tiring by the home turn. If any of Cadalora, Jaimandy Hatty or Mick’s Angel can get a sit on her I am confident they will run over her late.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Moment to Jive (3 units at < $2.70)

Race 5 – 515m – Grade 5

#7 Tito Mojito

Something will have to give her on the first turn and I am not sure he can get a cart across cleanly. Oronsay and Tim Tam for Bams should get forward early and the wide running Nangar Range could be a pest to him. This dog has been in great form of late hence just a small lay bet here.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Tito Mojito (1 unit at < $6.50)

Race 6 – 515m – Grade 4

#4 Zipping Chang

He was a successful lay for Betfair Analyst followers last week and he has a much tougher draw tonight. He will be right in the market and this race is only marginally easier than last week. Dyna Fabrice could cause chaos early as he is drawn upside down and Noaki Colour and River Crossing should be able to rail underneath him early.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Zipping Chang (1 unit at < $7.00)

 

#6 Roman Nose Zarr

He has been finding too much trouble in his races lately. He looked the winner on the home turn last week but seemed to find a way to lose by a lip. Tonight he steps back in distance to the 515m and along with the squeeze draw this looks too difficult to overcome.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Roman Nose Zarr (1 unit at < $7.00)

Race 7 – 595m – Mixed 4/5

#2 Ving Bale

He looks to have a great draw here and I see no reason why he can’t lead and find a nice passage through along the fence early in this event. He has great formlines and if he can slightly better his PB of 34.59 that could be good enough to win this.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ving Bale (2 units at > $4.00)

 

#4 She’s Got Grace

She had a purple patch of great form earlier this year but has been no way near her best of late. She didn’t have much luck in running from a tricky draw here last week but the facts are she has not won in her past 12 starts. Even if she does lead tonight I believe she will get swamped late.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) She’s Got Grace (1 unit at < $6.00)

Race 8 – 515m – Free For All

#3 Verne Allen

Tricky race and I am betting without much confidence here. Any of these 8 could win with the right luck in running but I am settling on Verne Allen. He has had some horror wide draws lately and this draw may suit him better. He may be able to push up along the fence down the back straight and come home like a freight train.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Verne Allen (2 units at > $6.00)

 

#1 Black Mumbo

This chaser was airborne earlier this year and has a scintillating 29.28 PB over this trip in June. There is a possibility his best form is behind him. He has failed to win in his past 8 starts despite averaging a starting price on the tote of $3.30. His run in a recent heat of the Ballarat Cup was only fair and I am happy to be against him here.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Black Mumbo (2 units at < $2.50)

Race 9 – 515m – Grade 5

#1 One Plus Two

There would not be many more honest chasers going around then this dog. His only kryptonite has been this track and trip where he has just 1 win from 13 starts. However, he looks to map pretty well here and should get a nice run through the first turn along the paint. Then it will simply be a matter of him holding on to win, as this distance range is his absolute limit. He should be a great price and I am happy to roll the dice.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) One Plus Two (2 units at > $4.20)

 

#5 Dyna Wazza

Another to feature in consecutive weeks in the lay column. He has stacks of ability but has found a really tricky race here with a squeeze draw. At this stage of his career I was hoping for a slightly easier race. Kalani Klare and Warrion Warrior show early pace and could be all over him early and I am satisfied he has enough negatives against him to lay.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Dyna Wazza (2 units at < $5.00)

Race 10 – 595m – Grade 5

#2 Carla Zeus

She was excellent in winning in 30.00 over 525m last month at The Meadows. Her run home time of 12.16 in that race suggests she will have no problems with the step up in distance here. She has found plenty of bother in her past two starts and with the handy inside draw I am willing to give her another chance.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Carla Zeus (2 units at > $2.40)

 

#4 Diamond on Fire

This wide running chaser can be frustrating to watch but he is probably the strongest dog in the race. He should be able to click through the gears nicely and run into the placings. He just needs to get to the outside to show his best so staying out of early trouble is imperative.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Diamond on Fire (2 units at > $1.85)

Race 11 – 515m – Grade 5

#1 Manifold

He can be too risky early to back with confidence to win the race but he does look like a great place bet. He should stick to the rail throughout and although he is likely to be midfield at best at the first turn, I am confident he will run home strongly late.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Manifold (3 units at > $1.50)

 

#2 Tiggerlong Ray

He surprised me by winning so easily in a race over this trip on Sunday. But he did map well, was suited by the 7 dog field and got to the crown of the track without any problems (where he races best). I don’t think he will be as fortunate here and the greyhounds in Boxes 3-5 will all be vying for similar spots early.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Tiggerlong Ray (2 units at < $10.00)

Race 12 – 515m – Grade 5

#4 My Mate Lenny

He was painful to watch in his most recent run at Ballarat at around odds of $1.20 on the exchange but he still found a way to win. It appeared he was looking for further and he gets that here and in a relatively weak race to end proceedings at HQ.  He should be able to get forward early against these rivals and power away to win.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) My Mate Lenny (4 units at > $2.50)

 

#1 Riviera Cruz

She was probably the most unlucky runner in the whole meeting here last week. She looked the winner at various points but kept getting pested in the run. She tried her heart out all the way and she looks a great saver bet here. The draw looks ok and she should find the rail early and be in the thick of it.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Riviera Cruz (1 unit at > $7.50)