Rugby World Cup 2015: Australia v Wales

Posted: October 9, 2015

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RUGBY WORLD CUP 2015

Pool A

Australia v Wales

Sunday, 11 October 02:45

 

Both countries will be delighted to have qualified from the ‘Group of Death’ but all is still to play for here as the winner will be rewarded with a more desirable route to the final. Just Six Nations sides and Argentina lie in the successor’s half of the draw, while the defeated will meet a reinvigorated Springbok team in the quarters with the All Blacks also lurking in the wings as potential semi-final opponents.

Australia produced an emphatic display at Twickenham to knock out the hosts but will have to manage here without one half of their dynamic back-row duo, fantastically named ‘Pooper’, as Michael Hooper has been cited and given a week’s ban. Wales were dogged as they overcame Fiji 23-13 but crucially didn’t pick up any new injuries. Warren Gatland will be aiming for just his third win in 24th attempts as Wales boss against the Southern hemisphere giants.

A lot has been made of Wales’ poor record against the Wallabies in recent years, with some justification, as the Southern hemisphere team have won the last 10 encounters. It’s not as if Gatland’s side haven’t been in with a chance though as each of the last nine defeats by a single figure margin and the last five by a try’s difference at most. There may be some relief in the Welsh camp that this fixture is at Twickenham as they last beat the Aussies at home in 2008.

Southern hemisphere sides have lost just 5/22 World Cup matches against Six Nations teams since 2003 but three of those were against Australia. Meanwhile, none of the Six Nations successes belong to the Red Dragons as they’ve lost all four but only once has the difference exceeded 12 points and that was against New Zealand 12 years ago. Since the last World Cup the Aussies have lost just five times against Six Nations opponents, but only a third of their 15 triumphs have been by more than 10 points.

We expect Australia to continue their sensational streak against Wales but at 1.4 the win looks a little short. All signs points to a tight affair so a 7.5 point head start for Wales looks sensible but we prefer an Australia under 12.5 point winning margin/1-12 winning margin.

 

 

Key Stats

  • Australia have won their last 10 matches against Wales
  • Southern hemisphere sides have lost just 5/22 World Cup matches against Six Nations teams since 2003
  • Wales have lost their last four World Cup matches against the Southern hemisphere giants

 

Recommendation: Australia under 12.5 point winning margin/1-12 winning margin 2.58