Rugby World Cup 2015: Australia v Scotland

RUGBY WORLD CUP 2015

Quarter Final 4

Australia v Scotland

Monday, 19 October 02:00

 

Australia will take great confidence into the knockout stages after they won all four matches in this year’s Group of Death. The Wallabies went down to 13-men against Wales but their defence shone through as they didn’t concede a single point when they had two players in the bin. Interestingly, they’ve now received eight yellow cards in their last eight matches. Their form has been impressive this year generally. They’ve won seven of eight matches so far including beating New Zealand, South Africa, England, Wales and Argentina. Their win-streak now stands at five games and they’ve led at HT each time.

Australia have won 10 of their last 13 matches against Six Nations opposition though they’ve defeated the -15 point handicap just five times. Fixtures between these two nations are rare. They’ve met just nine times this century and just once this decade. Australia won the most recent head-to-head 21-15 and they’ve lost just once in the nine with six wins by at least 15 points.

Scotland had to fight hard against a strong Samoan side last week as they came back from trailing at HT to win by three. Scotland’s group games were exciting. All four matches featured at least 50 points as they struggled defensively. They conceded tries against all of their opponents including letting in four last week.  In the toughest match in their group they were thrashed 34-16 by South Africa which represented their eighth successive defeat to any of the Southern hemisphere giants including their fourth in five by at least 15 points.

This is the eighth edition of the World Cup and Australia have made it through to the knockout phase each time. They’ve only twice lost at this stage previously – to England in both 1995 and 2007 – and they’ve made it to the final three times. Scotland, meanwhile, haven’t ever reached the final and it’s been 24 years since they’ve made the final four.

The Southern hemisphere Big Three have taken on European nations in knockout matches at the World Cup five times since 2003 and, while they’ve won three matches, they’ve defeated the -15 point handicap just once.

We expect Australia to win here – they are just 1.10 to progress – and win well. They’ve been the main movers in the outright market after topping Pool A and are now firm second-favourites to become the first team to win three Webb Ellis Cups.

 

Key Stats

  • Australia have won 10 of their last 13 matches against Six Nations opposition
  • Australia won the most recent head-to-head 21-15 and they’ve lost just once in the nine with six wins by at least 15 points
  • Scotland have lost eight in a row against the Southern hemisphere Big Three

 

Recommendation: Australia -15.5 points 1.9