Rosehill, Saturday 26th March 2016: The Betfair Insider – The BMW & Vinery Stud Stakes

Posted: March 24, 2016

Current Track Rating: TBA

Rail: +5m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 25th – 27Max °C. 60% chance of rain 0-3mm. Cloudy.

Saturday 12th – 25 Max °C. 50% chance of rain 0-5mm. Partly Cloudy.

 

R6 Vinery Stud Stakes 3YO SW F G1 2000m

Speed Map

Vinery Stud Stakes

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners were SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners ran in Group races in their lead up
  • 3 of past 5 winners were 3rd or 4th up in their preparation (2-3 weeks between runs)
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced in NSW between 1500-1600m in their lead up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 3, Rail +4

1st Fenway – SP $21 56kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th Matron Stakes G3 1600m Flemington

2nd First Seal – SP $1.80 fav 56kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Coolmore G1 1500m Rosehill

3rd Thunder Lady – SP $51 56kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th Keith Nolan G3 1600m Kembla Grange

Heavy 8, Rail +4

1st Lucia Valentina (NZ) – SP $9.50 56kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 12th Coolmore G1 1500m Rosehill

2nd Solicit – SP $6.50 56kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 4th Alexandra Stakes Listed 1600m Moonee Valley

3rd Forvever Loved – SP $31 56kg BR 13 – 5th up, 3 weeks 10th Aspiration Stakes G3 1600m Randwick

Soft 7, Rail +4

1st Norzita – SP $3 fav 56kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Coolmore G1 1500m Rosehill

2nd Longport – SP $26 56kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st Keith Nolan G3 1600m Kembla Grange

3rd Habibi – SP $4.20 56kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 5 wk freshen, 1st NZ Derby G1 2400m Ellerslie

Mosheen – SP $1.60 fav 56kg BR 6 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 1st Randwick Guineas G1 1600m Randwick

Mirjulisa Lass – SP $15 56kg BR 16 – 5th up,  3 weeks, 1st 3YO BM71 27k 1800m Kensington

Major Players 

1. Jameka: Loved her performance in the G1 Rosehill Guineas last week and comes here on the quick back up. She looks well suited to 2000m and that extra run under her belt may be of benefit with a query over surface and weather. She’s always looked a run behind in her preparation and given last start wasn’t a gut buster expect her to peak here.

2. Stay With Me: Profiles well for the race coming through the G1 Randwick Guineas 1600m placing fourth behind Le Romain & Press Statement. That form has held up with Press Statement running well in the George Ryder behind Winx. Stay With Me looks like she’s been looking for 2000m all preparation and her strong mid race data suggest to me that she’ll run out a strong 2000m in this company. The experience of racing well against a big field of colts is also to her advantage.

3. Valley Girl: Winner of the G1 Herby Dyke over 2000m at Te Rapa two starts ago defeating the older horses. She appeared a run short coming into the G1 NZ Derby 2400m at her latest start based off the race profile. It was a professional performance after starting from Barrier 15 as she was snagged back to find cover, then set alight from the 600m mark to fan 10 wide on the turn and only be beaten a length. Brett Prebble has been booked to ride and she looks bombproof.

4. Honesta: Comes here third up through the G3 Keith Nolan over 1600m which isn’t the worst profile. She was ultra-consistent last preparation after being in work for what seemed to be an eternity. She sprinted well fresh over 1400m against Ghisoni in the Surround Stakes first up which tells me she’s come back a much better filly. She rated best at 2000m last preparation and will relish any cut out of the track.

5. Risqué: Very smart Ex-Kiwi filly now with David Hayes & Tom Dabernig. Had the right run in the Australian Guineas but couldn’t hold off the fast finishing Palentino and Tarzino. That form reads very well for this and given how well she settles she should handle the rise to 2000m. That said I’d still lean slightly to her stablemate Stay With Me given the difference in price.

6. Ambience: Looks at least a run behind her stablemate Asinara and her data also reflects that. Expect her to need this run and look for massive improvement before you dive into her for the ATC Oaks.

8. Capella: Has similar form lines as Valley Girl and has beaten her the last two times they have met. She still does a few things wrong in her races and hit a big flat spot in the G1 NZ Derby after being exposed at the 800m mark. She came again strongly in the final 200m of the race so I expect her to benefit strongly from this run and be a better winning hope in the ATC Oaks.

9. Asinara: Lightly raced filly by Teofilo that was given a very easy time in the G3 Keith Nolan in her lead up to this. She had the capacity to sit a lot closer in running and hit the line better than both Ambience and Honesta which makes her a strong chance here. She looks like an out and out stayer so she might need this run to top her off for the oaks but this is a filly runner that looks most likely to go to a whole new level at 2000m+ given she’s only had four career starts.

15. Happy Hannah: Dropped some big sectionals off very moderate tempo in the early section of the race in her last win over 1600m in a BM67. Whilst that isn’t the right profile of recent winners of this race, we were all given a reminder last Saturday of how fatal it can be to ignore Peter & Paul Snowden in Group 1 races. With a significant rise in class here, and expected tempo to be much stronger it’s hard to entertain her at the early market price given she’s most likely to be buried back against the fence.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Stay With Me – 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Asinara – 1 units

 

 

R7 The BMW WFA 3YO+ G1 2400m

Speed Map

The BMW

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 4th up or deeper into preparation
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come through the Ranvet Stakes
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 4 years of age or older

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good, Rail +4m

1st Hartnell – BR 3 57.5kg SP $3.10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Group 3 Sky High Stakes Group 3 2000m Rosehill

2nd To The World – BR 6 57.5kg SP $2.60F – 1st up, 13 weeks, 2nd Group 1 2500m Japan

3rd Beaten Up – BR 7 59kg SP $101 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 5th Group 3 Sky High Stakes Group 3 2000m Rosehill

Heavy, Rail +4m

1st Silent Achiever – BR 4 57kg SP $3.80 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st Ranvet Stakes 2000m Rosehill

2nd It’s a Dundeel – BR 7 58.5kg SP $5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Ranvet Stakes 2000m Rosehill

3rd Fiorente – BR 1 59kg SP $3.50 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 7th Ranvet Stakes 2000m Rosehill

Soft, Rail +4m

1st Fiveandahalfstar – BR 6 54.5kg SP $4.40 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Ranvet Stakes 2000m Rosehill

2nd Silent Achiever – BR 8 56.5kg SP $7.50 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 5th Ranvet Stakes 2000m Rosehill

3rd Sangster – BR 3 58.5kg SP $12 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 7th Ranvet Stakes 2000m Rosehill

Manighar – BR 6 59kg SP $4 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st Ranvet Stakes 2000m Rosehill

Cedarberg – SP $10 9kg BR8 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 7th Australia Cup Group 1 2000m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Our Ivanhowe: The German import is yet to win on Australian soil. He finished third in Australia’s premier 2400m handicap, the Caulfield Cup and placed in the Bart Cummings the start prior. He comes to Sydney for the first time and comes off a solid run in the Australian Cup. The Australian Cup was run at approximately 10L below average so it was no real surprise that no horse really made any ground on the two leaders in the straight. He’s a horse with well documented feet issues and will be hoping the track remains in the slow range.

2. Who Shot Thebarman: He’s fourth up from the Sky High Stakes which is a balanced preparation. Whilst he’s won at WFA but that was in the Sandown Classic at Group 2 level and will need to step up on Saturday coming from the inferior form line. He’s a 2400m specialist so this will be his grand final.

6. Mongolian Khan: After disappointing in the Chipping Norton, Mongolian Khan put in an improved performance in the Ranvet Stakes. He was beaten 4.3L by The United States on that occasion and should relish to step up to 2400m.

Having said all this the question needs to be asked ‘is Mongolian Khan going as well as he was last time in after the bad colic attack he suffered prior to the Melbourne Cup?’. The answer in my opinion is no, he is not. He looks a couple of lengths short of his best – finishing next to the likes of Dabayani and Weary. He should come on from the run but looks short enough at $6.

7. Preferment: He won the Australian Cup after a protest and presents here third up, two weeks between runs. As mentioned the Australian Cup was run at a farcical speed however Preferment did a great job to keep kicking and dive on the line after having his running line taken by Awesome Rock.

The profile is against the Australian Cup as a good path towards The BMW most recently, but with the dates changing this year it could now be the perfect race. Ranvet Stakes winners have to back up seven days later which is not normally a bad thing, unless you are being set for a race over The Championships which follow over the next two weekends. He’s yet to win at 2400m but gets his best chance in a weaker BMW than previous years.

10. Montaigne: Anthony Cummings has provided an X-Factor runner in The BMW with the shock inclusion of 3YO Montaigne into the field. Anthony has done it in the past with Fiveandahalfstar however, that runner was coming through the open age WFA path whereas Montaigne has been racing his own age.

He looks a fantastic stayer of the future however he’s done this all in his first prep and the $10 on offer looks too short at this point in time. He’s an exciting horse with a big future and can’t be dismissed.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Preferment – 5 units at $3 or more

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider