Rosehill, Saturday 20th February 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 19, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 19th – Max 30°C. Partly cloudy.

Saturday 20th – Max 28°C. Shower or two.

 

R7 Hobartville Stakes Set weights 3YO 1400m Group 2

Speed Map

Hobartville Stakes

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 0 of past 5 winners have had the same lead up race before winning the Hobartville

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result


2015 Good, Rail +6m

1st Hallowed Crown – SP $5.50 56.5kg BR4 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 4th Group 2 Roman Consul 1200m Randwick

2nd Sweynesse – SP $8.5 56.5kg BR5 – 1st up, 12 week let up, 8th Group 1 Cox Plate 2040m Moonee Valley

3rd Kermadec – SP $10 56.5kg g BR9 – 2nd up, 4th Listed Eskimo Prince 1200m Rosehill


2014 Soft, Rail +6m

1st Dissident – SP $4 56.5kg BR4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Listed Eskimo Prince 1200m Rosehill

2nd Atlante – SP $8.50 56.5kg BR1 – 1st up, 14 weeks, 1st Group 1 NZ Guineas 1600m Riccarton

3rd Savvy Nature – SP $11 56.5kg BR7 – 1st up, 13 weeks, 14th Group 1 VRC Derby 2500m Flemington


2013 Heavy, Rail +6m

1st Pierro – SP $1.80F 56.5kg BR8 – 1st up, 14 week let up, 3rd Group 1 Cox Plate 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd Rebel Dane – SP $5.50 56.5kg BR2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 2 Royal Sovereign 1200m Rosehill

3rd Proisir – SP $6 56.5kg BR10 – 1st up, 14 week let up, 8th Group 1 Cox Plate 2040m Moonee Valley
2012 – 1st Wild And Proud – SP $31 56.5kg BR6 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 1st 3Y BM79 1200m Rosehill

2011 – 1st Ilovethiscity – SP $3.50 56.5kg BR7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Group 2 Royal Sovereign 1200m Rosehill

 

Major Players 

1. Press Statement: Is first up at 1400m for the first time in his career. He took out the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas at his latest start and hit the spelling paddock with good momentum. He’s trialled well in preparation for this and Chris Waller had considered running him in the CF Orr so expect him to be very forward stepping out here. He maps perfectly and looks to have a class edge.

2. Vanbrugh: He also hit the spelling paddock with momentum after taking out his final three starts including the Group 1 Champion Stakes 2000m at his latest. It’s impossible to see him beating Press Statement at this distance first up and the odds reflect that. Rosehill Guineas is grand final day.

4. Dal Cielo: Races best between 1400-1600m. He performance in the Guineas Prelude was huge given they went miles above benchmark to the 600m mark. It was a herculean effort to be beaten under half a length. He had excuses in the Caulfield Guineas then wasn’t disgraced in the later parts of spring. He’ll get a charmed run behind Spill The Beans and if he’s continued to improve he’s a knockout.

5. Shards: He was no match for Press Statement in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes (beaten 3L) but has the fitness advantage heading into this race. He was disappointing second up last preparation which is of concern. Expecting a more positive ride than first up and can sit up and on the speed. $16+ looks a very big price in early markets.

8. Spill The Beans: He took out the Group 3 Eskimo Prince last start however you look at the formlines around Le Romain and you will find a much weaker class of horse. The ratings have Spill The Beans running a PB last start, which could lead to a ‘flat run’ on Saturday. Happy to be against him here but he will look the winner at some stage.   

10. Too Good To Refuse: Was the starting price favourite at $4.60 against Vanbrugh in the Champion Stakes over 2000m and appears big overs in early markets with a nice run under his belt first up in Queensland. Watch betting.

12. Montaigne: An up and coming galloper from the in-form Anthony Cummings stable. He’s won his last two races, the latest against older horses and is profiling as a rising star. He has to drop back 200m to 1400m for the Hobartville and this may prove his biggest hurdle. He’s untapped and flying and is one to keep you eye on for the bigger races this autumn. Should he win this you can pencil in a Group 1 this prep, his best is likely to be at 2000m.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Press Statement – 5 units at $2.70+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Dal Cielo – 1 unit at $10+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Shards – 1 unit at $12+0.5 unit

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider