Rosehill, Saturday 20th February 2016: The Betfair Insider Trial Analysis

Posted: February 19, 2016

Track: Good 3

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 19th – Max 30, Mostly sunny.

Saturday 20th – Max 26, Cloudy 50% chance of showers.

 

R4 Silver Slipper Stakes 2yo SW 1100m G2

A nice dry track should assist those who can get up on speed and running.

Speed Map

silver slipper stakes

Major Players

2. Astern: Returns to the races after a dominant debut win on a testing Randwick track. The form reads well with second place getter Niccolance finishing a similar distance behind Capitalist at his next start. Astern was seen at the Warwick Farm trials on the 8th of February where he put in an impressive all the way win in just average time.

He’s always been the stables best ‘Slipper’ chance and appears to have had a faultless preparation to date. Hugh Bowman replaces James McDonald who has gone down to Melbourne to ride Exosphere. The one to beat.

3. Defcon: Was subject to a huge betting drift three weeks ago ($2.20 – $4 officially) for his debut run in the Canonbury where he actually headed the eventual winner Tessera in the straight before peaking on his run. The jury was out on his performance that day with the camp saying the jockey went too early (disagree), while other respectable sources are saying he is just a 1000m sprinter.

Questions were suppose to be answered 7 days ago but Defcon was scratched from the Blue Diamond Prelude after small amounts of mucus was found in his system. He went around at the trials earlier this week and while was not asked for anything in the straight, he certainly didn’t look like a horse that wanted to run through the line either.

6. King Of War: Started $3.60 on debut at Rosehill before weakening out badly and being reported to have had respiratory problems when placed under pressure. That is looking like a rather strong form reference with Telperion (winning last weekend) finishing fourth.

He was given a solid hit out at the trials this week running a +10L above average trial time to win although in fairness there were a number of similar times on the day. One to take on trust but not without a chance.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Astern – 5 units at $1.70+