Rosehill Gardens, Saturday 30 January 2016: The Betfair Insider

Betfair Insider

Rosehill Gardens, Saturday 30 January 2016

 

Current Track Rating: Soft 7

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 29th – Max 31°C. Possible thunderstorm, 10-20mm.

Saturday 30th – Max 30°C. Possible shower. 5-10mm.

 

R3 Canonbury Stakes SWP 2YO C & G G3 1100m

Speed Map

canonbury stakes

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have already had a career start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been last start winners
  • 4 of past 5 winners have come from barriers 1-5
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourite

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 Soft 5, True (Rosehill)

1st Vancouver – SP $5 57.5.5kg BR 4 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 1st Breeders Plate Randwick 1000m

2nd Outreach – SP $3 54.5kg BR 6 – First starter

3rd Chamarel – SP $5.5 54.5 BR 5 – First starter

2014 Good 5, Rail +3 (Rosehill)

1st Fighting Sun – SP $1.6 54kg BR3 – 2rd up, freshened 4 weeks, 1st 2YO SWP Rosehill 1100m

2nd Mr Cha Cha – SP $12 54kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Wyong 2YO Maiden 1000m

3rd Ghibellines – SP $5.5 56kg BR 1 – 1st up, 15 weeks 4th Breeders Plate Randwick 1000m

2013 Soft 5, Rail +3m (Rosehill)

1st Never Can Tell  – SP $8.50 54 kg BR 10 – 1st up, 14 weeks 1st 2YO SWP Rosehill 1100m

2nd Whittington – SP $2 56 kg BR 1 – 1st up, 17 weeks 1st Breeders Plate Randwick 1000m

3rd Criterion – SP $9 54kg BR 4 – 1st up, 13 weeks 1st 2YO SWP Rosehill 1100m

2012 – Raceway – SP $1.24 54kg BR 3 – Let up, 6 weeks 1st 2YO SW Warwick Farm 1000m

2011 – Diamond To Pegasus – SP $26 54kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th 2YO Hcp Rosehill 1100m

 

Major Players (raced brigade)

1. Tessera: The John O’Shea trained colt put in a very professional debut performance just two weeks ago. That win holds him in good stead to be competitive here. He was used multiple times in the race to find and hold position throughout the run and will lead this event, looking the winner at some stage.

2. Jexerlent: One of three that finished behind Tessera on debut. He was restrained from a wide barrier but kept working home nicely. He’ll get a softer run in transit this time and will handle give in the ground. A knockout at cricket score odds.

3. Kings of Leon: Raced erratically on debut but gets the blinkers for this race. I’m expecting some improvement here but it’s hard to think his race manners can improve enough to turn the tables on Tessera.

4. Mount Panorama: He jumped slowly on debut also coming from the same race as Tessera. Tommy Berry was negative early and did have the option to come wide but elected to steer him into the worse going coming into the home straight. I can forgive him that run and given the weight of money for him that day we clearly have not seen the best of this colt. A rapid improvement is likely.

 

Best of the First Starters

5. Defcon: The Peter and Paul Snowden runner was the pick of the 2YO’s at the first official Randwick 2YO trials. He was spelled after that and has resumed with two solid yet not outstanding trials. He’s clearly a talented galloper that the stable have nursed to this race. He’s very short at the even money quote but hard to forget what he did at his debut trial. A big concern is that this is a long way from his grand final which is either the Blue Diamond or Golden Slipper. With that in mind it’s quite possible to see a big drift from $2, I won’t be backing him below $3.00.

6. Guard of Honour: From the Lee’s yard, Guard of Honour has trialled at the provincial’s twice and couldn’t have been much more impressive. He’s been running good time and doing it well within himself. I expect money for this runner and we must respect it.

7. Pewter: Three really good trials under his belt now and is finally set to debut. The stable know how to get them up and running and his trial form ties in with Honesty Prevails. He’s on the watch list.

8. Star of Monsoon: One super impressive trial and heads straight to the races. The stable can produce them early and this guy is bred to be good. Respecting.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – TESSERA – 1 unit at $5.50+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – MOUNT PANORAMA – 1 Unit

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – JEXERLENT – 0.5 unit

This looks a top quality Canonbury with many winners coming from this race over the next month. Keen to look after the bank and stake right down avoiding trouble.

 

R4 Widden Stakes, SWP 2YO Fillies + G3 1100m

Speed Map

widden stakes

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 5 of past 5 winners have already had a career start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have come from barriers 1-6
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been trained by Gai Waterhouse

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 Soft 5, True (Rosehill)

1st Fireworks – SP $4.20 54.5.5kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd 2YO SWP at Randwick 1100m

2nd Lake Geneva – SP $9.5 54.5kg BR 9 – First starter

3rd Igraine – SP $5 54.5 BR 2 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 2nd Gimcrack Stakes Randwick 1000m

2014 Good 3, Rail +3 (Randwick)

1st Mossfun – SP $4 54 kg BR 1 – 2rd up, freshened 7 weeks, 1st Inglis Nursery Stks, Kensington 1000m

2nd Ygritte – SP $17 54.5kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Kembla Grange 2YO Maiden 1000m

3rd Twirl – SP $2.10 fav 54kg BR 2 –  2rd up, 3 weeks 2nd 2YO SWP at Randwick 1100m

2013 Good 3, Rail +3 (Randwick)

1st Overreach  – SP $1.75 fav 54 kg BR 6 – 1st up, 12 weeks, 2nd Inglis Debut Caulfield 1000m

2nd Everage – SP $31 54 kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st 2YO Hcp at Rosehill 1200m

3rd Brilliant Bisc – SP $4.8 56kg BR 10 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 1st Gimcrack Stakes Randwick 1000m

2012 – Driefontein – SP $1.55 56.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, Freshened 5 wks, 1st 2YO GC M. Millions 1200m

2011 – Satin Shoes – SP $8.5 54.5kg BR 9 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 1st 2YO SWP Randwick 1000m

 

Major Players (raced brigade)

1. So Serene: The Gai Waterhouse trained filly loomed up to win the Inglis Nursery before just being outgunned late by Extreme Choice. They gapped the field that day and ran good time finishing 11 lengths above benchmark indicating that it will be a strong form reference. She’s had a trial since and it was great to see her settle off the speed and finish off despite being pushed along noticeably. The female side of her pedigree suggests that she’ll handle the sting out and I’m confident she will SP a clear favourite on the exchange.

2. Cudabeen: She presents as a fit and inform racehorse who’s been crying out for the 1200m. She was dynamic coming from off the speed to narrowly go down to Scarlet Rain who has since come out and won again. An awkward barrier to contest with but if she can show the same turn of foot off a faster tempo she’s a filly going places. Looks the knockout runner of the raced brigade.

3. Kentucky Miss: She’s done everything right so far in her career. She trialled nicely before winning with ease on debut at Warwick Farm. Her ability is untapped but it’s hard to get a good guide on her through a mid-week race that lacked any spikes in her data.

4. Aghna: It’s been hard to split Aghna and So Serene who have met twice at the trials only. Her only start was in the Wyong Magic Millions race and although safely held by Capitalist she stuck on quite well. At her latest trial she looked to have the edge of So Serene but until I see it under race conditions I’m happy to lean to the side of the Gai Waterhouse trained runner.

5. Chipanda: Returns to the races for just her second start. She’s been only fair in both trials and races so happy to let her pass for this.

7. Happy Feet: Bit of a smokey who has been trialling well before a complete forgive run first up. I think she will improve sharply with the blinkers on at odds.

 

Best of the First Starters

8. Foxplay: Two impressive ‘Chris Waller’ trials with the horse coasting to the line with plenty left in hand. Prefer to see.

10. Honesty Prevails: Two nice winning trial efforts have put her right in the market. Although they looked good to the eye, I doubt there was much depth there. Appears under the odds.

11. Nonpareil: Only seen once at the trials and a nice quiet effort. May lack fitness.

12. Smart Amelia: Also only seen once at the trials where she bungled the start. However when asked the question she was able to make good ground on the much fitter and experienced Aghna and So Serene. A player at odds.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – So Serene – 3 units to win ($4.80 in early markets looks a big price, will be heavily backed!)

Back on Betfair BACK – E/W – Cudabeen – 1 unit E/W at $15+

I’ll be sticking with the profile horses here. Fitness and experience is vital in these races.

 

R7 Expressway Stakes, WFA 3YO+ G2 1200m

Speed Map

Expressway Stakes

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been the SP favoruite
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 1st up or freshened (4 weeks)
  • 5 of past 5 winners have come from barriers 1-4
  • 1 of past 5 winner have been a Mare (2014 Appearance)

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 Soft 5, Rail True (Rosehill)

1st Weary – SP $7 58.5kg BR 4 – 1st up 19 weeks off a 12th in the Tramway Stakes G3 1400m Randwick

2nd Driefontein – SP $5.5 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, Freshened 3 weeks, 4th Magic Millions Cup 1400m Gold Coast

3rd Territory – SP $14 58.5 BR 7 – 2nd up, 3rd Takeover Target Stakes 1200m Gosford

2014 Good 3, Rail +3m (Randwick)

1st – Appearance – SP $16 56.5kg BR 4 – 1st up 19 weeks off a 4th in the Gold Pendant Stakes 1400m Rosehill

2nd – River Lad – SP $41 58.5kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Open Handicap 1200m Doomben

3rd – Sizzling – SP $12 58.5kg BR 11 – 1st up 15 weeks off a 7th in the Epsom Handicap 1600m Randwick.

2013 Good 3, Rail +3m (Warwick Farm)

1st – Happy Galaxy – SP $4.2 55.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Zeditave Stakes G3 1200m Caulfield

2nd – Skytrain – SP $7.5 58.5kg BR5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Canterbury Classic 1100m Canterbury

3rd – Centennial Park – SP $7.50 58.5kg BR 10 – 1st up, 16 wks off the S R Clarke Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

2012 – Rain Affair – SP $1.45 58.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up, freshened 4 weeks, 1st Carrington Stakes 1100m W Farm

2011 – Centennial Park – SP $11 58.5kg BR 3 – 1st up, 11 weeks 3rd AAMI B/Ness G3 1400m  Flemington

 

Major Players

1. River Lad: Changed trainers after an extended layoff (32 weeks) and resumed in the Takeover Target Stakes at Gosford with a one paced 6th. The run itself was just plain as the likes of Slots and I’ve Got The Looks were able to speed past him. Suspect he improves second up here on a suitable wet track but his position in running counts him out as a serious winning chance.

2. Tiger Tees: He fits the profile coming into the race 1st up but like River Lad he will appreciate the rain affected going. When resuming last time in he ran a cheeky race beaten 1.7 lengths to Terravista in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes over 1200m at Randwick. His subsequent performances in the Manikato & Darley Classic suggest he can give a sight dropping back to Group 2 level. Trial leading into this a touch disappointing to the eye.

3. Generalife: Resumes after a 9 week let up and has a fantastic record at Rosehill (7 starts, 4 wins). The 1200m is his ideal distance and should get every chance from the barrier. Last time he resumed off a 77 day break he was unlucky not to win at Group 2 level over the same distance. The sting out suits and can run a final 400m split to real in the leaders if they go too quick in front. Punters may have sacked him off his Kevin Heffernan flop at Sandown in November but I’m putting that down to a below par James McDonald ride. They went slow up front and he was held up in the home straight, his data for the day (last 400 21.24, 200 10.72) indicates he’s still close to the top of his game.

4. Our Boy Malachi: The boom horse with a record of 21 starts for 17 wins resumes for the first time in his recent career off an extended layoff (32 weeks). He bled at his last start and has been back at the trials with ‘mixed’ performances. His first trial was a nice all the way performance on his home track although he was quick to pull up after the post. At his next trial he bungled the start on a rain affected track and held his position at the back of the field when not knocked around. At his best he’s the standout but there’s enough question marks (the bleed & subsequent trials) to say he’s under the odds at $2.35 in early markets. Big market watch.

5. Big Money: You would say Big Money appears out graded if it wasn’t for a few of the question marks on the rest of the field. His first up performance in the Summer Sprint might have looked unimpressive on face value but looking deeper into the race it’s possibly the perfect tune up for this event. He over raced 1st up settling second on the speed which is totally against his usual racing pattern, he generally settles midfield. They ran fast overall time finishing 14 lengths above the benchmark. Big Money raced too fresh to knock up late to finish 2.8 lengths third, expect that run to have brought him on significantly. This time he looks likely to settle 3-4 pairs back with cover and will be in the race sweet spot with speed on up front. His trainer has indicated this is his grand final and his performances in Brisbane Group 1 races in winter tell me he’s the knockout at odds.

7. Solicit: Resumes off a 77 day break and is a quality mare when she’s fit. She lost her way but then found it again when transferred to the Gerald Ryan stable taking out Group 3 Mares races after the past two preparations. She’s just had the one quiet trial this time in when allowed to coast behind Our Boy Malachi. On face value it looks as though she might need the run but monitor the mounting yard. Expect her to drift from $6.50 in early markets and prefer her against her own sex.

8.King’s Troop: The lone 3YO of the field has put in two below par runs this time in. First up he was no match in a BM85 to Rule The River before heading up to the Gold Coast for a forgivable 8th. He steps up to a 1200m race for the first time in his career but it’s hard to come into him unless he can somehow recapture his San Domenico form three starts ago behind Japonisme.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – GENERALIFE – 3 units at $3.60+

Back on Betfair BACK – E/W – BIG MONEY – 1 unit E/W $10+

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider