Ratings2Win: Rosehill Saturday September 10th 2016 – Golden Rose

Posted: September 8, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 Golden Rose 1400m GP1 3YO SW $1,021,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 5, Rail is in the 2m position. There are further showers predicted in the lead up to Saturday so it’s difficult to see how this track will improve from its current rating and could easily get worse. The best will most likely be 2+ off the fence.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Kerrin McEvoy on Thronum will most likely look to lead with others like El Divino, Derryn and Chamalu all contenders for the on pace positions.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 4 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. Based on current fixed odds at the time of writing there appears to be some value in our top selection. Favourite punters have fared not too badly over the last 10 years with 3 winning which is slightly below market expectations.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

13. Omei Sword: Was impressive winning first up when we had her a standout. Is a promising type of filly and despite Joao Moreira recent record down under profiles as the one they all have to beat.

Neutral Horses

1. Astern: Is currently contesting the second line of betting with Divine Prophet. On face value whilst winning OK first up this race profiles as a totally different setup to what he struck last start. The step up in trip off that heavy track win is the main query for me. Chance but have to oppose at current odds.

4. Divine Prophet: Was impressive winning from the back in a slowly run race first up. With further improvement and the step up to 1400m, this colt can finish hard. Map the obvious disadvantage and current odds do not appeal but is the main danger to Omei Sword.

12. Yankee Rose: Her first up near victory in the Golden Slipper was a gallant effort. The blinkers go back on which is a plus but first up at 1400m and coming off two less than impressive trials I would rather risk.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one main and two place potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Omei Sword at $3.50+ (1.4 units)

There are two horses down from Queensland that interest me. Both horses will race towards the rear of the field are very long odds to win this race however either would not totally surprise if they ran a competitive race here. Oink and Oreilly Cyrus both ran very well last time against the bias and at massive odds for the place could provide a big return for very little outlay. If playing in this race, then I suggest you consider backing them at the place as suggested below.

 

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Oink at $18+ (0.2 units)

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Oreilly Cyrus at $18+ (0.2 units)

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