Ratings2Win: Rosehill, Saturday August 27th 2016 – Run To The Rose Analysis

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Run To The Rose 1200m GP2 3YO SWP $177,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position. There are further showers predicted in the lead up to Saturday so it’s difficult to see how this track will improve from its current rating. The best going might be 3+ off the fence.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Hugh Bowman on El Divino or James McDonald on Astern look the two likely to sort out the lead with Tim Clark on Gadfly having to make an early decision whether to push for a forward spot. Glyn Schofield on Good Standing looks to face a wide trip which may not be a disadvantage on the Heavy track.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners in single figures. The R2W computer mirrors that but only one appears to be value based on current fixed odds at the time of writing. Favourite punters have enjoyed great success in this race with seven of the last 10 saluting. These early 3YO races can be tricky as we don’t really know how the 2YO horses will come back. Trials are obviously a guide but resuming with a lack of race fitness on the heavy track could prove significant. Our focus is therefore focused around the 3YOs already up and running.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

4. Star Turn: Returned winning impressively beating the talented and very fit Tango Rain. The figures recorded in that race well and truly eclipse anything produced from last season’s 2YO crop lining up here. Maps well and if he handles the going looks a worthy favourite.

Neutral Horses

9. Mediterranean: Is third up into this race which should ensure he is at or close to his peak. Probably should have won last time on the Heavy 10. Had 21 days off which is reassuring for his backers. Will be running on but is no value on current markets.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Star Turn at $3.30+ (1.5 units)

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