Ratings2Win: Rosehill, Saturday August 13th 2016 – San Domenico Stakes Analysis

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Feature Race Analysis

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R5 San Domenico Stakes 1100m GP3 3YO SWP $151,000


Currently rated Soft 7, Rail is in the 6m position. There is no further rain predicted so the track should be a 7 at worst but more likely in the 5-6 range. The 6m rail out from the True position at the last meeting on what could be a drying track suggests that the best going/position might be on pace where the inside lanes could prove best in the straight.


The last five editions of this race have seen mostly a below average to average tempo. For Saturday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: The 1100m commences from a Shute with a long enough run before runner’s reach the first turn. The small field should ensure all runners can find their position. Kerrin McEvoy on Tango Rain will probably look to control the race from the front.

Race Overview

Early markets have Capitalist a dominant short priced favourite. Snowden runners historically perform particularly well fresh. Blake Shinn rides the Snowden elect. His ability at Rosehill is significantly better than any of his fellow rivals lining up in this race, with a very impressive 25.4% strike rate and 62.32% POT across all odds runners in the last 12 months.

But before rushing to back Capitalist at short odds, consider the fact that Golden Slipper winners resuming in their 3YO preparations do not have a good record however is if you are inclined to follow the opinion of the handicapper then Capitalist is almost unbeatable enjoying a 26-point gap on its nearest rival.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

4. Tango Rain: Promising colt who defied the bias last time to win. On paper he may not have beaten much but he run decent adjusted time on the Heavy track that day. I like the fact that his trainer Gerald Ryan has given him 21 days off into this race. He profiles as the main danger to the favourite.

Neutral Horses

1. Capitalist: Dominant short priced favourite. Class runner from the 2YO season. First attempt on rain affected surface and 147 days off are the queries. Likely winner but no edge at the current fixed odds of $1.90.

3. Star Turn: Another colt resuming from the Slipper with ability. Attempting a rain affected surface first up (but has won on a soft 5), 147 days off its likely get back map position are the queries.

Disadvantaged Horses


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tango Rain at $6.00+ (0.8 units)

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