Ratings2Win: Randwick, Saturday September 3rd 2016 – Ming Dynasty Quality

Posted: September 2, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Ming Dynasty Quality 1400m GP3 3YO HCP $126,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the 6m position. There are further showers predicted in the lead up to Saturday so it’s difficult to see how this track will improve from its current rating and could easily get worse. The best going might be 3+ off the fence.

Tempo 

The R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.

Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts in a chute allowing all runners enough time to position their mounts before a half turn. Tim Clark on Bit Dusty has the speed to lead comfortably if desired. Rory Hutchings on Skylight Glow can park on leader on or 1 off the fence.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners in single figures yet the longest priced horse is currently $14 suggesting the market labels this race an open affair with the probability of selecting the individual winner one out a more difficult task. The R2W computer has four runners in single figures. Based on current fixed odds at the time of writing and away from the current favourite, there appears to be only one (yet small value play) with one other runner considered dangerous.

Favourite punters haven’t enjoyed great success in this race over the last five years with only one saluting but all winners were single figure odds. Only two from the last 14 winners have been at double figure odds.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

4. High Mist: 35 days off but has trialled since its latest run over 1500m at Rosehill where he acquitted himself well, Bowman sticks.

3. Swear: Put straight out after winning on debut. Has trialled twice leading into this with Tommy Berry taking the reins. This stable has an excellent record with first up runners, one that is undervalued by the market. Can finish off and appeals as the main danger to our top selection.

7. Bit Dusty: Stepping up in distance and class is enough for most punters to be concerned along with the fact that the fence that day was an advantage, but this horse ran good time and looks to have improvement. Possible saver.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) High Mist at $3.75+ (1 unit)

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