Ratings2Win: Randwick, Saturday September 3rd 2016 – Furious Stakes

Posted: September 2, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 Furious Stakes 1200m GP2 3YO F SW $177,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the 6m position. There are further showers predicted in the lead up to Saturday so it’s difficult to see how this track will improve from its current rating and could easily get worse. The best going might be 3+ off the fence.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Speed Map

Map Notes: Anyone of 4 of these look likely to contest the lead with perhaps Tommy Berry on Global Glamour using the gate to try and hold that position.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have six runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four runners. Half this field resumes from a spell with another off a 35-day break which would often enough deter many punters from betting. Based on current fixed odds at the time of writing and away from the current favourite whom I am happy to oppose at the price, there appears to be two value plays (although like the Ming Dynasty the advantage is thin). Favourite punters haven’t fared too badly over the last 10 years with three winning slightly below market expectations.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

7. Foxplay: Resumes off a 63-day break has trialled since. All three runs last preparation were good and soft tracks weren’t an issue. If she handles the heavy, then she is the main value play.

2. Honesty Prevails: Another who is resuming, but is off a 168-day spell. Trialled twice leading into this. On debut looked good winning by a margin on a wet track before excuses at here second run. If she is close to her best, then she is worth saving on.

12. Global Glamour: Been off the scene for 217 days. Won by a big space in fast time on debut over 1000m at Kembla. Has had two trials in preparation for this. Main query for her is first up on the heavy surface over 1200m.

8. Awoke: Has nice ability and is resuming here off 63-day break. Went out well and ha trialled in preparation for this. Will be running on but no value on current fixed odds.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Foxplay at $3.75+ (0.8 units)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Honesty Prevails at $8+ (0.2 units)

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