Ratings2Win: Randwick Saturday September 17th 2016 – Tea Rose Stakes

Posted: September 15, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R4 Tea Rose Stakes 1400m GP2 3YO F SW $177,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 6, Rail is in the true position. There is a 50% chance of up to a further 3mm of rain tomorrow. If that does eventuate then the worst we should face is the current track rating, if not then an upgrade is a real possibility. The best going will most likely be 2+ off the fence.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Tim Clark on Bacarella leads and could run them along however media reports suggest that the connections may consider a change of tactics in a bid to help her run out the 1400m. Tommy Berry on Global Glamour can settle closer from the good draw.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 6 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 4. Based on current fixed odds at the time of writing (Thursday) there appears to be some value in our top selection. Favourite punters have fared very well with 7 of the last 15 winning which is well above market expectations however in recent times the race has thrown some surprise results. Under the set weight conditions of this race the official handicapper rating (Hr) often carries significance and is a variable punters would be wise to include when assessing these types of events.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

1. Foxplay: Was visually impressive winning first up when we had her a standout. Is a promising type of filly who dominates the official handicapper ratings with a 3kg advantage over her nearest rival based on these figures. Is the one to beat again.

Neutral Horses

3. Bacarella: Ran them along last start and can easily lead again should connections decide. 3rd up into this race will have her close to her peak and profiles as one of the winning chances.

4. Skylight Glow: Second up into this and gets blinkers for the first time. Resumed over the 1400m which I think helps her chances despite that race being run at a slow tempo. Definite chance.

6. Global Glamour: Faced a wide trip and was green first up. Up in distance and drawn more favourably will ensure that she can settle much closer. Is a definite chance however on current odds is well under our assessed price.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Foxplay at $2.65+ (1.5 units)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Skylight Glow at $7+ (0.6 units)

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