Ratings2Win: Randwick Saturday September 17th 2016 – Bill Ritchie Handicap

Posted: September 15, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R8 Bill Ritchie Handicap 2400m GP1 3YO F SW $500,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 6, Rail is in the true position. There is a 50% chance of up to a further 3mm of rain tomorrow. If that does eventuate then the worst we should face is the current track rating, if not then an upgrade is a real possibility. The best going will most likely be 2+ off the fence.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: A lack of speed on paper makes this map a little tricky to assess. The eventual speed of this race will largely be influenced by the tactics adopted by the main cluster of on pace runners.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 5 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 3. Based on current fixed odds at the time of writing (Thursday) there appears to be some value in our second selection but considerably more in our top pick. Favourite punters have fared quite well with 6 of the last 15 winning which is above market expectations. Trainer John O’Shea has a strong hand in this race with the R2W computer assessing that he wins this race 40 times in 100 whereas the current fixed odds market is suggesting this will only occur 28 times in 100. We believe this discrepancy is worth exploiting.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

11. Handfast: Won in listed grade last preparation and resumed with a positive performance at Rosehill three weeks ago. The lack of speed on paper brings this gelding right into calculations. Current prices certainly mean his backers are getting value.

Neutral Horses

5. Federal: Went very well resuming. Steps up to the 1400m from the 1000m first up which is a slight query. Maps worse than the stablemate (Handfast) but can finish off hard and be somewhere in the finish.

4. Sons Of John: Ran out of condition resuming and went better than the beaten margin suggests. Is definitely up to this grade and can improve 2nd up into this especially with a map advantage.

Disadvantaged Horses

8. Tsaritsa: Went OK first up but maps poorly here and would need to improve considerably to justify her current fixed odds. Prefer against her own sex.

1. Happy Clapper: Another who maps in an unfavourable position. Will need be at his best to overcome the lack of early speed. Raced considerably below his figures of last preparation when resuming and at current prices is another to avoid.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two main potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Handfast at $5+ (1 unit)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Federal at $5+ (0.3 units)

Back on Betfair BACK – SAVE (WIN) Sons Of John at $10+ (0.2 units)

©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2016. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. The Early Speed Map graphical format is provided to Betfair by Racing and Sports Pty Ltd. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.

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