Ratings2Win: Randwick Saturday October 8th 2016 – Spring Champion Stakes and Angst Stakes

Posted: October 7, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Spring Champion Stakes 2000m GP1 3YO SW $505,000

Track

Currently rated Good 3 Rail is in the 6m position. Mainly fine with the possibility of a further shower or two of up to 1mm on Saturday should ensure that we get no worse than a Good4. With a 6m rail and a drying track the best going could be along the inside or at worst 2-3 off. If the forecast of strong southerly winds eventuates, they could play a significant factor.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Below Average tempo.

Speed Map

Map Notes: Tim Clark can lead on Ready Fire Aim. Tommy Berry faces a challenge early on Swear which will determine whether he faces a wide trip.

Race Overview

Yankee Rose is the early favourite attempting 2000m for the first time in a race devoid of any early speed. The official handicapper ratings (Hr) also have Yankee Rose as the dominant selection in fact she has 13 ratings points (6.5kg) on her nearest rival. The R2W computer concedes that she deserves favouritism but we cannot get her quite as short as the current fixed odds markets. Based on current fixed odds at the time of writing (Thursday) there is no value in our top selection. Whilst we acknowledge that her price may drift beyond her rated price we believe that the better wagering opportunity is to oppose the current second favourite.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

11. Yankee Rose: Very talented GP1 winning filly. Resumed four weeks ago at Rosehill in the Golden Rose where she appeared to have every chance. Improved 2up over 1600m and now steps to 2000m for the first time in a race devoid of pace which is a concern. Dominates the handicapper ratings and is well treated under the set weights conditions. Can give this a terrific shake but for the reasons already stated we would rather keep our powder dry.

3. Swear: Lightly raced colt with nice ability. Third up into this race and has put together two competitive ratings that entitle him to be the logical second selection behind the favourite. Tommy Berry will need to make a decision early as to tactics or risk facing a wide trip.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Prized Icon: Fourth up into this race should see this colt near or at his peak. Maps well enough but we have genuine concerns about his ability to run out a strong 2000m. At the current odds we think he is worth risking.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Prized Icon up to at $5.50 (lay liability exposure up to 4% of betting bank)

R8 Angst Stakes 1600m GP3 4YO+ MARES SWP $151,000

Track

Currently rated Good 3 Rail is in the 6m position. Mainly fine with the possibility of a further shower or two of up to 1mm on Saturday should ensure that we get no worse than a Good4. With a 6m rail and a drying track the best going could be along the inside or at worst 2-3 off. If the forecast of strong southerly winds eventuates, they could play a significant factor.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Speed Map

Map Notes: Christian Reith can lead on Extensible. Tim Clark on Dixie Blossoms trails the leader with Kathy O’Hara on Rocket Commander on his inside.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 3 runners all vying for favouritism. The R2W computer top selection is some value currently and with decisive map advantage over one of the market fancied rivals provides an edge worth exploiting.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

7. Dixie Blossoms: Very consistent mare who is fourth up into this race. Maps particularly well and enjoys a decisive map advantage over one of the main market chances in Lady Le Fay. Will be in this for a long way.

Neutral Horses

8. Extensible: One of the main chances who likes to race on pace. Handles all types of racing surfaces and is racing in top form. Looms as the main danger to our top selection but is currently under our assessed price.

9. Happy Hannah: Second up into this race but improved sharply off a similar setup last preparation albeit in easier grade. Brenton Avdulla goes on which is a plus. Knockout hope at good odds.

Disadvantaged Horses

4. Lady Le Fay: Second up into this race and is currently one of the main market hopes. Whilst we concede her first up effort was good enough on face value, we note that the race was very bunched at the finish and we feel that she will be more effective over 2000m. He natural racing style does her no favours.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dixie Blossoms at $3.70+ for 1.35 units

Back on Betfair BACK SAVE (WIN) Happy Hannah at $11+ for 0.15 units

 

Keep an eye on Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulD01 for any track updates during the day.

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