Ratings2Win: Randwick Saturday October 1st 2016 – Roman Consul

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Feature Race Analysis

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R5 Roman Consul 1200m GP2 3YO SW $302,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 3m position. Given the showers/rain over Sydney at present we will most likely see a downgrade by race time Saturday. The best going will most likely be 2-3+ off the fence.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: El Divino gets blinkers and can lead here for Tim Clark. Russian Revolution should park outside lead. Astern camps around midfield back in distance here.

Race Overview

Astern dominates betting in early fixed odds markets with Capitalist resuming off a 49 day break the only other horse at single figure odds. The official handicapper ratings (Hr) only suggest the top two as winning chances with Astern enjoying a 4-point (2kg) advantage over Capitalist. The R2W computer suggests that the gap between these two is greater than what the Hr suggest. The Snowden stable have expressed concern as to whether they will run Capitalist on soft ground. In any case this is Astern race to lose and as such on current fixed odds is worth supporting BUT ONLY in the event that Capitalist stays in the race.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

1. Astern: Always had significant ability but in his two runs back this preparation this colt has stamped himself as the dominant 3YO. Looks a moral.

Neutral Horses

2. Capitalist: Terrific 2YO who capped off his season with a win in The Golden Slipper. Resumed as a 3YO in the San Domenico and didn’t let down, stable blames the soft track for the defeat. Whether the Snowden stable decide to run or not I don’t believe will change the result.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race BUT ONLY in the event that Capitalist stays in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Astern at $1.55+ (3.2 units)

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