Ratings2Win: Randwick Saturday October 1st 2016 – Flight Stakes

Posted: September 29, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 Flight Stakes 1600m GP1 3YO F SW $505,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 3m position. Given the showers/rain over Sydney at present we will most likely see a downgrade by race time Saturday. The best going will most likely be 2-3+ off the fence.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: A lack of speed on paper makes this map a little tricky to assess. The eventual speed of this race will largely be influenced by the tactics adopted by the on pace runners.

Race Overview

In light of the shock scratching of Omei Sword early fixed odds markets now have Yankee Rose a dominant odds-on favourite. The official handicapper ratings (Hr) also have Yankee Rose as the dominant selection in fact she has 21 ratings points (10.5kg) on her nearest rival. The R2W computer concedes that she deserves favouritism but we cannot get her as short as the current fixed odds markets. Based on current fixed odds at the time of writing (Thursday) there appears to be some value in our second selection.

Runner Analysis

flight-stakes-runner-analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

1. Yankee Rose: Very talented GP1 winning filly. Resumed 3 weeks ago at Rosehill in the Golden Rose where she appeared to have every chance. Looks to map perfectly and should give this a terrific shake but we don’t think she is a betting proposition at the current odds.

7. Awoke: Always had an opinion of this filly since her debut win. Resumed on a Heavy 9 here and was injured in the run. Improved 2up and never got clear late behind Foxplay and most of her opponents here. Despite mapping back here the small field should ensure that she gets her chance can win.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Awoke at $5+ (0.8 units)

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