Ratings2Win: Randwick, Saturday October 15th 2016 – The Nivison Stakes

Posted: October 14, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R8 The Nivison Stakes 1200m GP3 4YO+ MARES SWP $151,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in true position. Predicted Sunny conditions should ensure that we get no worse than a Good4. With a true rail the best going could be 2+ off in the straight.

Keep an eye on Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Below Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: A lack of early tempo should see either Zin Zan Elsie or Cana dictate the lead. Horses mapping worse than midfield are at a distinct disadvantage.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has three. The majority of this field is either off a short break or resuming from a spell which adds uncertainty when assessing their chances. On current prices at the time of writing (Thursday) there is value in our second and third rated selections. Accordingly, we will be supporting these to beat our top rated selection Egyptian Symbol who despite being a definite winning chance is poor odds therefore cannot be considered.

Runner Analysis

nivison-stakes-runner-analysis

Advantaged Horses

2. Artistry: Very consistent mare who resumes off a 112-day spell. Normally races well fresh and maps to be within striking distance on the turn and is definitely the main value in the race.

Neutral Horses

4. Nancy: Raced on what was inferior ground first up. Off a 35-day freshen and position just behind a group of horses that can take her into the race at the right time, definite saver.

10. Egyptian Symbol: Definite winning chance but seems like poor odds currently ($2.90). Maps OK and will be running on.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Artistry at $6.50+ (0.9 units)

Back on Betfair BACK – SAVE (WIN) Nancy at $11+ (0.1 units)

©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2016. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. The Early Speed Map graphical format is provided to Betfair by Racing and Sports Pty Ltd. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.

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