Ratings2Win: Randwick, Saturday August 6th 2016 – Missile Stakes Race Analysis

Posted: August 5, 2016

Ratings2Win Betfair

Feature Race Analysis

Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au

R5 Missile Stakes 1200m GP2 3YO+ WFA $177,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 10, Rail is in the true position. The likelihood further showers leading up to Saturday will most likely ensure that the track remains in the heavy range. The rail in the true position suggests that the best going might be 5+ off in the straight.

Tempo & Speed Map

The last two editions of this race have seen a slow tempo prevail. For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.

Map Notes: The 1200m commences from a Shute with a long run before runner’s reach the home turn. This combined with the small field gives all riders the chance to settle their horses where comfortable. Kerrin McEvoy takes the reins for the first time on Capitalist and will probably look to control the race from the front. An alternative is that he allows the stablemate Tycoon Tara to cross and he sits on its outside.   .

Race Overview

Early markets have Capitalist a dominant short priced favourite. Snowden runners historically perform particularly well fresh. The seasoned Rebel Dane resumes as the second favourite and has a decent fresh record. Interestingly Blake Shinn rides the Snowden stablemate which is making its debut for the stable. His ability at Rosehill is significantly better than any of his fellow rivals lining up in this race, with a very impressive 25.4% strike rate and 62.32% POT across all odds runners in the last 12 months.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

7. Capitalist: Dominant short priced favourite. Class runner from the 2YO season. First attempt on a Heavy surface and 140 days off are the queries. Likely winner but no edge at the current fixed odds of $1.55.

4. Mount Nebo & 5. Wouldn’t It Be Nice: Whilst they lack the class they are both very fit horses who will appreciate the wet surface. Wouldn’t surprise.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Rebel Dane: Decent fresh record who has performed competitively at WFA level however I feel that his recent trial wasn’t as good as previous lead up trials. The task of attempting this race first up after 112 days off on the Heavy surface is the big question. Current fixed odds prices do not factor in these risks.

 

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be three potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mount Nebo at $17+ (0.3 units)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Wouldn’t It Be Nice at $21+ (0.2 units)

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Rebel Dane up to $7 (Lay liability exposure up to 3% of betting bank)

©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2016. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. The Early Speed Map graphical format is provided to Betfair by Racing and Sports Pty Ltd. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.

Related Articles