Feature Race Analysis
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R5 Missile Stakes 1200m GP2 3YO+ WFA $177,000
Currently rated Heavy 10, Rail is in the true position. The likelihood further showers leading up to Saturday will most likely ensure that the track remains in the heavy range. The rail in the true position suggests that the best going might be 5+ off in the straight.
Tempo & Speed Map
The last two editions of this race have seen a slow tempo prevail. For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.
Map Notes: The 1200m commences from a Shute with a long run before runner’s reach the home turn. This combined with the small field gives all riders the chance to settle their horses where comfortable. Kerrin McEvoy takes the reins for the first time on Capitalist and will probably look to control the race from the front. An alternative is that he allows the stablemate Tycoon Tara to cross and he sits on its outside. .
Early markets have Capitalist a dominant short priced favourite. Snowden runners historically perform particularly well fresh. The seasoned Rebel Dane resumes as the second favourite and has a decent fresh record. Interestingly Blake Shinn rides the Snowden stablemate which is making its debut for the stable. His ability at Rosehill is significantly better than any of his fellow rivals lining up in this race, with a very impressive 25.4% strike rate and 62.32% POT across all odds runners in the last 12 months.
7. Capitalist: Dominant short priced favourite. Class runner from the 2YO season. First attempt on a Heavy surface and 140 days off are the queries. Likely winner but no edge at the current fixed odds of $1.55.
4. Mount Nebo & 5. Wouldn’t It Be Nice: Whilst they lack the class they are both very fit horses who will appreciate the wet surface. Wouldn’t surprise.
1. Rebel Dane: Decent fresh record who has performed competitively at WFA level however I feel that his recent trial wasn’t as good as previous lead up trials. The task of attempting this race first up after 112 days off on the Heavy surface is the big question. Current fixed odds prices do not factor in these risks.
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