Ratings2Win: Randwick Race 7, Saturday 17th December 2016 – Villiers Stakes

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Villiers Stakes, 1600m GP2 3YO+ HCP $252,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 5 Rail is in the true position. Based on predicted rain leading into Saturday we suggest that we will most likely see a downgrade by race day into the Heavy range. The best going will most likely be 2-3+ off the fence.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Looks like a solid pace with Tim Clark leading on pre-race favourite Fabrizio. Jockeys on Hopfgarten, Red Excitement and Berry Delicious will need some luck or potentially face a wide trip.

Race Overview

Currently fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has only two. Our top-rated selection is currently around our assessed price. Our second selection is currently value and worth backing. This race can often throw a winner at good odds.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

7. Fabrizio: In terrific form, having won three of his last four by convincing margins. Has proven effective on rain affected ground and Tim Clark has the advantage of controlling this race and steering his mount to the right part of the track in the straight. Looks the one to beat but would be looking for $4.20+ before considering betting.

Neutral Horses

15. High Midnight: Showed good fight to win last start after leading at +5 lengths above PAR to the 600m. 3rd up into this race, James Cummings will have him ready to run a competitive race. On current fixed odds appeals as one worth supporting.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) High Midnight at $8.50+ (0.6 unit)

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