Ratings2Win Midweek Metro Preview: Sunshine Coast Race 8, Wednesday 31st August 2016

Posted: August 31, 2016

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Midweek Metro Preview

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R8 Sunshine Coast 1200m CL4 HCP $20,000

Track

Good 4, Rail is in the true position.

Tempo 

The R2W Early Speed Map predicts a Below Average to Average tempo.

Race Overview

The early morning fixed odds markets suggests that this race will be won 79 times in 100 by one of top two in the betting. The R2W computer agrees with this assessment so where do we find value in a situation like this? The official handicapper has improved its rating for the early favourite Colinelle by 6 rating points (3kg) since he and the second favourite today Oberland last met at Doomben on 23 July whilst the latter has seen no increase to its OHR.

We do not agree that the gap between the two horses is accurately reflected by those differences. Based on the circumstances of today’s race we believe there is value to be found in exploiting this situation in what we believe is a handicapping anomaly.

Advantaged Horses

5. Oberland: Meets Colinelle 3kg better for their last clash and gets the last shot at the early favourite. Damien Browne rides and should be able to position his mount around 1 length or so behind the Colinelle. Forget its last start Eagle Farm run.

Neutral Horses

1. Colinelle: The logical danger to our top selection but for reasons already stated above represents no value currently based on fixed odds markets.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Oberland at $2.45+ (1.6 units)

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