Ratings2Win Midweek Metro Preview: Sunshine Coast Race 4, Wednesday 24th August 2016

Posted: August 24, 2016

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Midweek Metro Preview

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R4 Sunshine Coast 1600m CL5 HCP $20,000

Track

Soft 5, Rail is in the true position.

Tempo & Speed Map

The R2W Early Speed Map predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Race Overview

The early morning fixed odds markets suggests that this race will be won 59 times in 100 by one of top two in the betting however the longest priced horse in this race at the time of writing is $12 suggesting it’s an open affair with all horses given some chance. Our assessments suggest that whilst that may be the case there are weaknesses associated with some of the market chances and therefore this race appeals as a good opportunity to support our top rated elect.

Advantaged Horses

6. Silento: Third up today and will appreciate the step up in trip and the soft conditions. James Orman will need to be looking to get off the inside and come around runners in the straight.

Neutral Horses

4. Fusina: Stablemate of Silento who appreciated the fast tempo last time when well ridden to score. Looks the logical second selection on this race however won’t get the same pace conditions and is currently no value in fixed odds markets.

1. Yoho: May not have handled the Eagle Farm circuit the last two starts and invariably races well here.

Disadvantaged Horses

2. Le Chef: Is third up today and steps up in distance from 1200 to 1600 which is a big question mark for me.

8. Raffinato: Hit the line well enough last time when ridden back which is out of its normal pattern. Reached a new personal best doing so but is another who may well struggle at the 1600.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Silento at $2.90+ (1.4 units)

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