Ratings2Win Midweek Metro Preview: Gold Coast Race 2, Wednesday July 20 2016

Posted: July 20, 2016

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Midweek Metro Preview

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R2 Gold Coast 1200m MDN 2YO HCP $20,000

Track

Soft 6, Rail is at 3.5m

Tempo

The R2W Early Speed Map predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Race Overview

The early morning markets suggest two main winning chances one of which is a dominant short priced favourite. This race appeals as an opportunity to oppose the favourite and support on a win/place basis a runner outside the two main market chances.

Advantaged Horses

11. Nordic Show: Having its third career run today and gets a massive jockey switch with Jeff Lloyd taking the reins. Settled close enough to the pace last start but was forced to race wide without cover over this track and distance and returned figures that suggest she is some chance here today of upsetting the favourite.

Neutral Horses

1. Doubt Defying: Was unlucky not to win last time after suffering interference at a vital stage before running on to just miss at good odds. Given that performance, the market has offered this horse up at short odds and although it looks very hard to beat on paper, its price provides no long term edge when compared to its assessed probability.

Disadvantaged Horses

7. Shuda Known Better: Only had two career starts. It’s first start definitely gives this horse a chance but it then fell before being spelled. Resumes here off a 202-day break and has had no official trials in which to get a guide. Can feature if ready but the booking of Tegan Harrison and a likely lack of fitness make this horse one to avoid. The late betting movements on the Exchange will provide the best guide to its chances today.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Nordic Show at $6.00+ for 0.8 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Nordic Show at $2.25+ for 2.2 units

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