Ratings2Win Midweek Metro Preview: Doomben Race 6, Wednesday 23rd November 2016

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Midweek Metro Preview

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R6 Doomben 1200m CL4 F&M HCP $20,000

Track

Good 4, Rail is at 7m.

Tempo 

The R2W Early Speed Map predicts a Below Average tempo.

Race Overview

The early morning fixed odds markets have seven runners at single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has three. This race appeals as a good opportunity to support our top two rated selections but beware there is a caveat.

Advantaged Horses

9. Ra Ra Epic: Solid run when resuming when carrying 59kg despite the beaten margin of 2.1 lengths. Wasn’t fancied that day so we can expect improvement today. Drops 4.5kg and will try and press forward from the gate. $5 on current fixed odds appeals.

7. Final Over: Changed stables before she resumed after trialling well to win the same race contested by Ra Ra Epic. Ridden cold that day by Stephanie Lacy which is typical of her style she finished off in decent sectionals after being held up in the straight. Can improve and seems good odds again. The key to her today is that she needs a run-on track pattern to show her best so with the rail out 7m this could prove problematical. Looks a good value odds chance again if conditions suit.

Neutral Horses

NIL

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Hesitation: Resumes off a 133-day spell without a trial. The market seems to have placed too much emphasis on her good first up record (albeit in races with substandard figures) and accordingly the $5 in current fixed odds markets make her one to avoid.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ra Ra Epic at $3.30+ (1.5 units)

AND

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Final Over at $3.80+ (1.3 units) – see comment for conditions of bet

OR

Back on Betfair BACK – SAVE (WIN) Final Over at $3.80+ (0.3 units) – if track pattern does not suit still save

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